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PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING JANUARY 10, 2009 Three-Year-Old prospects for the turf in 2009 by Tim Holland The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf has become America's premier grass event for juveniles but as was the case in the 2007 edition, from which Gio Ponti was the only runner to win a graded, or group race in 2008, October's race may not prove to be much of a barometer in regards to the American three-year-old turf races. Indeed, Juvenile Turf winner Donativum (GB) (Cadeaux Genereux) is scheduled to reappear over Kempton Park's Polytrack on his way to an attempt at the Kentucky Derby (G1) (although it must be said that if he does not take to the dirt and with group races not option for a gelding in Europe, an American turf campaign would surely be a logical option) and the runner-up, the Aidan O'Brien-trained Westphalia (Ire) (Danehill Dancer), is expected to remain in Europe. Meanwhile, and although Coronet of a Baron (Pure Prize) ran a fine race to be third after leading in midstretch, the proximity of the next four finishers, City Style (City Zip), Relatively Ready (More Than Ready), Vaquero (Orientate) and Orthodox (Pulpit) ), none of whom appear top class, is worrisome. Coronet of a Baron is by Pure Prize whose runners, such as Pure Clan, have performed well on the grass. However, the chestnut's damside suggests that he would be better on dirt and a switch to that surface, or back to the synthetic over which he was a narrowly beaten by probable two-year-old champion Midshipman (Unbridled's Song) in the Del Mar Futurity (G1), seems likely. A disappointment in the Juvenile Turf was Bittel Road (Stormy Atlantic), who was exiting an impressive Bourbon S. (G3) win at Keeneland. He wound up ninth as the second favorite in the Juvenile Turf although he did have had a slight excuse after traveling wide from an outside post. Flashmans Papers (GB) (Exceed And Excel) has to be considered among the leading colts on the grass after his game win in the Eddie Logan S. at Santa Anita. Others three-year-old prospects include Proceed Bee (Bernstein), who upset the Grand Canyon S. field at Churchill Downs; Pilgrim S. (G3) winner Elusive Bluff (Elusive Quality); and turf stakes winners Successful Mission (Successful Appeal) and Tamborim (Belong to Me) from the Bill Mott stable. Overall, however, this division appears shallow. I'll list a half-dozen lightly raced three-year-olds with grass potential below: RESCUE SQUAD (Dynaformer), who is presently in training at Gulfstream Park for Shug McGaughey, caught the eye in his only start when he overcame all kinds of trouble to break his maiden at Belmont in October. After breaking from an inside post, he was forced to wait behind a wall of horses turning for home. At top of the stretch, he found room but was then steadied when carried out by his rival on the inside, but the dark bay colt still ran on to win by a head without really being asked. In addition to being by the outstanding turf sire Dynaformer, Rescue Squad is out of the graded-placed Seeking the Gold mare Search Party, who is also the dam of four-time Grade 3 turf winner Criminologist (Maria's Mon). This Dynaformer/Seeking the Gold nick has proved successful before, notably producing $2.1 million earner Riskaverse, whose victories included two tallies in the Flower Bowl Invitational S. (G1). Rescue Squad earned a good but not flashy BRIS Speed figure of 87, but this performance became better in retrospect when three of the top five finishers behind him won their next start, with a second and a third from the other two runners. Although he has yet to race on turf, BLAME (Arch) showed the ability to rate and a quick turn of foot that is important with grass runners when breaking his maiden over seven furlongs on Keeneland's Polytrack. Blame was making his second start after finishing a decent third at Turfway, 2 1/2 lengths behind subsequent Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) winner Beethoven (Sky Mesa). A son of Arch, who has produced turf champions Arravale (Canada), Les Arcs (England) and Overarching (South Africa), Blame is out of Liable, who is a multiple stakes-placed daughter of Seeking the Gold and the dam of one stakes winner. In turn, Liable is out of