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KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT

FEBRUARY 4, 2010

by James Scully

After winning the Holy Bull S. (G3) a week earlier, WINSLOW HOMER (Unbridled's Song) was diagnosed with a stress fracture in his cannon bone and taken off the Derby Trail on Tuesday. If he makes a full recovery, the gray colt is expected back this summer.

It's gut-wrenching when an exciting Kentucky Derby (G1) prospect is sidelined, and Winslow Homer looked like a potential force following his stakes debut in the Holy Bull, but his health woes didn't come as a shock. He's a lightly-raced colt by the superb sire Unbridled's Song, who dealt with soundness issues during his three-year-old campaign. Winslow Homer isn't the first offspring of the 17-year-old stallion to face similar hurdles.

After winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) in his third career start, Unbridled's Song entered 1996 as the Derby favorite. He opened his sophomore season with a pair of runner-up finishes as the odds-on favorite in the Hutcheson S. (G2) and Fountain of Youth S. (G2), and then flashed his immense talent in the Florida Derby (G1), romping by 5 3/4 lengths. That performance stamped him as the horse to beat at Churchill Downs, but something wasn't right with one of his feet. With a bar shoe applied to the bad wheel, Unbridled's Song still managed to lead the Derby field by two lengths at the top of the stretch, but the favorite faltered in the final furlong to fifth behind Grindstone.

Unbridled's Song is too good not to be represented by a Derby winner eventually, but he's lost his top contender this year in Winslow Homer. Grade 3-placed Mission Impazible, who returned from an eight-month freshening to finish second in a six-furlong allowance on January 9, is probably his best hope left in 2010. This happened last year with Midshipman, who looked the part when capturing the Breeders' Cup Juvenile but wound up sidelined until September. Other setbacks include Buddha, who was knocked out on Derby week in 2002 after opening the year with three straight victories. The Wood Memorial S. (G1) winner never raced again. Old Fashioned, Rockport Harbor and Eurosilver were all top-class juvenile performers by Unbridled's Song who didn't stay sound throughout their Derby season.

The ill-fated Eight Belles, runner-up in the 2008 edition, is his best Derby runner so far. Dunkirk looked talented enough in 2009, but trainer Todd Pletcher couldn't get him to the races at two (career debut on January 24) and his inexperience showed in the mud on Derby Day. The promising colt was retired following a second in the Belmont S. (G1).

Among present-day sires, Unbridled's Song is unsurpassed in terms of producing talented Derby prospects, but his offspring don't always get the chance to show it.

Drossel

With no stakes action to review from last week, DROSSELMEYER's (Distorted Humor) victory over allowance/optional claiming rivals on Sunday stands out. The Bill Mott-trained colt dropped his first three career starts on synthetics/turf last year, but he finally found his groove when trying dirt at Churchill Downs in mid-November, registering a six-length maiden special weight victory that was good for a 99 BRIS Speed rating. He netted a 105 Speed number for his 1 3/4-length decision at Gulfstream Park on Sunday.

The chestnut rated comfortably off a fast early pace (:22 4/5 and :46 4/5) in the 1 1/8-mile event, bided his time along the rail in tight quarters through the far turn, and accelerated nicely after being guided to the outside at the top of the stretch, collaring the leaders and drawing clear beneath Kent Desormeaux. It was a strong performance time-wise, with Drosselmeyer receiving a 101 BRIS Late Pace rating after running his final eighth in :12 4/5, and he established himself as another top prospect for WinStar Farm.

WinStar's deep roster already includes Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) winner SUPER SAVER (Maria's Mon), Delta Jackpot S. (G3) victor RULE (Roman Ruler) and Hollywood Prevue S. (G3) scorer AMERICAN LION (Tiznow), and Drosselmeyer, while still unproven against stakes rivals, has the highest Speed rating of the bunch. He looks like a stakes-quality colt, an improving type who may have shown more earlier if not stuck in synthetic/turf races, and his Hall of Fame trainer has become much more focused upon winning the Derby in recent years.

Dirt experience

Champion two-year-old filly She Be Wild (Offlee Wild) wasn't viewed as a Derby contender prior to Sunday's Forward Gal S. (G2), but her fifth-place effort shows the pitfalls of assuming that every top-class synthetic horse will run well on dirt. Her subpar performance may prove irrelevant in future Grade 1 dirt races -- Colonel John won the Travers (G1) after disappointing in the Derby -- but it's an example worth noting.

Champion LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Smart Strike) is a serious racehorse who is bred to handle a dirt track, but there's no guarantee he'll make a seamless transition, especially if his connections decide to experiment in front of 150,000 people against 19 rivals. It isn't the same as shipping in from California for the Wood Memorial or Arkansas Derby (G1). Lookin at Lucky can get a feel for dirt in the mornings at Churchill Downs, but he'll face different circumstances during the afternoon. Trainer Bob Baffert talked openly about getting him a dirt prep race following his win in the CashCall Futurity (G1), and that's sound strategy for all the synthetic-based contenders in California.

Upcoming

AMERICAN LION will make his highly-anticipated three-year-old bow in Saturday's Robert B. Lewis S. (G2) at Santa Anita, and the Eoin Harty-trained colt will face six rivals in the 1 1/16-mile test. Baffert will send out two of the challengers, including TIZ CHROME (Tiznow). The unbeaten colt broke his maiden at Churchill Downs and concluded his juvenile campaign with an easy four-length win in the Stuka S. at Hollywood Park.

Saturday's Whirlaway S. at Aqueduct marks the stakes bow for EIGHTYFIVEINAFIFTY (Forest Camp), who created quite a stir when breaking his maiden by a 17 1/4-length margin in early January.


 

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