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INTERNATIONAL DIARY SEPTEMBER 26, 2008 by Kellie Reilly According to the ancient Stoic philosophers, one should always maintain a calm, impassive, imperturbable temperament in the midst of the gravest trials. But even the Stoics themselves would have been severely tested by the vicissitudes of York's Ebor meeting, which was swept away by rainfall of biblical proportions. The long hoped-for clash of generations between DUKE OF MARMALADE (Danehill) and NEW APPROACH (Galileo [Ire]) in the Juddmonte International (Eng-G1) was scrapped one day, then postponed, then canceled again. And at each turn of events, there were the gnawing questions: after all of the exciting build-up, was it really going to come to nothing? If the Juddmonte were saved, but run on a bog, would The Duke still take part? Would New Approach remain on course for his first outing since his bout of muscle soreness, or would the Derby (Eng-G1) hero suffer another 11th hour setback and not make it to the gate? Thankfully, the Juddmonte was salvaged, but only by rerouting it south to Newmarket on August 23, four days after its original date on the calendar. Despite my 96 hours' worth of angst, both The Duke and New Approach squared off at last. Or, to be more precise, they were in the same race, but New Approach never got close enough to eyeball The Duke. For that reason, the clash itself proved to be disappointingly anticlimactic. New Approach was strangled back early in a questionable tactic, considering that he was cutting back to 1 1/4 miles, and was bound to be even more headstrong than usual in light of his returning from an enforced absence. While this rating tactic made sense in the Derby, when venturing into unknown territory at 1 1/2 miles, it did not appear to be as clever here, when stamina was not an issue, he was sure to fight for his head, and he did, in the most self-defeating manner possible. Worse still, he was handing an irrecoverable tactical advantage to the older, wiser, stalking Duke. In contrast, The Duke once again traveled superbly, just drafting in the wake of his pacemaker, before surging to the front. A serious challenge came not from New Approach, who was making little headway from farther back, but rather from PHOENIX TOWER (Chester House), who unleashed a bold bid and for a stride or two looked as if he just might pull an upset. But The Duke had something in reserve and powered up the hill to win by three-quarters of a length, with New Approach staying on late for a non-threatening third. The Duke thus extended his 2008 record to a perfect five-for-five while racing exclusively in Group 1 company. It may be significant, however, that the Aidan O'Brien charge had to work harder to dispose of Phoenix Tower here than at Royal Ascot, where The Duke strode imperiously clear in the Prince of Wales's S. (Eng-G1), and Phoenix Tower was no more than a bit player in second. He followed up that triumph with a heroic score in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth S. (Eng-G1), and one wonders whether those strenuous efforts have left their mark. For whatever it's worth, King George near-misser PAPAL BULL (Montjeu [Ire]) came back to run a listless third, later promoted to second, in the August 17 Rheinland-Pokal (Ger-G1) at Cologne. Papal Bull's connections claimed that he did not handle the course, but might he just as easily regressed off that career-best in the King George? In a similar vein, does the Juddmonte suggest that The Duke has already peaked, and may be on a gently downward slope? I certainly hope not, but neither can the hypothesis be discounted. His next engagement may tell us a lot, depending on where it is. O'Brien has indicated that he may aim for the October 5 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1), and a rematch with Papal Bull, but only if the ground is good. If the forecast looks dodgy for Paris, The Duke will instead try the synthetic at Dundalk on October 3, a clear scouting expedition in advance of a possible Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) bid. Unfortunately, the Arc and Breeders' Cup have both been ruled out for New Approach, so he will not get the opportunity to revisit matters with The Duke. It's tempting to imagine what might have happened in the Juddmonte if New Approach had taken up a tracking position, whence he could well have been in the tussle with The Duke and Phoenix Tower. Given The Duke's race-fitness, and undoubted class, he would surely have outfought New Approach to the line, but