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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

FEBRUARY 12, 2010

by Dick Powell

Fast-paced races usually result in the highest speed figures, but QUALITY ROAD's (Elusive Quality) romping win in Saturday's Donn H. (G1) was more than fast fractions. It was the best two-turn, main track performance we have seen in a long time.

We know Quality Road loves the Gulfstream main track, as he set a track record last year when winning the Florida Derby (G1) and has won two other graded events over that oval. But there was nothing about Saturday's racing on the main track that would indicate that a track record was coming.

In the prior two main track races before the Donn, DAY OF DESTINY (Distorted Humor) won a seven-furlong maiden special weight event for three-year-olds in the time of 1:23.22. In the 8TH race, even-money favorite WILDCAT FRANKIE (Wildcat Heir) won a first-level allowance race going a mile in 1:38.51.

Considering Wildcat Frankie ran BRIS Speed ratings of 104 in his first two career starts, his final time for the mile would indicate that the main track was playing slower than normal.

But, then came Quality Road.

Just like he behaved in the Hal's Hope S. (G3), Quality Road was an angel loading into the starting gate. As expected, Past the Point (Indian Charlie) went to the front and John Velazquez had Quality Road in a perfect, stalking position outside of him.

After a first quarter in a solid 23.21, the second quarter was a blazing 22.81 and neither horse was showing any sign of letting up. The third quarter was 23.85 as they hit three-quarters in 1:09.87. Midway around the far turn, Past the Point began to tire from the demanding pace but Quality Road maintained his tempo.

Velazquez had the race won at the top of the stretch and could have easily jogged him to the wire. Instead, he asked Quality Road for more run and he began to widen his lead with each stride. After a mile in 1:34.78, he had a five-length lead but Quality Road was not done running and he threw in a final furlong of 12.71 to win by 12 3/4 lengths with a final time of 1:47.49.

Quality Road earned a career-best BRIS Speed rating of 116 and I think it could have been higher. When you factor in he raced pretty wide for most of the two turns, his performance looks even better.

Still a bit of a question mark at 10 furlongs, trainer Todd Pletcher's immediate plan is to give him a bit of a rest and then point for the May 31 Metropolitan H. (G1) at Belmont Park going a mile.

*****

I've been waiting for TIZ CHROME's (Tiznow) seasonal debut and after being delayed a week due to heavy rain in Southern California, he comes back in Saturday's re-scheduled Robert B. Lewis S. (G2) at Santa Anita.

Winner of his two career starts going short, this will be his two-turn debut, but with a sire like Tiznow that should not be a problem. When Tiz Chrome won the Stuka S. at Hollywood Park going 6 1/2 furlongs in 1:14 2/5, his BRIS pace figures of 89 (E1), 93 (E2) and 102 (Late Pace) indicated a horse who will have no trouble going longer.

Last year, I was enamored with Pioneerof the Nile and he came through with a solid second in the Kentucky Derby (G1). So far this year, it's Tiz Chrome and I'll play him in this weekend's Kentucky Derby Future Wager.

One word of caution. Tiz Chrome went through the 2008 Keeneland September Yearling Sale and was bought back after his top bid was only $9,000. Considering that his sire was standing for $75,000 back then, Tiz Chrome had to have some physical issues. However, after breaking his maiden at Churchill Downs last November, Bob Baffert bought him for an undisclosed price that I'm guessing had to be near seven figures.


 

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