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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS MARCH 12, 2010 by Dick Powell How can you lose when a horse you like wins? Welcome to the Pick 6 where resource allocation is as important as handicapping. On Sunday at Santa Anita, there was a $207,271 Pick 6 carryover. This was a one-day carryover, which is hard to believe since the prevailing media wisdom is that big bettors have abandoned racetracks with synthetic racing surfaces. An additional $819,933 was bet into the pool on Sunday and $72 of it was my hard-earned money. The first leg was a 6 1/2-furlong sprint that was originally scheduled to be run on the turf for optional claiming company of $62,500 or nonwinners of three races lifetime. It attracted a full field of 10 and the favorite was RED SUN (Reddatore [Brz]), winner of his three turf starts for Carla Gaines, including two at course and distance. While Red Sun was listed as the 9-5 morning-line favorite, the betting public went overboard and made him the 9-10 favorite despite all three (a maiden win against Cal-breds did not count in the allowance conditions) of his wins coming on the turf. My problem here is I felt the race was far more competitive and went with Red Sun as well as Tribal Justice (Tribal Rule) and Position A (Aldeberan). Both went off at long odds (21-1 and 17-1), and neither ran a lick. Red Sun was under heavy pressure throughout, gave up the lead in the deep stretch, and then battled back gamely on the inside to win by a neck. Yes, it's great to be alive but I wasted a lot of ammunition by going three deep in a race that an odds-on favorite won. I might have been right about the race being more competitive than it was being bet, but it would have been nice to have singled Red Sun and have some bullets when I needed them. I won but really lost. The second leg of Sunday's Pick 6 at Santa Anita knocked me out when PACIFIC HALO (Devil's Bag) won a four-horse photo at odds of 11-1. This was a horse that was impossible for me to like at any odds. Yes, he was beaten less than two lengths when dropped down to this class level for the first time but he was 65-1 that day and his recent form was not competitive. All the resources in the world weren't going to lead me to play Pacific Halo. I went two deep in here and the closest I got was Country Tough (Smart Strike), who rallied to finish within a half-length of the top four at 5-1. Where my mistake in the first leg really caught up to me was in leg three. I hit the last three legs by going 2 X 1 X 1, but my chance for five of six and two consolations that paid $781 each went down in flames by not being able to go deep enough in a very competitive maiden special weight for three-year-old fillies going six furlongs on the main track. I went three deep in here and it wasn't enough. Five of the eight starters were firsters, and it was hard to leave any of them out. One I liked but didn't use since I wasted resources in the first leg was the eventual winner, JAWS N' PAWS (Onebadshark). Trainer Brian Koriner knows his way around firsters, and Jaws N' Paws' workout pattern was strong. Andy Harrington's National Turf Clocker Report had her last two works rated as B-, and she has consistently worked every week since the beginning of the year. Jaws N Paws' dam was a stakes winner, and her first foal to race was Onebadkitty (Street Cry [Ire]), who is a stakes winner. Pedigree, connections and workout pattern is what you look for with first-time starters. She rallied from far back with Joe Talamo to win going away at nearly 15-1, but she was far more playable than 11-1 winner Pacific Halo. With the last three races being pretty formful and an odds-on favorite winning the first leg, it was surprising that the winning Pick 6 combination paid a healthy $220,817, which was about five times the parlay. Even with the healthy carryover, this was quite an overlay. I don't kick myself for not hitting the whole thing, but two consolation tickets worth $1,562 was right there waiting to be had.
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