I suspect the margin would have been a good deal closer. The two were expected to meet again in the Irish Champion S. (Ire-G1) at Leopardstown, but this time the elements did scuttle the match. When the race was postponed one day to September 7, and the ground remained yielding, The Duke was withdrawn, enabling O'Brien to give him more time to recharge in advance of his late-season targets. That left a substandard Group 1 affair, with New Approach the only top-level horse in the field. Unlike the Juddmonte, he was allowed to race in second on this occasion, poised just off the pacemaker, and a happier New Approach predictably proved more tractable. His rivals were being pushed along turning for home, but New Approach was full of run as he took command and appeared set for a handy score. The Jim Bolger pupil then reverted to cruise control, and although the longshot TRAFFIC GUARD (More Than Ready) rallied dangerously into contention, New Approach was always doing enough under a confident Kevin Manning to hold him safe by a half-length. Interpreted literally, the Irish Champion result does not flatter the chestnut, who was fully entitled to win this standing on his ear, but I am convinced that he had plenty more in hand. It's also worth noting that Traffic Guard came within a head of beating Phoenix Tower earlier this season, and has a stealthily improving profile. As a long-term booster of New Approach, though, I'm frustrated that he is not being given the opportunity to perform in world-class contests like the Arc and Breeders' Cup. Instead, he's awaiting the October 18 Champion S. (Eng-G1) at Newmarket, where a victory would not do much to enhance his reputation. I can understand the reasoning for not venturing to the Breeders' Cup, since the turf will be too firm for his liking, and the synthetic would be a complete shot in the dark. But his connections' explanation for swerving the Arc is unconvincing -- dare I say reminiscent in tone, if not in substance, to the rationale for skipping the Derby, which he then ran in anyway, to his everlasting glory? Granted, the Arc does not suit every horse, but can a champion who acted so brilliantly around Epsom be denied, out of hand, the chance to do the same at Longchamp? Would there be disgrace in placing in Europe's fall championship? Surely he would do better than last year's Derby winner, Authorized, who flopped badly in the Arc. Unless there is a physical reason for giving New Approach more time, dismissing the Arc is a deplorable decision, and I can only hope that Bolger will execute another last-minute flip-flop, a la Epsom, and enter him after all. While The Duke's participation in the Arc depends on the weather, and New Approach is apparently out of the reckoning, there are no such uncertainties about the unbeaten ZARKAVA (Zamindar), who bolstered her Arc claims by demolishing her hapless opponents in the September 14 Prix Vermeille (Fr-G1). Making her first start at the Arc distance of about 1 1/2 miles, and coming off a three-month summer holiday, the Aga Khan filly was caught napping when the gate opened, but she smoothly recovered and settled at the rear of the field. Zarkava angled to the outside to deliver her blistering charge down the stretch, and she sailed past the entire field to score by two authoritative lengths in a stakes-record 2:26. As she has done all season, Zarkava made it look easy, in the manner of a truly exceptional athlete, and in a scary proposition for her Arc rivals, she stands to improve off this trial run for horseman Alain de Royer-Dupre. My contrarian streak, however, forces me to take a harder look, and not get completely caught up in the visual impact of her performances. Zarkava's form has been upheld magnificently by GOLDIKOVA (Anabaa) at one mile (more on her below), but when it comes to longer distances, her victims have not measured up. In the Vermeille, for instance, the second- and fourth-place finishers had just been dismissed by LUSH LASHES (Galileo [Ire]) in the transferred Yorkshire Oaks (Eng-G1) in Newmarket course-record time for 1 1/2 miles. Lush Lashes is a filly of outstanding versatility, having cut back in trip next time out to take the September 7 Matron S. (Ire-G1) at one mile, but would anyone be doing handsprings over Lush Lashes' prospects in the Arc? No, which is why she's headed to the Prix de l'Opera (Fr-G1) on the same day instead. Obviously, this is a snarky point, in that Lush Lashes has not won her races in anywhere near the condescending manner of Zarkava, who has given off vibes of being