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PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING FEBRUARY 21, 2009 Debut sires for 2009 by Tim Holland Each February for the last three years, eight stallions that were rated "A" or better in the TSN Sire Stats book have been selected here as ones whose debutants could be potential overlays. In 2006, 247 runners by the eight sires made debuts from after the publication of the article through mid-February of the following year, with 41 winners at a strike rate of 17 percent and a flat-bet on each one returned a 10 percent profit. The following year there were 282 debutants of the selected stallions with 40 winners (14 percent) and a narrow profit of 4 percent. The success continued last year with 41 wins from 294 first time starters (14 percent) with a profit of 12 percent. Two of this year's eight stallions will be selected for the fourth straight year, and the first is MUTAKDDIM, whose debutants win over all surfaces and distances and continue to return surprisingly high mutuels. A son of Seeking the Gold, Mutakddim was a Group 2-placed stakes winner in England from the family of successful sires Not For Love, Polish Numbers and Private Account. Although he is the sire of more than 70 stakes winners, Mutakddim's lone North American Grade 1 winner remains Test S. winner Lady Tak, and consequently the sire remains somewhat uncommercial with many of his offspring going to competent, but not necessarily high-profile connections. This is possibly the key to finding value when wagering on this sire's first-time starters. Trainers that have won with debutants of Mutakddim in the past two years that have returned more than $30 include Rick Hiles, Herbert Jones, Scott Sowle, William Bradley, Bruce Levine, James Gulick and most recently Josie Carroll who saddled Meli in her $48 victory debuting over a mile on the turf at Gulfstream last weekend. WEST ACRE maintained his status as an "A+" rated debut sire with an impressive eight winners from 30 (27 percent) first-time starters in the past 12 months. An unraced son of Forty Niner from the family of successful sires Pulpit, Tale of the Cat and Johannesburg, West Acre stands in Florida and is responsible for nine stakes winners including Ivanavinalot whose principle success came in the Bonnie Miss S. (G2). The sire's longest price debuting winners in the past 12 months were the Edward Allard-trained Shine For Steve, who returned $46.60 at Philadelphia Park in August, and Rev It Up Rhonda, who won at more than 15-1 at Calder in November when saddled by Kathleen O'Connell. A new addition to this list last year was DOME who did not disappoint by having six winning debutants from 22 starters (27 percent) while raising his ranking from "A" to "A+" in the process. Dome, who is by Storm Cat, is an unraced half-brother to the decent young sire Dixie Union from the family of Timber Country, Bianconi and Dubai Millennium and stands in New Mexico, on which circuit his runners should be watched for. Of his six first-time winners last year, two were at Sunland Park and four at Ruidoso Downs, including Angel Mia, who returned $27.60. Dome has 14 unraced three-year-olds and 27 two-year-olds to represent him in 2009. HE'S TOPS, a son of Seattle Slew, is closely related to Dome and was also a new addition last year. Based in Washington, he was also successful with his debutants last year, with six out of 33 (18 percent) winning. Among these were He's Invincible and He's Jokin, who scored at Golden Gate and Emerald Downs respectively, both returning more than $20. He's Top's best runner to date is No Giveaway, who won the Longacres Mile (G3). The sire, who placed without winning in all four of his starts, has 31 juveniles to look forward to this year. After being ranked a lowly "C" debut sire in the 2008 edition, the Kentucky-based stallion MACHO UNO is elevated to "A" status this year through having 11 winners from 48 first timers. A half-brother to the immensely successful Awesome Again, Macho Uno's greatest triumph came in the 2000 Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) when he defeated the likes of Point Given and Street Cry (Ire). From just two crops to race, he has produced five graded stakes winners including Wicked Style, Macho Again and Harlem Rocker. While seven of his debut winners during the past year were three-year-olds, Macho Uno had several that were precocious to win first time out at two, including March Twelth who won at Calder returning $28, and Gadda Da Vida, who broke his maiden at first asking at Belmont in July at more than 15-1. RED BULLET, like Macho Uno, was raced by Frank Stronach and trained by Joe Orseno but stands at Stronach's stallion division in Florida. Unraced at two, Red Bullet, who is a son of Unbridled out of a Cozzene mare, won the Gotham S. (G3) and was second to Fusaichi Pegasus in the Wood Memorial S. (G2) before turning the tables on that rival in the Preakness S. (G1), perhaps reaping the benefits of sitting out the Kentucky Derby (G1). With his oldest foals now five-year-olds, the overall stallion career of Red Bullet has been a little disappointing so far, with his best runner being Fatal Bullet who was second in last year's Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1). However, his first-time starters bear watching -- seven of 29 (24 percent) returned winners during the past 12 months, including Knight Shot ($27.40) at Hawthorne and Quick Shooter, who was nearly 14-1 when he won at Presque Isle Downs last May. Also standing in Florida is PEACE RULES. By the very fast Jules, Peace Rules won three Grade 1 events and finished third in the Kentucky Derby (G1) while earning in excess of $3 million. The first crop of Peace Rules were juveniles last year and included the Cinderella S. winner Trifecta King. Of his 58 debutants to date, a solid 10 (17 percent) were winners including ones at Retama, Santa Anita, Finger Lakes and two at Charles Town that paid $22 or more. In his four lifetime starts, CACTUS RIDGE was never headed, concluding his career on the track with a three-length win in the Arlington-Washington Futurity (G3), and the son of Hennessy would have been a strong contender for that year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile if not derailed by injury. With his third crop about to race it's clear that the Kentucky based sire has passed along his precocity with 13 (20 percent) of his 64 first timers winning in the past year. These include the wire-to-wire scorers Seeking Ms Shelley who returned $78.40 at Fair Grounds in November and Western Drama who won at Prairie Meadows last May at 21/1. These eight and other "A" rated debut stallions can be found in the 2009 TSN Sire Stats. MUTAKDDIM
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