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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS NOVEMBER 14, 2008 by Dick Powell Fair Grounds Race Course will open its doors on Gentilly Blvd. in New Orleans this weekend for the 137th time and this year's meet should be as good as it gets. Record purses have attracted many nationally known stables. Besides an aesthetically pleasing racing product, there should be ample pari-mutuel opportunity for those that make the commitment to follow racing there. After the first three-day weekend of racing, there will be mostly four-day race weeks (Thursday-Sunday), with the exception of the two-month period between December 22 and February 23 when Mondays will be added. What's great about the Fair Grounds race schedule is the ample down time that can be put to good use. A four-day race week enables handicappers to study replays and charts more than normal. The fact that the Fair Grounds race office, now under the able leadership of Jason Boulet, draws their races early also provides plenty of lead time for advance handicapping. In my opinion, Fair Grounds has the best main track in America. It is safe and fair, drains remarkably well despite being below sea level and enables horses that stable there to stay sound. Fair Grounds has one of the longest homestretches in the country, but many mistakenly believe it is a closers track. Below are the BRIS Track Bias Stats from last year's meet for the common one-turn races on the main track.
As you can see, speed does extremely well going one turn at the Fair Grounds. Two out of three winners of one-turn races show early speed as their running profile and more than one of three win wire to wire. When they turn for home, the 2nd call above, you better be within two lengths of the leader. Yes, there is a long homestretch, but most of the sprint races are decided either going into the turn or on the turn itself. Don't be afraid to go with stone cold, need-the-lead types in sprints; they have a habit of hanging on. In two-turn races on the main track, speed is less dominant and there is no real bias as the numbers below indicate. Even though there is no perceived advantage of running styles, inside posts have the edge going two turns on the main track.
The Stall-Wilson turf course will be put to good use during the meet. With three dark days for much of the meet, the race office can schedule a few extra turf races each week without damaging it too much. The preferred running style for two-turn races on the turf course, regardless of its condition or the pace of the race, is to come from off the pace. It is a sand-based turf course that is not kind to speed. As you can see below, speed does okay in turf sprints, but winners can rally from farther back than they can on the main track at the same distance. If I am going to go with a speed horse in a two-turn turf race, it better be alone on the lead.
The Louisiana HBPA and the track have settled their contracts so that all the national account wagering platforms can have the Fair Grounds signal. Big purses, large fields and good sized betting pools combine to make it my favorite winter simulcast track. With much of the wise guy money being bet in South Florida during the winter, Fair Grounds has its own niche in the betting market. It is not an easy circuit to drop into so I recommend that you follow it regularly. Louisiana state law requires three state-bred races a day and with slot-fueled purses at all four Thoroughbred tracks in the state, the gap between open company and state-bred races has narrowed considerably. The BRIS sire and dam stats are invaluable with pedigrees that might be obscure to some of you. When Churchill closes the Saturday after Thanksgiving, the riding colony will be as strong as ever. Robby Albarado and Julien Leparoux will be spending the winter in New Orleans as well as Shaun Bridgmohan, Jamie Theriot, Corey Lanerie, Miguel Mena, Pat Valenzuela, Ramsey Zimmerman and James Graham. An underrated rider on the turf is E.J. Perrodin. Don't say I didn't warn you. In the trainer division, Steve Asmussen is back to defend his title against Cody Autrey, Tom Amoss, Al Stall Jr., Wallace Dollase, Steve Margolis, Doug O'Neill, Mark Casse, Pat Mouton, Steve Klesaris, Bill Mott, Neil Howard, Dallas Stewart, Mike Stidham and Bret Calhoun. Asmussen can cycle horses in from Texas to replenish his stable, and he won an amazing 86 races last year, 37 more than Autrey. He'll be a force again with Bridgmohan riding most of them.
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