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PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING SEPTEMBER 27, 2008 Some emerging freshman sire traits for pedigree handicappers by Tim Holland With five months having past since the first representatives of this year's freshman sires started appearing on the racetrack, it is safe to say that this a solid group of new sires. Indeed the four leading freshman sires also occupy Top 10 positions in the overall Juvenile Sire List, headed by Lion Heart, whose runners include Azul Leon, a leading contender for next month's Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1). Tapit and Medaglia d'Oro are respectively represented by leading Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) prospects Stardom Bound and C. S. Silk, and Speightstown, who has been dueling with Tapit for second place on the Freshman Sire List, scored his first stakes winner recently when Lord Shanakill won the Mill Reef S. (Eng-G2) in England. With a huge crop of 175 two-year-olds, it is perhaps not surprising to see LION HEART (Tale of the Cat) leading the Freshman Sire List with a very respectable 31 percent of his runners being winners who, in addition to Azul Leon, include the stakes winners Silent Valor and Lyin' Heart. However, and while many of his runners have indicated through their closing running styles that they will perform well over longer distances, they have not proven the ability to stretch out successfully with just one win and one third-place finish from runners at a mile or more. While this is a small sample, this 10 percent win rate does not compare favorably with the 24 percent win rate of runners at seven furlongs or less. If runners by Lion Heart do turn out to favor shorter distances, it may not be a surprise as this would mirror the trait of his sire, Tale of the Cat, whose offspring own an average winning distance of 6.8 furlongs. Another similarity between the two is that their runners perform well on dirt and artificial surfaces and, indeed, Lion Heart's runners on dirt are winning at a rate of 22 percent and on synthetic surfaces at 28 percent. However, on turf, over which surface Tale of the Cat earns a lowly "C" rating in the TSN Sire Stat Book, Lion Heart's runners are winless in more than 20 tries both here and in Europe, with just two managing third-place finishes. Of the first 21 debutants in North America by TAPIT (Pulpit), remarkably just one was a winner. However, 13 more finished second and third, and it is clear that the learning experience of their first start is beneficial since five of 21 (24 percent) to return scored in their second outing. This may be an angle to keep an eye on as it produced the lucrative $18.40 return at Belmont from Pyro's three-quarter brother War Echo, as well as the 10.90-1 winner Liz's Broom at Del Mar. Passing along a certain amount of stamina inherited from his sire and damsire, Unbridled, distance should not be a problem for Tapit's runners and indeed two of his six starters making their first start at a route were winners, including War Echo. Runners by Pulpit and his sire, A.P. Indy, perform well on any surface and this seems to be the case for Tapit, who has been represented by winners on turf and dirt as well as by Stardom Bound, who has proven her affinity for artificial surfaces. SPEIGHTSTOWN (Gone West) was the U.S. champion sprinter of 2004 and while his runners with success on the main track include Munnings, who was third in the Hopeful S. (G1), and Reynaldothewizard, who occupied the same position in the Saratoga Special S. (G2), Lord Shanakill's grass success indicates that his offspring may not be limited to success on dirt. Lord Shanakill receives grass influence through being out of a mare by Theatrical (Ire), but it is also relevant that Speightstown is by Gone West, who has sired leading turf runners such as Zafonic, Da Hoss and Johar, as well as the successful turf sire Mr. Greeley. From just three starters on the grass in America, Speightstown has already been represented by Mullins Beach, who was an easy winner of her maiden at Woodbine. Having been at his most effective as an older horse -- perhaps his lifetime best performance was finishing second to Pleasantly Perfect in the Dubai World Cup (UAE-G1) -- it is understandable to see MEDAGLIA D'ORO's (El Prado [Ire]) runners proving more of a force as time goes on. While nine of his winners have come sprinting it is over routes that they will likely be most effective, and from 10 runners over a mile or more, four have returned winners. Similar to his sire El Prado's (Ire) runners that excel on all surfaces, Medaglia d'Oro's offspring have already been successful on the turf and dirt as well as C. S. Silk's Arlington-Washington Lassie S. (G3) on the Polytrack. By percentage of winners to runners STROLL (Pulpit) is the clear leader of any of the 2008 freshman sires, with an eye-popping total of 73 percent. As a top-class turf runner by Pulpit whose victories included the nine-furlong Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (G1) at Churchill Downs, one might not have expected Stroll to be a sire of