something truly special. But, leaving aside atmospherics and looking solely at facts, Zarkava has not even crossed paths with fellow sophomore filly Lush Lashes, let alone older males, and her antepost favoritism for the Arc reflects her charisma more than her literal form. While she may well mete out the same punishment to a much higher grade of opponent in the Arc, sometimes the cold, hard-hearted form book has a way of rearing up to trample dreams underfoot. Let's hope that this worthy descendant of the great Petite Etoile can transcend the pestering doubts of the form book. In any event, Zarkava was the only superstar on show on Longchamp's September 14 Arc prep program. The Prix Niel (Fr-G2), usually a key trial, did not look particularly strong this year. VISION D'ETAT (Chichicastenango), who was making his first start since upsetting the June 1 Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby) (Fr-G1), preserved his unbeaten record by a bare nose from listed winner IDEAL WORLD (Kingmambo). Trainer Eric Libaud has since reported that Vision d'Etat has moved forward considerably, but he would need to improve quite a bit to make his presence felt in the Arc. In the Prix Foy (Fr-G2) for older horses, ZAMBEZI SUN (Dansili [GB]) was life-and-death to subdue Godolphin's SCHIAPARELLI (Monsun), who was returning from an 11-month layoff. If both return for the Arc, a sharper Schiaparelli is liable to turn the tables. Master horseman Andre Fabre chose to prep his Arc hopeful GETAWAY (Monsun) in the August 31 Grand Prix de Deauville (Fr-G2), where the German-bred rebounded from a pair of deflating losses to defeat the globetrotting DOCTOR DINO (Fr) (Muhtathir [GB]) by one length. To be fair, Doctor Dino was conceding four pounds, but it was still good to see Getaway finally start to deliver on his early-season promises. Fabre is not one to tilt at windmills, and the very fact that he has stuck to his Arc plan, through thick and thin, is a potent indicator that Getaway must be respected. At the same time, the Grand Prix de Deauville and Foy results call to mind those who had beaten Getaway, Doctor Dino and Zambezi Sun in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud (Fr-G1) earlier in the summer -- stylish winner YOUMZAIN (Sinndar) and the O'Brien-trained SOLDIER OF FORTUNE (Galileo [Ire]) -- both of whom are bound for the Arc. Youmzain, who just missed in the 2007 Arc, has been kept fresh since his troubled third in the King George to The Duke and Papal Bull. Soldier of Fortune has not raced since his runner-up effort in the Grand Prix, but two starts back, he had gotten the better of Youmzain in the Coronation Cup (Eng-G1), and has ranked as Ballydoyle's major Arc hope all along. Considering O'Brien's insanely good year, that is saying an awful lot about Soldier of Fortune. Unlike The Duke, he revels in rain-soaked ground. The wizard of Ballydoyle has dangled the possibility of SEPTIMUS (Sadler's Wells) being redirected to the Arc, but that smacks of a contingency plan in case Soldier of Fortune doesn't make it and the ground is too bad for The Duke. Septimus, who exuded raw power when pulverizing the September 13 Irish St Leger (Ire-G1) field by 13 lengths, is much more likely to ship for the November 4 Melbourne Cup (Aus-G1), where he is expected to clash with Australian phenom WEEKEND HUSSLER (Hussonet). Certainly headed to the Arc is Japanese champion MEISHO SAMSON (Opera House [GB]). While he cannot hold a candle to his compatriot, the mighty Deep Impact, whose 2006 Arc loss still stings to this day, Meisho Samson was a dual Japanese classic winner at three, hero of both the Spring and Autumn editions of the prestigious Tenno Sho (Jpn-G1) last year, was twice narrowly beaten by the world-class Admire Moon, and just missed in the June 29 Takarazuka Kinen (Jpn-G1) for the second straight year. This is a high-quality, honest, genuine campaigner who may be overlooked in the wagering. Top German three-year-old KAMSIN (Samum) recently entered Arc calculations after taking the 136th Grosser Preis von Baden (Ger-G1) on September 7, but he would need to be supplemented to the Longchamp contest. Successful in the Deutsches Derby (Ger-G1) in July, he crossed the wire in second in the aforementioned Rheinland-Pokal, a half-length ahead of Papal Bull, and was subsequently elevated to first prize via disqualification. Although it's doubtful that we saw the real Papal Bull that day, the form line does technically tie Kamsin in with The Duke. While the Arc figures to lure most, if not all, of the season's