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PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING

MARCH 14, 2009

Pro-Ride to Dirt

by Tim Holland

Much has been written about horses switching from dirt or turf to synthetic surfaces, but not much has been discussed about runners trying the dirt for the first time after racing exclusively on synthetic surfaces. Prior to last October, all synthetic tracks were perhaps regarded as an intermediate between dirt and turf. However, this may have changed slightly with Santa Anita's introduction of their Pro-Ride surface last fall, which appears to favor turf-type horses more than those suited to dirt.

Going into last year's Kentucky Derby (G1), one question faced by handicappers was whether Colonel John (Tiznow), who won the Santa Anita Derby (G1) over the old Cushion Track and had made all six of his starts on synthetic tracks in California, would handle the dirt at Churchill Downs. Colonel John was well supported at 4.70-1, but he did not get the best of runs and wound up a well-beaten sixth. However, he somewhat redeemed himself 3 1/2 months later when winning the Travers S. (G1) on dirt. Considering that he is by dual Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) winner Tiznow (on the dirt at Churchill and Belmont) and out of a mare by champion dirt horse Turkoman, it should not be considered a surprise that Colonel John is suited to dirt.

Colonel John returned to Southern California following the Travers, but he's not been able to reproduce his previous form over the new Pro-Ride surface. While compromised by a slightly wide trip, he flattened out to finish sixth in the Breeders' Cup Classic and then ran perhaps the worst race of his career when fourth of seven in the Malibu S. (G1).

One of the questions this year surrounding West Coast horses' ability to handle dirt was answered emphatically last weekend by I Want Revenge (Stephen Got Even), who blitzed his opposition in the Gotham S. (G3) at Aqueduct and backed up the confidence of trainer Jeff Mullins, who said before the race that his charge was better on dirt than synthetics.

Typical of many runners by his sire, Stephen Got Even, I Want Revenge took a few starts before showing his best form. After breaking his maiden over the Cushion Track at Hollywood, he ran second, beaten a nose, to Pioneerof the Nile (Empire Maker) in the Cashcall Futurity (G1). In his next start, the Robert B. Lewis S. (G2) on Santa Anita's Pro-Ride, I Want Revenge finished third behind Pioneerof the Nile and Papa Clem (Smart Strike).

At Aqueduct, few three-year-olds in the nation could have beaten I Want Revenge last Saturday when he put up a BRIS Speed figure of 113, no less than 18 points higher than his previous best. Looking at the colt's pedigree, it is easy to see that he would improve on dirt after racing over a synthetic track that favors turf-type horses. Stephen Got Even did not start on grass, and his runners on that surface have proved vastly inferior to his dirt horses. Indeed, he ranked 363rd with an SPI (Standard Production Index) of 0.74 (26 percent below average) with his turf runners in 2008, while on the dirt he finished in 49th with an SPI of 1.13. Furthermore, I Want Revenge's dam, the Argentinean-bred Meguial (Arg) (Roy), tried the grass twice in the United States with dismal results, finishing last and second last. On the dirt, she placed in three U.S. stakes races. Her sire, Roy, was unplaced in both of his turf attempts.

The first reaction to I Want Revenge's Gotham win may have been to speculate as to how good Pioneerof the Nile and Papa Clem must be after beating him fair and square in the Robert Lewis. However, the question now posed to handicappers is whether those two will also improve when faced with traditional dirt.

One will not have to wait long to find out if Papa Clem adapts because he is entered in Saturday's Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds. By Smart Strike, whose offspring seem to handle all surfaces, Papa Clem is out of Miss Houdini (Belong to Me), who made all four of her starts on dirt, including a win in the Del Mar Debutante (G1). Miss Houdini's sire, Belong to Me, won seven of 14 starts on dirt but didn't fare well in two grass attempts. Papa Clem's second dam, Magical Maiden (Lord Avie), was a stakes winner on the turf from two tries but showed superior dirt form when finishing third in the Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1). With a prevalence of top dirt performances in his immediate pedigree, one would surmise that Papa Clem, like I Want Revenge, will improve on traditional dirt.

As with Colonel John a year ago, bettors will have to take a chance on whether Pioneerof the Nile reproduces his synthetic form because he won't make his first start until Derby Day. After breaking his maiden at Saratoga on the turf for trainer Bill Mott, Pioneerof the Nile finished a decent, closing third in the Breeders' Futurity (G1) on Keeneland's Polytrack. Shipped west for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), the colt ran well to be fifth over the Pro-Ride, beaten less than three lengths despite a wide draw and traffic trouble on the first turn.

After the Breeders' Cup, Pioneerof the Nile was transferred to the barn of Bob Baffert, who believes that there is a very good chance the colt will handle the transition to dirt based on his win in the CashCall Futurity over Hollywood Park's Cushion Track, which, Baffert maintains, plays closer to dirt than turf.

After Pioneerof the Nile defeated I Want Revenge by a nose in the Cashcall Futurity, the margin between the pair in their next meeting in the Robert Lewis S. was 1 1/2 lengths, perhaps a reflection of Santa Anita's Pro-Ride surface being more conducive to Pioneerof the Nile's closing style. I Want Revenge raced close to the pace that afternoon.

On pedigree, it must be considered a close call as to whether Pioneeror the Nile is better suited to the Pro-Ride or dirt. His sire, Empire Maker, was good enough to finish second in the Derby and win the Belmont S. (G1), but he's having a lot of success with turf runners early in his stud career. Empire Maker's dam, Toussaud (by the mostly turf influence El Gran Senor), raced exclusively on grass, winning the Gamely H. (G1), and she's passed on turf genes to other stakes-winning offspring. Chester House, Chiselling and Decarchy were known for their success on turf, and Toussaud's fifth graded winner, Honest Lady, made her name on the dirt (although being by Seattle Slew may offer some explanation), but she did win one of her two tries on the grass.

Pioneerof the Nile’s female side may offer more encouragement since his dam, Star of Goshen (Lord at War [Arg]), won three of her five starts on dirt, including the La Troienne S. by 11 lengths. However, while her sire, Lord At War, is also the broodmare sire of Kentucky Derby winner War Emblem, his best Grade 1 winners in that capacity -- John's Call, Honor In War and La Gueriere -- all achieved their biggest wins on the grass. Lord at War is also responsible as a broodmare sire for Grade 1 turf winners Citronnade and Purim, as well as Breeders' Cup Classic winner Raven's Pass, a top-class turf horse in Europe who relished the Pro-Ride surface at Santa Anita.


 

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