|
|
HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS MARCH 26, 2010 by Dick Powell Meydan Racecourse will be the scene for the richest day of racing in history when it hosts the Dubai World Cup card on Saturday. $26 million in purses has attracted 36 Group/Grade 1 stakes winners with horses from all corners of the world competing at racing's most futuristic venue. I create the morning line for all races from Meydan and have handicapped all the races for this year's Dubai International Racing Carnival. Doing the morning line for Saturday's races, using the form guide on the emiratesracing.com's web site, is a handicapping exercise worth doing since it challenges all the angles you have ever utilized. Absent of speed or performances figures for most of the horses, you have to have an understanding of where these horses competed and who they were up against. My goal is to accurately reflect where the betting money will go on Saturday and the lines are not my own handicapping. If a horse I have made the morning line favorite is the actual post time favorite, then I am quite happy regardless of the actual odds they go off. Saturday's pools will be predominantly North American money, with some from South Africa, Germany and the United Kingdom. A couple of things to know before you try to handicap and bet these races. First thing you will see is that the Dubai Golden Shaheen (UAE-G1), which was always run down the straightaway at Nad al Sheba, will now be run around one turn. The Al Quoz Sprint (UAE-G3), however, will be run down the straightaway of Meydan's turf course. At Meydan, the 1 1/2-mile turf course is on the outside similar to the configuration of Woodbine. The Tapeta main track is inside the turf course and is about 1 1/8 miles with a mile chute that has a slight dogleg similar to Churchill Downs. Because of the size of the turf course, the Dubai Duty Free (UAE-G1) at about 1 1/8 miles will be run around one turn. The betting pools and wager types are similar with one major exception. Place betting goes down three places -- similar to our show wagering, but, there is no show wagering. You can bet win and/or place with the winner and three place horses. Place wagering might not sound lucrative to you but a review of the charts from the Carnival show many juicy payoffs. There is also exacta, trifecta, $1 superfecta wagering, rolling Pick 3s, a Pick 6 beginning with the 3RD race (the second Thoroughbred race of the day) and a late double with the final two races. With 16 horses in the Duty Free and Sheema Classic (UAE-G1) and 14 horses in the Dubai World Cup (UAE-G1), the late Pick 3 should be very challenging and rewarding; if successful In the Al Quoz Sprint, I am going with Aussie shipper ALL SILENT (Belong to Me) over the speedy CALIFORNIA FLAG (Avenue of Flags) and South African shipper OUR GIANT (Giant's Causeway). DESERT PARTY (Street Cry) will be a strong favorite in the Godolphin Mile (UAE-G2) and I am playing him over CAT JUNIOR (Storm Cat), who woke up with a big win last out when blinkers were added, and SKYSURFERS (E Dubai), who has a win at course and distance. The U.A.E. Derby (UAE-G2) will be contested at about 1 3/16 miles this year and I am going with a bit of an upset with RAIHANA (Elusive Quality), a filly coming off a terrific win at the distance in the UAE Oaks at this distance. She is favorably weighted and draws well for a come-from-behind trip. MUSIR (Redoute's Choice) has won both of his starts at Meydan but tries two turns for the first time. MENDIP (Harlan's Holiday) is undefeated in three starts, with a win at course/distance, and could be any kind. The Dubai Golden Shaheen will be run around a turn for the first time so post positions matter. I went logical here with GAYEGO (Gilded Time) as my top pick over ROCKET MAN (Viscount), who is eight-for-nine with his only loss by a neck to Sacred Kingdom (Encosta de Lago), the highest rated sprinter in the world, and MUTHEEB (Danzig), who had a great year racing at Meydan. $20 million is on the line in the last three races of the day and they are a Rubik's Cube of handicapping. In the Duty Free, I went with GOOD BA BA (Lear Fan), who is one of the world's great milers and will try to get an extra furlong. A good effort last out going 10 furlongs from a wide post shows it can be done. IMBONGI (Russian Revival) has not won over a mile but has run great on the Meydan turf. PRESVIS (Sakhee) has to overcome post 15 -- a bulky field will be his biggest obstacle. In the Dubai Sheema Classic, I'm looking for the Japanese to continue their success in the past with Heart's Cry and Admire Moon with BUENA VISTA (Special Week). She just missed in the Arima Kinen (Jpn-G1) going slightly longer at the end of last year and then came out this year with a sharp win going 11 furlongs. PRESIOUS PASSION (Royal Anthem) will be hard to catch with his front-running tactics against a bulky field that is unlikely to challenge him early. SPANISH MOON (El Prado [Ire]) just missed in this race last year and gets Ryan Moore back. The Dubai World Cup will be run for a record $10 million this year and the race has attracted a deep field of 14 horses. I have said all along that if VISION D'ETAT (Chichicastenango) draws well, I would go with him. He drew post 6, loves 10 furlongs and showed last year that he can take his race anywhere with Group 1 wins at Ascot, Longchamp and Sha Tin. I came real close to putting RED DESIRE (Manhattan Cafe) on top here off a terrific win over the track at this distance three weeks ago when she passed 12 rivals in the homestretch. RICHARD'S KID (Lemon Drop Kid) has been the talk of the backstretch all week and with a Grade one win at this distance on a synthetic track you can see why. CROWDED HOUSE (Rainbow Quest) is a horse that I just have a feeling that his Tapeta debut was not a fluke and he'll like 10 furlongs with some weight off. Saturday's Florida Derby (G1) did not go according to plan but I was not terribly surprised by the winner, ICE BOX (Pulpit). He had a sharp allowance win at 1 1/8 miles and then had an excuse in the Fountain of Youth. I didn't like either of the two graded stakes winners in the race but my pick, Game on Dude (Awesome Again), ran up behind horses while down on the rail for the first seven furlongs before coming up empty in the drive. Todd Pletcher may have come up empty in Florida last week when Rule (Roman Ruler) tired to be third in the Florida Derby, but he's right back at it again in Louisiana where he sends out MISSION IMPAZIBLE (Unbridled's Song) and DISCREETLY MINE (Mineshaft) in the Louisiana Derby (G2) at the Fair Grounds Trained by Stanley Hough last year, Discreetly Mine was switched to the Pletcher stable this year and recorded a gate-to-wire win in the Risen Star (G3) when allowed to set a dawdling pace. He'll be under more pressure Saturday but should also be fitter. Nick Zito won the Florida Derby last week and will send out FLY DOWN (Mineshaft) to try to move forward into Kentucky Derby (G1) contention. A winner of his last two starts going two turns, he gets tested for class on Saturday but draws well with Jose Lezcano in the irons. I wrote about him a few weeks ago and will make him my single on Saturday;s card. I loved the way he finished going nine furlongs last out and he should be much fitter in his second start off the layoff. Talk about being precocious. HOLY ROMAN EMPEROR (Danehill) was the second-leading juvenile male in Europe in 2006. When the ill-fated George Washington (Danehill) proved infertile at stud in early 2007, Coolmore decided to replace him with Holy Roman Emperor, who was suddenly retired and missed his three-year-old season. Having entered stud so early, it should not have come as much of a surprise when two colts by Holy Roman Emperor showed up at the opening of the Curragh on Sunday in Ireland and one of them, HIGH AWARD, won going away. What made High Award's presence in a race on March 21 interesting was that his dam won the Irish One Thousand Guineas (Ire-G1) and he cost more than $625,000 at auction as a weanling. Usually, high-priced auction purchases are handled with kid gloves but here was High Award showing up in the first flat race of the season in Ireland. With too much time between now and Royal Ascot, they will look for another race in between.
 Send this article to a friend
|
|