outstanding 1 1/2-mile performers, the elite milers will first have a summit of their own in Saturday's Queen Elizabeth II S. (Eng-G1) at Ascot, which should offer plenty of Breeders' Cup implications. HENRYTHENAVIGATOR (Kingmambo) will try to bounce back from his first loss of the season in the September 7 Prix du Moulin de Longchamp (Fr-G1). O'Brien had strongly considered withdrawing "Henry" because of his inability to cope with the rain-softened ground, but wound up letting him take his chance. The proverbial handwriting was on the wall as he came under a ride early in the straight, an unthinkable development on better ground. Unable to deploy his explosive burst, he switched leads and plugged on gamely to finish a creditable fifth, beaten a little more than two lengths by the Breeders' Cup-bound filly Goldikova. She is three-for-three since getting away from Zarkava's ominous shadow, and because she's skipping the QEII, I'll reserve my comments on her until our next issue. One of the fascinating aspects of the QEII is that Henry will meet RAVEN'S PASS (Elusive Quality) for the fourth time this campaign, and the supporters of Raven's Pass will be emboldened by the fact that he has gotten progressively closer each time. A distant fourth in the Two Thousand Guineas (Eng-G1), he rallied to fall three-quarters of a length short in the St James's Palace S. (Eng-G1), and in their last face-off in the July 30 Sussex S. (Eng-G1), he just missed nailing Henry by a head at the wire. I suspect that Henry was not best suited by the tactics that day. In a rare miscue for the militarily precise Ballydoyle, his pacemaker was too slow, resulting in some farcical scenes early, and Henry was forced to move much earlier than ideal. "Raven," in contrast, likely benefited from a slower early gallop, followed by a sprint finish. Indeed, last time out, Raven set a leisurely pace himself en route to a comfortable score in the August 23 Celebration Mile (Eng-G2) at Goodwood. In the QE II, however, a strong pace is guaranteed courtesy of the pacemakers (who will most certainly be fast enough for the job), so I think that Henry will confirm his superiority over Raven, if he gets the expected good ground. Moreover, Raven's trainer, John Gosden, has candidly warned that Raven is not fully cranked for this race, with a view to keeping him fresh for the Breeders' Cup Mile (G1). A bigger danger to Henry in the QEII is French raider TAMAYUZ (Nayef), a stablemate of Goldikova who could give horseman Freddie Head a formidable one-two punch in the Breeders' Cup Mile. As recounted in my last International Diary, Tamayuz readily defeated Raven in the Prix Jean Prat (Fr-G1), and in his only subsequent start, slammed a couple of useful older horses in the August 17 Prix Jacques le Marois (Fr-G1) at Deauville. Both races feature collateral formlines that stack up well against Henry. Of course, he must still prove himself directly versus Henry, but Tamayuz's grand style of dismissing their common foes suggests that Henry must be at his brilliant best to fend off this Gallic threat. Finally, I must mention the concluding classic of the season, the September 13 St Leger (Eng-G1) at Doncaster, where CONDUIT (Dalakhani) stormed to a convincing three-length victory. In the process, the royally bred chestnut handed Sir Michael Stoute his long overdue first victory in the about 1 3/4-mile test. A six-length romper in a heritage handicap on Derby Day at Epsom, he was then a troubled second in that super-deep King Edward VII S. (Eng-G2), which also produced Secretariat S. (G1) conqueror and Breeders' Cup hopeful WINCHESTER (Theatrical [Ire]). Conduit will race no more this year, but he promises to be a terrific four-year-old in 2009. The St Leger may yield a couple of Breeders' Cup contenders. Runner-up UNSUNG HEROINE (High Chaparral [Ire]), who ran a fantastic race in only her third career start, has been mentioned as possible for the inaugural Marathon. FROZEN FIRE (Montjeu [Ire]) was never involved in the St Leger and wound up seventh as the 9-4 favorite, but O'Brien is contemplating a tilt at the Turf (G1) for the Irish Derby (Ire-G1) victor. I think he deserves a pass for his St Leger disappointment, considering that he had run a bad race in similar conditions at Doncaster as a juvenile, and I'll have more to say about him in advance of the Breeders' Cup. Our next installment will review the QEII and the Arc weekend action, highlighting developments with the greatest bearing upon the Breeders' Cup.
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