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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS NOVEMBER 1, 2008 by Dick Powell Luckily for me this is a handicapping column so I'll leave the issues of divisional championships and Horse of the Year to others. Last weekend's Breeders' Cup will make for much discussion in the coming months and if it had any handicapping relevance I might take a side. But, this is about handicapping and my analysis of the 14 Breeders' Cup races are seen through that prism. I write a lot about international racing and it's not always apparent why. What does a horse winning a race in France have to do with handicapping American races? You got to see why this past weekend. How do you handicap Breeders' Cup races without knowing who these foreign horses are? They sometimes have familiar connections but not much else. No running lines with points of call, no Speed figures that we are used to and they often run clockwise. But by following major international races, you get a feel for the strength of races and how horses subsequently ran. Most of the foreign horses stay within a narrow range of race distances so horses that specialize in running the mile, for instance, will tend to meet each other during the season. Turf conditions vary wildly so you have to pay close attention to what the ground was when horses did face each other. The best example was the Breeders' Cup Mile (G1) on Saturday when GOLDIKOVA (Ire) (Anabaa) exploded in the lane to win going away while beating last year's winner, Kip Deville (Kipling). It was one of the best performances of championship weekend and came as no surprise as she was sent off as the favorite at 9-5. Earlier this year, Goldikova faced Zarkava in the French One Thousand Guineas (Fr-G1) and it was no contest as Zarkava won by two easy lengths. In her next start in the French Oaks at Chantilly, Zarkava dominated so much that rider Christophe Soumillon was blowing kisses to the crowd as they hit the wire. In third that day was Goldikova. The only way at that point in June that you could have predicted that Goldikova would finish her season with a win in the Breeders' Cup Mile would be to understand how Zarkava was in a league of her own which she obviously was. If you knew how strong Zarkava was, you could excuse Goldikova for losing twice to her as well as Henrythenavigator losing to Goldikova in the Prix du Moulin de Longchamp (Fr-G1) in his last start. It was a strong field that Henry was beaten in. So after you saw Goldikova dominate the Mile, you might have liked Henry a little bit more in the Classic (G1). And if you liked Henry a little bit more in the Classic, you could then like RAVEN'S PASS (Elusive Quality) a little bit more in it since he beat Henry the last time they faced each other in the Queen Elizabeth II S. (Eng-G1) at Ascot. My problem with Breeders' Cup weekend’s results was that I predicted that it would be a big weekend for the Europeans, but did not always have the right Europeans. Most of this was because I thought the Aidan O'Brien armada was ready to take our bounty as he sailed past Bobby Frankel for the record for most Grade/Group 1 stakes wins in a season. In the Filly and Mare Turf (G1), I thought Halfway to Heaven (Ire) (Pivotal) was the class of the race, but she stalked a slow pace while racing uncovered in the two path and was outkicked badly in the stretch. Despite a very slow pace in the 10-furlong event, it was all closers and FOREVER TOGETHER (Belong to Me) rallied clear on the outside to win by less than a length over 48-1 longshot Sealy Hill (Point Given). This was O'Brien's best chance to pick up a grade 1 win on Friday and not only did Halfway to Heaven run poorly, but Johnny Murtagh gave her a curious ride by not getting in behind horses. One thing I noticed last year when Peeping Fawn was winning four straight Group 1 stakes was O'Brien's strategy of "striking while the iron was hot." She had a long year and was racing every three or four weeks, but O'Brien's strategy was to keep racing her as long as she was fit and sound. Some thought that he would back off and maybe point her to the Arc (Fr-G1) or Breeders' Cup, but there were group 1 stakes sitting there for her and she won four of them in a row. That was the end of her season and career as the wear and tear kept her from training on. So now I am thinking at this point that maybe the O'Brien horses, especially the older ones, not the juveniles, might be "over the top" as they say in Europe. Heart Shaped (Storm Cat) just missed winning the Juvenile Filly Turf two races earlier when her late rally failed to catch MARAM (Sahm) by a nose, giving Chad Brown a winner in his first Breeders' Cup start. Considering that he won with his first two Saratoga starters this year, why should anyone be surprised. The feature on Friday was the Ladies Classic (G1) and ZENYATTA (Street Cry) was at her best while