|
|
KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT FEBRUARY 11, 2010 by James Scully Rain forced Santa Anita to postpone the Robert B. Lewis S. (G2), leaving us with another slow weekend of stakes action for Kentucky Derby (G1) hopefuls, but the schedule will pick up over the upcoming holiday weekend with a trio of graded stakes. Pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager opens its three-day run on Friday, and we'll take a look at it below. Whirlaway Saturday's Whirlaway S. at Aqueduct featured a short cast of five sophomores, and the pre-race focus fell upon EIGHTYFIVEINAFIFTY (Forest Camp), who earned a 109 BRIS Speed rating for his 17 1/4-length romp over maiden special weight rivals on January 9. The Gary Contessa runner was stretching out to two turns for the first time in the 1 1/16-mile test, but he lost all chance when bolting into the first turn. The 1-5 favorite broke the heart of some heavy show bettors, and jockey Jorge Chavez couldn't stop him from busting through the outer fence of the inner track. The bay colt dislodged Chavez from the saddle and jumped the fence to the main track, which led him to run free through the stable area. He was bound for the streets outside of Aqueduct when security guards grabbed him. Eightyfiveinafifty emerged with a broken bit and a cut on his right hind leg, but he's still sound, according to Contessa. His two-turn debut will have to wait. PEPPI KNOWS (Stephen Got Even), who was exiting a non-threatening second in the Remsen S. (G2), flattered the form of top Kentucky Derby (G1) hopeful BUDDY'S SAINT (Saint Liam) and garnered a respectable 101 BRIS Speed rating for his one-length decision over AFLEET AGAIN (Afleet Alex), but he was far from impressive in the final furlongs. The top three finishers all appeared to be out of gas in deep stretch, and the runner-up, who recorded a dull fifth at 30-1 in the Count Fleet S. two starts back, doesn't provide much of a barometer in terms of competition. Based at Penn National, the Timothy Keiser-trained winner captured the Finger Lakes Juvenile S. by a head prior to the Remsen. Derby Future Wager With a near 50 percent strike rate, the mutuel field of "all other three-year-olds" has proven to be a safe bet in Pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager. In the 11 previous editions, the mutuel field has yielded five wins in Pool 1, with payouts of $10.20, $8.60, $7.60, $5.80 and $5.60. The lofty $10.20 return occurred during the first year in 1999, but we won't see odds in that vicinity this weekend. There are too many questions surrounding the top contenders at this point on the calendar, so expect the final price on Sunday to be closer to 6-5 than 4-1. Many of the top individual betting interests haven't started this year, and the dirt form of synthetic horses is a legitimate concern. The top three finishers in the 2009 Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) are all listed in Pool 1, and none have raced on dirt. Street Sense and Barbaro, the last two Derby winners offered as individual interests in Pool 1, show the value of supporting any horse who you think will be a lower price on the first Saturday in May. After being named champion two-year-old in 2006, Street Sense closed at 10-1 in Pool 1 of the Future Wager, and he wound up being the 9-2 favorite in the Derby. Barbaro was 19-1 in Pool 1 and 6-1 on Derby Day. Giacomo is the other extreme. Bettors knocked him down to 25-1 in Pool 1, but he was overlooked at 50-1 in his Derby upset. Champion two-year-old LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Smart Strike) is the lowest-priced individual on oddsmaker Mike Battaglia's morning line at 8-1, and Buddy's Saint (12-1) and SUPER SAVER (Maria's Mon) (15-1) will also draw support based on their exploits at two. If TIZ CHROME (Tiznow), who easily broke his maiden on the dirt at Churchill Downs, wins Saturday's Robert B. Lewis, his price will probably tumble from 20-1. I'll spread with multiple horses and demand value. The following three horses are still relatively unproven, but they'll have the opportunity to make a major impact over the next 78 days: MAXIMUS RULER (Roman Ruler), who is listed at 50-1 and won't be racing this weekend, immediately caught my eye when the field was released on Wednesday morning. Despite being poorly-placed on the lead, Maximus Ruler stubbornly held for second when making his stakes debut in the Lecomte S. (G3) on January 23. He's eligible to improve significantly off that effort, and the stalker will begin to garner serious respect if he captures the Risen Star S. (G2) on February 20. WinStar is well-represented by four of the 23 individual betting interests, and DROSSELMEYER (Distorted Humor) is the least accomplished of the quartet. However, he's registered the highest BRIS Speed rating of the WinStar horses, a 105 for his 1 3/4-length score at Gulfstream Park on January 31, and looks enticing at 20-1 on the Pool 1 morning line. The Bill Mott trainee didn't beat much in the 1 1/8-mile allowance, but I loved the way he was striding out in the stretch. ESKENDEREYA (Giant's Causeway) is another Gulfstream allowance winner who looks very promising. Listed at 20-1, he remained perfect on dirt (two-for-two) with a good-looking victory on January 7, and the Todd Pletcher pupil gained valuable stakes experience in two starts last fall, including a 7 1/4-length romp in the off-the-turf Pilgrim S. at Belmont Park. I'm willing to excuse his ninth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile since the colt's only losses have come on turf and synthetic tracks. Upcoming Following a one-week delay, AMERICAN LION (Tiznow) and Tiz Chrome will square this Saturday in the Robert Lewis, which will be held over 1 1/16 miles on Pro-Ride. Other runners include impressive maiden winner DAVE IN DIXIE (Dixie Union), who will make his first start since a sixth in the Norfolk S. (G1), and unbeaten California-bred CARACORTADO (Cat Dreams). Saturday's Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs represents the graded debut of UPTOWNCHARLYBROWN (Limehouse), who will put his perfect mark on the line against six rivals over 8 1/2 furlongs. The Alan Seewald charge won his career debut by nine lengths on December 26 and rolled to a six-length decision in the January 16 Pasco S., both at Tampa. He'll be tested for class by the Pletcher-trained RULE (Roman Ruler), who wrapped up his juvenile campaign with a victory in the lucrative Delta Jackpot S. (G3). Monday's Southwest S. (G3) at Oaklawn Park shapes up as a battle between a couple of front runners in CONVEYANCE (Indian Charlie) and DRYFLY (Jump Start). The former will ship into Oaklawn for Bob Baffert off a 1 3/4-length win in the San Rafael S. (G3), and the latter cruised to a facile 2 1/4-length score in the Smarty Jones S. for conditioner Lynn Whiting.
 Send this article to a friend
|
|
