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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS MARCH 19, 2010 by Dick Powell One thing that sticks out like a sore thumb from last week's racing is how inaccurate speed figures of horses racing on synthetic racetracks are. Case in point was ZARDANA (Brz) (Crimson Tide), the upset winner of the New Orleans Ladies S. over 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra (Medaglia d'Oro) at the Fair Grounds. In four starts on synthetic tracks, Zardana had never earned a BRIS Speed Rating over 100. Her best effort was a 99 when she won the Bayakoa H. (G2) two starts back. In her last start, Zardana earned a paltry 92 when fourth in the Santa Maria H (G2). So, naturally, Zardana goes to the dirt of Fair Grounds and pulls off the shocker over Rachel who has run as high as 116 on dirt. If these speed figures are accurate, Zardana, at the age of six, jumped up to run a career-best speed figure of 102. But, a closer look at her speed figures in previous synthetic starts might show that she was a better mare than the numbers indicated. In my opinion, fast-paced dirt races earn higher speed ratings than slow-paced dirt races. Turf racing, which usually has a slower pace, earns lower speed ratings. Synthetic track racing, which also has a slower pace, earns lower speed ratings. When you examine the Bayakoa, there was a demanding pace of :46.80 for a half and 1:10.63 for six furlongs in a race that Zardana earned a 99 speed rating. In the Santa Maria, the pace was much slower with a half in :48.03 and six furlongs in 1:12.47, and Zardana earned a 92. Yes, she won the Bayakoa and was beaten four lengths in the Santa Maria but it showed that she ran better closing into a fast pace than a slow pace. Now, let's look at 2009 juvenile champion LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Smart Strike). Last year, he won five of six starts including the Norfolk S. (G1) and CashCall Futurity (G1) while just missing in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1). Despite that gaudy record, his highest BRIS Speed Rating was an anemic 95. All his starts came on synthetic racetracks. This year, trainer Bob Baffert decided to give him a prep over dirt to see how he would handle it. Despite an extremely rough trip when Garrett Gomez was almost unseated going down the backstretch and a wide trip around the far turn, Lookin at Lucky showed why he was a champion and ran down a courageous Noble's Promise (Cuvee) in the shadow of the wire. So here you had two terrific sophomore colts battling it out to the wire, and both were making their dirt debuts while never running a BRIS Speed Rating over 95. Naturally, they both earned 102s for their effort. Synthetic career bests: 95; dirt career best; 102. And, I'm not knocking BRIS Speed Ratings since they reflect the objective data that is being measured. And, this disparity between synthetic speed figures and dirt speed figures is true with all the major providers of speed figures. And, the disparity is undeniable when we are talking about two-turn races. But as a handicapper, I know that the synthetic speed figures are artificially low just as turf speed figures are low. The difference is that true turf horses usually do not carry over their form to dirt racing, but synthetic track horses seem to be able to do it with no trouble. And, if you believe their synthetic track form, they tend to run new, career best races when switched to dirt. **** The Florida Derby (G1) will be run this Saturday at Gulfstream Park, and it looks like it will be a terrific race with 11 evenly-matched contenders. The first three finishers of the Fountain of Youth S. (G2) are not entered, but the fourth, fifth and sixth-place finishers are. And even with $750,000 of graded stakes earnings at stake, there are only two graded stakes winners in the field. RULE (Roman Ruler) is the only dirt graded stakes winner in the field, and he is the 5-2 morning-line favorite. RADIOHEAD (GB) (Johannesburg) is the only other graded/group stakes winner in the field, and he did that on the turf in Great Britain. The rest of the field are allowance types, but as we have seen this winter at Gulfstream, that is where the action has been. I'll be playing against Rule for a number of reasons. I like the fact that he's fast and game, but don't see him being able to move up in class going nine furlongs. He has more than enough graded earnings, and I can't see Todd Pletcher having him cranked up for a 100 percent effort on Saturday. Radiohead ran a terrific race here when he won his dirt debut going a mile in fast time against allowance foes. He looks like he's going to run out of pedigree here and will have to overcome post 11. I loved MINER'S RESERVE's (Mineshaft) maiden win here going a mile while earning a 102 BRIS Speed Rating. Nick Zito-trained youngsters tend to improve with racing and distance, and this one gets both on Saturday. He'll be tough even from post 9. But for me, the horse to beat is GAME ON DUDE (Awesome Again), who was second to Mine N Gems (Mineshaft) in a key race going seven furlongs, then came back to win easily next time out here despite breaking in the air at the start. He's 12-1 in the morning line, and if we get 8-1, I'll be happy. Unlike most of his competition, he drew well and showed last time out that he can pass horses with authority when asked. **** The greatest pacing Standardbred I ever saw was NIATROSS (Albatross). He was undefeated until jumping over the hub rail at Saratoga Raceway when Clint Galbreath had to hit him with the whip for the first time. In his next start, a qualifier for the $1 million Meadowlands Pace, he kicked the bike, broke stride and finished fourth which still earned him a spot in the final the following week. Niatross' co-owner, Lou Guida, wanted to retire him on the spot. He was dead set against running him a week later for fear of hurting his stud value, which Guida would control completely when Niatross turned four. Fortunately, for racing and Niatross, Guida was only a co-owner and was outvoted by Galbreath and Elsie Berger who still controlled his racing career. Galbreath worked him a mile in 2:14, pronounced him fit and ready, and over Guida's objections, ran in the Meadowlands Pace. The rest, as they say, was history. Not only did Niatross dominate in winning the Meadowlands Pace but he never lost another race while winning and setting track and world records up until New Year's Eve at Pompano Park. Unfortunately for racing and Rachel Alexandra, there is no Clint Galbreath present who would understand that a loss is not the end of the world and that even champions lose every now and then.
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