winning her ninth straight race in as many starts. Coming off a dominating win in the Lady's Secret (G1) last out here, trainer John Shirreffs drilled her in between starts and the results were startling. She was in last place early as is her custom and then began to close in with three furlongs to go. Ramon Dominguez had Cocoa Beach (Chi) (Doneraile Court) ahead of her at this point but decided to stay inside. While Cocoa Beach was waiting for room, Zenyatta was flying on the outside and by the time Cocoa Beach had a clear path the race was over. Zenyatta covered the nine furlongs in 1:46.85 with Cocoa Beach 1 1/2 lengths behind. Saturday did not start out well for Frankie Dettori as he was beaten in the Marathon aboard favorite Sixties Icon (GB) (Galileo [Ire]) by MUHANNAK (Ire) (Chester House) and then was caught in the Turf Sprint by DESERT CODE (E Dubai) aboard Diabolical (Artax). In the Dirt Mile, Garrett Gomez, who won one race on Friday with VENTURA (Chester House), rallied ALBERTUS MAXIMUS (Albert the Great) from behind to storm down the middle of the track to win going away at 6-1. Next up was the Mile and Goldikova showed tactical speed, an ability to relax while waiting for room to run and a sudden burst of acceleration when her rider Olivier Peslier pressed the button. Kip Deville had a clear path to the finish line through the stretch but could not match strides while being a decisive second. Whatsthescript (Ire) (Royal Applause) was a good third from post 11 for Gomez. In the Juvenile (G1), Square Eddie (Smart Strike) and MIDSHIPMAN (Unbridled's Song) went to the front in a comfortable first half in :47.08. They turned it up around the far turn with a third quarter in 23.53, but instead of being swallowed up by wide closers they stayed on to the finish with Midshipman getting the win by 1 1/4 lengths in the good time of 1:40.94. Formerly owned by Stonerside Stable and now owned by Darley Stable, which recently purchased all the Stonerside assets, it will be interesting to see what his new owners do with him. Does he stay with Bob Baffert, winter in Dubai as part of Godolphin, or make the Kentucky Derby (G1) his first start on dirt? In the Juvenile Turf, it looked like O'Brien might finally get a win (although not a graded one) when Johnny Murtagh got Westphalia (Ire) (Danehill Dancer) through a hole in the deep stretch and was running down the leaders. But Frankie Dettori had DONATIVUM (GB) (Cadeaux Genereux) flying and was able to get by him to win by a half-length. Two things about the winner: first, he won his last start over Crowded House (Rainbow Quest), who came back Saturday morning to win the Racing Post Trophy (Eng-G1) and is now one of the favorites for next year's classics; and, two, Donativum is a gelding and is ineligible for those classics. So we might see him here in America since he will miss the Guineas (Eng-G1) and Derby (Eng-G1). In the Sprint (G1), Bob Baffert brought last year's winner, MIDNIGHT LUTE (Real Quiet), back to the races off only one race this year to win again. The massive five-year-old trained bullets the past two months as Baffert was either going to win the race or not even start. He held up to the training, rallied from far back and inhaled the field to win going away in the insane time of 1:07.08, giving Gomez his third winner of the day and fourth of the weekend. The Turf (G1) started out according to plan as Red Rock Canyon (Ire) (Rock of Gibraltar [Ire]) went to the front to ensure a fast pace for his stablemate Soldier of Fortune (Ire) (Galileo [Ire]). For some reason, Murtagh must have thought he was at Palm Beach Kennel Club and chased his own rabbit. Gomez moved Out of Control (Brz) (Vettori) up to his outside and now Soldier of Fortune was chasing his own rabbit while being pressed on the outside. When the rabbit ran out of gas with a half-mile to go, Murtagh forced the issue even more while covering the mile in 1:33.86. Clearly the Turf was setting up for a closer and it looked like it would be Eagle Mountain (GB) (Rock of Gibraltar [Ire]), who was enjoying a perfect trip with Kevin Shea. He had a long hold on him and had not asked him to run even with a quarter mile to go. Shea cruised to the lead in the stretch and looked like he would go on and win, but here on the outside was Ryan Moore and CONDUIT (Ire) (Dalakhani). It looked like at this point Shea said two words with the first one being, "Oh!" Conduit's momentum was too much and Eagle Mountain could not re-rally and had to settle for second. Dancing Forever (Rahy) rallied nicely for third winning a photo over Soldier of Fortune, who continued on gamely to the wire. Conduit did everything right while Eagle Mountain was beaten because his rider didn't move quick enough while Soldier of Fortune's moved too quick. I have been critical of the path that 2007 Horse of the Year Curlin (Smart Strike) took this year. They wanted to run in the Arc and instead