Bound, who is by turf influence Nijinsky II and the dam of last year's Arlington Million (G1) runner-up Archipenko (Kingmambo). This is the family of influential turf sires Sadler's Wells and Nureyev. Blame is training at Fair Grounds with Al Stall Jr. FLYING WARRIOR (Fusaichi Pegasus) chased Blame home at Keeneland and although he is winless now in four starts, the colt should be given a look when he starts on turf. While Fusaichi Pegasus is chiefly known as a dirt-type horse, winning the Kentucky Derby (G1) and siring the likes of Roman Ruler and Bandini, he has also thrown some top grass runners such as Haradasun, a champion in Australia and Group 1 winner at Ascot last year in England. Flying Warrior also has plenty of turf influence on his dam side. He's out of Hishi Amazon, a Japanese champion by Theatrical (Ire) who is herself a daughter of Irish champion Katies (Ire). This is the female family of 2007 Japanese Horse of the Year Admire Moon (End Sweep). Flying Warrior is being conditioned at Payson Park by Bill Mott, and turf will likely be in his future. After a promising debut over 6 1/2 furlongs on the dirt at Belmont when he closed strongly while very wide, KEEP THINKING (A.P. Indy) was a touch disappointing when fourth as the favorite over the same distance on the Cushion Track at Hollywood Park. However, being by A.P. Indy, one might assume that sprinting is not his game and a look at his pedigree suggests that he may well be best suited to the turf. Indeed, Keep Thinking is the first foal out of Denebola (Storm Cat), who was champion two-year-old filly in France and second in the Prix De La Foret (Fr-G1) at three. Denebola is out of Coup De Genie (Mr. Prospector), who likewise was champion two-year-old filly in France and is the dam of four stakes winners, including Glia, who like Keep Thinking is by A.P. Indy and won the Pebbles H. and finished second in the Mrs. Revere S. (G2) on grass. Coup De Genie is also the grand-dam of Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1) winner Bago (Fr) (Nashwan), and this is also the family of French Group 1 winners and successful sires Machiavellian and Exit to Nowhere. With such strong turf influence, it might not be long before trainer Eoin Harty enters Keep Thinking on the grass. Judging by his series of good recent works, the Mike Machowsky-trained MAJORMOTIONPICTURE (Action This Day), who has not raced since breaking his maiden at Del Mar in the summer, looks close to returning to the races. Chances are that he will be given another race on a synthetic surfaces as his connections target Kentucky Derby prep races. However, his bloodlines suggest that his forte may be on the grass. Action This Day made just one unsuccessful start on the turf, but being a grandson of major turf winners Roberto and Trempolino and out of a mare that was Grade 2-placed on the lawn, he was certainly bred for it. It appears he may pass this on with his one stakes winner from his first crop coming in the Miller Life Cradle S. over the turf at River Downs. Majormotionpicture is out of a mare by Rahy, who is the sire of eight Grade/Group 1 winners on the turf and is the broodmare sire of the likes of Giant's Causeway and After Market. Additionally, the chestnut colt's second dam is by Roberto, which makes him closely inbred 3 x 3 to the Epsom Derby (Eng-G1) winner. Aldebaran, who is by Mr. Prospector, does not immediately strike one as a turf sire, having been named champion sprinter on the dirt. However, it should be noted that early in his career he was placed in the Jersey S. (Eng-G2) in England and finished third in the Hollywood Derby (G1) on the grass. In addition, he is out of Chimes of Freedom (Private Account), who was a champion three-year-old filly in England and is the dam of Grade one turf winner Good Journey. Aldebaran is the sire of TAQARUB, an unbeaten two-time winner at Aqueduct trained by Kiaran McLaughlin. A Shadwell purchase for $300,000, Taqarub receives a large amount of turf influence from his dam, Wings of Grace (Key to the Mint), who won the Boiling Springs H. (G3) on grass and is also the dam of champion turf mare and Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1) winner Soaring Softly (Kris S.), and Yellow Ribbon S. (G1) heroine Plenty of Grace (Roberto).
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