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PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING SEPTEMBER 19, 2009 Speightstown by Tim Holland While Speightstown, who had cost Eugene Melynk $2 million as a yearling, made his debut in the care of Todd Pletcher at Saratoga in the summer of his juvenile year, it was four years later that he won his first stakes race, the Artax H. at Gulfstream Park. This win was the first of five victories in 2004 which included the Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) at Lone Star which would secure the then six-year-old the title of champion sprinter. The son of Gone West, who has produced successful sires such as Grand Slam, Elusive Quality and Proud Citizen, was retired to stand at WinStar Fam in 2005. From his first crop of 98 named foals, of which 41 raced, Speightstown was represented by two stakes winners in 2008: Haynesfield, who won the Damon Runyon S. at Aqueduct and Lord Shanakill, winner of the Mill Reef S. (Eng-G2) at Newbury in England. The sire also produced Gemswick Park and Munnings, who were both Grade 1-placed in New York, and the stallion finished fifth in the year-end Leading First Crop Sire list. This year Speightstown has already eight stakes winners to his credit -- a total only topped by Tapit, and he is currently third behind Medaglia d'Oro and Birdstone in the Leading Second-Crop Sires list. Munnings is presently the sire's leading earner with wins in the Woody Stephens S. (G2) and the Tom Fool H. (G2), while Lord Shanakill provided the sire with his first Group/Grade 1 winner when scoring in the Prix Jean Prat in France. Gemswick Park won the Old Hat S. (G3) early in the year at Gulfstream. For handicappers that look closely at pedigrees, little nuggets of information can be the key to success. For example, many successful first-time starter sires such as Elusive Quality, Successful Appeal and Mutakddim have a significantly higher strike rate when one just takes into account their debutants as two-year-olds, excluding three-year-olds and upwards. However, debutants by some stallions prove to be more successful in their first starts when perhaps being allowed more time to develop. One example appears to be Speightstown, whose first three-year-olds are running this year. So far 91 runners by Speightstown have made their debuts in North America. Of these a very respectable number of 19 (21 percent) have won. When broken down by ages the figures, even though the sample size is not huge, are very interesting. Indeed, runners by the sire that have debuted as juveniles now (in 2009 as well as 2008) number 58 of which eight, or 14 percent, won. However, 35 have made their first start as three-year-olds this year and no less than 11 (31 percent) have been victorious. Payoffs on these winners included $28.80 for Senor Fuego at Churchill; $22.40 (Jersey Town, Gulfstream); $20.80 (Run Carly Run, Gulfstream) and $16.80 (Dark Starlet also at Gulfstream). A $2 win bet on all debuting runners by the sire would have returned $147.60 for $70 wagered -- a huge profit of $77.60, or 110 percent. Another notable statistic is that of the 48 runners by Speightstown that made unsuccessful debuts as juveniles, 38 have made at least one subsequent start and, of these, 11, for a high rate of 29 percent, won their second race. A $2 win bet on these runners would have returned $90.30 for a profit of $14.30, a decent, but not quite so spectacular, 19 percent. Runners by Speightstown have found success on all surfaces. The example of Lord Shanakill in Europe proves that some of his offspring can handle the turf, over which their success rate is 14 percent. On synthetic surfaces, the stakes winning pair Congor Bay and Mullins Beach have helped Speightstown's achieve a 17 percent win rate. However, on traditional dirt surfaces, his win rate is a far superior 24 percent. Breaking this down further finds another nugget. Off-track runners by Speightstown have been winning at an impressive 30 percent and a $2 win bet on each would have realized a profit of $66.10 for a stake of $140, or 47 percent.
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