of racing at Arlington or Woodbine, they chose the Man o'War (G1), which was run on a rock-hard turf course. Curlin finished second and they decided he was not a turf horse. Maybe he's not, but if he won by 10 lengths that day it wouldn't have proved much since he would never compete on a turf course that hard again. It was back to the main track for Curlin and he made his next start at Saratoga in the Woodward S. (G1), which he won professionally. At this point it was obvious that he would go to the Breeders' Cup and defend his title in the Classic, but instead of prepping in the Goodwood (G1) and getting a race over the Pro-Ride track at Santa Anita, he showed up in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) and won over a sealed, sloppy track. With only a five-furlong breeze to his credit, Curlin went into this year's Classic with many question marks. Yes, he looked like he took to Pro-Ride in that workout, but did he do enough in the four weeks leading up to the Classic? Compare his work regimen with Zenyatta's and you'll see that Shirreffs was taking no chances with her and was making sure that he ran a fit horse in her final start of the season. That said, while I thought he handled the Pro-Ride fine, it did get him beat. The reason being is that the presence of Pro-Ride enabled some top-class international shippers to make their main track debut. Without Pro-Ride, I doubt if any of them, with the exception of Casino Drive (Mineshaft), would have even contested the Classic. If Curlin would have gone to the Goodwood and won decisively, how many of these shippers would have shown up? Considering all the doubts that were emanating from the Curlin camp, it's not surprising that 10 rivals entered the gate at 6:52 p.m. (ET). Even though I thought Curlin was vulnerable and even though I liked the Europeans to have a big day, my top choice for the Classic was Go Between (Point Given). All three of his 10-furlong races on synthetic tracks were excellent and he had Gomez in the saddle. Unfortunately, a not-so-funny thing happened on the way to the starting gate for Go Between -- he was sweating like Patrick Ewing on the free throw line. It was not a pretty sight him looking so washed out. When the gate opened, Casino Drive went to the front and was chased by Fairbanks (Giant's Causeway) and Duke of Marmalade (Ire) (Danehill). They covered the first half in a sensible :47.60, and Gomez had Go Between saving ground on the rail behind the leaders. Robby Albarado had Curlin back in eighth early and as the field went around the far turn the pack tightened up and he was forced to go very wide as he asked him for run. Like many of the races run on Pro-Ride over the weekend, the wide, sweeping move was working and Curlin went from eighth to first in about a sixteenth of a mile. The strapping chestnut had the lead on the outside turning for home but just as he made the lead the challenges were coming. Drafting behind Curlin was Frankie Dettori aboard Raven's Pass, and when he went outside of Curlin the response was dramatic. Curlin looked like a sure winner at the top of the stretch and now was about to be passed by Raven's Pass nearing the eighth pole. Henrythenavigator was also in the midst of a strong drive and the unthinkable was about to happen -- Curlin was going down and going down hard. Tiago's (Pleasant Tap) late rally from last place saw him pass Curlin in the final strides, and last year's winner finished off the board. Raven's Pass, another horse that Stonerside sold who now races in the colors of Her Royal Highness Princess Haya of Jordan and Darley Stable, cruised to a 1 3/4-length victory over Henry and capped a huge day for Darley that not only saw them win three races -- two in partnership with Princess Haya -- but also saw three other winners from horses sired by their stallions. The final time of the Classic was 1:59.27 and Raven's Pass earned a BRIS Speed rating of 107. Henry and Duke have been retired, but Raven's Pass could stay in training and show up in the Dubai World Cup (UAE-G1). And with the Breeders' Cup back at Santa Anita next year, he could be back to defend his title. As you read this, I will be on a plane to Australia for this year's Melbourne Cup (Aus-G1). It has always been my dream to see the Cup in person and experience what it is like to feel the excitement of the "Race that stops a nation." It will take me a day and a half to get there and will make a big dent in my gambling winnings, but I can't wait to go. No one is more blessed than me to have the ability to go to the Dubai World Cup, Arc de Triomphe and Melbourne Cup in one year. I ain't getting any younger and if I don't go now, who knows if I ever would. I'll report back on the experience next week, but it looks like a great renewal of the Cup with many international stars trying to win one of the world's great races.
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