precocious two-year-olds. However, pressing speed was his forte and his dam, who was placed in the six-furlong Princess Margaret S. (Eng-G3) at Ascot, is by the English sprinter Prince Sabo. While Stroll's runners are winless thus far on the turf, they have proven capable on synthetic surfaces, but a strong statistic is that his runners are seven wins from 10 tries sprinting on conventional dirt. One of the least likely of this year's sires with their first runners to make an impact in the early part of the year is the stoutly bred PLEASANTLY PERFECT (Pleasant Colony). The Richard Mandella trainee did not break his maiden until his four-year-old year and won the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) as a five-year-old before taking the Dubai World Cup the following year. However, from 10 starters, Pleasantly Perfect has already made a good impression chiefly through Quite the Lady, who was second at odds of 27.30-1 in the Arlington-Washington Lassie. This was Quite the Lady's first attempt at a mile or further -- a situation that should be taken note of since it has produced two wins for this sire, including Into My Soul, who returned a mouth-watering $90.00 when stretched out on the grass at Belmont. As a Breeders' Cup Turf (G1) winner, albeit in a dead-heat, and being by Gone West out of the champion turf mare Windsharp (Lear Fan), it should be no surprise that JOHAR is the sire of four winners from 15 starts on the grass. It is slightly surprising, however, that several of his runners on the surface have been ignored at the windows such as Har D Boy at Arlington Park and Majestic Feline at Ellis, who both won in their second career starts having made so-so debuts on the main track. This pair returned $37.40 and $17.00 respectively, while Kentucky Downs debutant My Boy Jo was allowed to win at 10.20-1. Meanwhile another runner making his first career start on the turf was Albin, who may have finished much closer than third at more than 35-1 had he not been carried wide on the first turn. OMEGA CODE (Elusive Quality) was fast and precocious, breaking his maiden in wire-to-wire fashion over four furlongs at Fairplex as a juvenile and when winning the San Miguel S.(G3) the following spring, and with 12 winners already to his name, he appears to be passing these qualities to his runners. Of these winners, five won at first asking for a win rate of 19 percent and a huge ROI, thanks to the 25.60-1 win of Max Speed at Calder. TOCCET (Awesome Again) broke his maiden in his second start as a two-year-old in August and won five more races before the end of the year including the Champagne S. (G1) and the Hollywood Futurity (G1). For the next two years, he was campaigned curiously over distances varying between seven furlongs on the dirt to 1 1/2 miles on the turf with little success. From his race record it is hard to judge where the strength of Toccet's offspring may lie, but based on pedigree one might expect them to benefit from time and added distance, which is beginning to appear to be the case. Indeed, of Toccet's 27 debutants, just two (7 percent) were winners and of the 20 that attempted to break their maidens second time out, just one succeeded. However, eight of Toccet's runners subsequently became winners in their third try. From very few runners to try routing, he has one winner and a stakes-placed finish. Handicappers looking for value are well advised to look closely at the offspring of DURING (Cherokee Run). He has sired seven winners so far and the average mutuel has been an incredible $33.60. This figure is not distorted by one monster payoff, as five of the winners paid in excess of $25. A winner of six races including the 2003 Swaps S. (G2), During has been represented by 22 starters of which four (18 percent) have won at first asking. ALKE (Grand Slam) and ACTION THIS DAY (Kris S.) are currently in 19th and 20th positions in the Freshman Sire List with five and seven winners, respectively. While the pair was very different on the racetrack -- the former was a sprinter with plenty of speed while the latter had no early foot but displayed a big closing kick when he won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) -- the pair both own some turf pedigree. Indeed, Action this Day is a grandson of a leading turf influence, Roberto, and is out of a mare by 1987 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1) winner, Trempolino, which may help explain why three of the sire's wins have come on the grass. These include Night Action's $16.40 Cradle S. score at River Downs. Meanwhile, Alke is by Grand Slam who, while he is not known as a top grass sire, is by Gone West and out of an El Gran Senor mare, both turf influences. Furthermore Alke is out of a mare by Crow (Fr), who was a champion turf runner who finished second in the 1976 edition of the Arc. To-date three juveniles by Alke have raced on the turf, with Never Lie winning at Arlington at 10.30-1 and Myroslaw finishing second in his debut at Kentucky Downs, hinting that turf runners by this sire, as with Action This Day, are worth extra consideration.
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