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KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT APRIL 22, 2010 by James Scully Kentucky Derby (G1) favorite ESKENDEREYA (Giant Causeway) arrived at Churchill Downs on Tuesday and will be the center of attention every time he visits the track over the next nine days. One of seven possible starters for Todd Pletcher, Eskendereya exits a pair of dominant victories, rolling by 9 3/4 lengths in the Wood Memorial S. (G1) and by 8 1/2 lengths in the Fountain of Youth S. (G2). Pletcher also has DISCREETLY MINE (Mineshaft), MISSION IMPAZIBLE (Unbridled’s Song), RULE (Roman Ruler) and SUPER SAVER (Maria’s Mon) confirmed for the Derby. INTERACTIF (Broken Vow), who presently has enough graded earnings, is under consideration. And Pletcher stated Tuesday that the filly DEVIL MAY CARE (Malibu Moon), who would be one of the favorites in the Kentucky Oaks (G1), is a viable candidate for the Derby field if she works well this weekend at Churchill. She'll have no trouble getting in with $363,000 in graded earnings. Last week's lone Derby prep, Saturday's Lexington S. (G2), went to EXHI (Maria's Mon), who flashed to the front after the start and was never seriously threatened over the speed-friendly Polytrack at Keeneland. Exhi won't have the graded earnings to make the Derby field, but he could be pointed toward the Preakness S. (G1) at Pimlico. This Saturday's $200,000 Derby Trial S. (G3), which highlights Churchill Downs' opening-day program, provides one last opportunity to secure enough graded earnings for the Derby field, and a couple of starters, front-running specialist EIGHTYFIVEINAFIFTY (Forest Camp) and Florida Derby (G1) runner-up PLEASANT PRINCE (Indy King), are expected to wheel back a week later should they capture the one-mile event. AIKENITE (Yes It’s True), MINER'S RESERVE (Mineshaft), GAME ON DUDE (Awesome Again) and SOARING EMPIRE (Empire Maker) are also part of an intriguing 10-horse cast. Derby discussion Trainers Bob Baffert, Mike Maker and John Sadler each have a pair of bullets for the Derby and Nick Zito will saddle two if JACKSON BEND (Hear No Evil) can move up a spot from 21st on the graded earnings list. But Pletcher is readying a small army and his star pupil, Eskendereya, will be the big favorite come post time. Estimates vary on Eskendereya's eventual odds, with realistic predictions putting him as high as 5-2 and no lower than 9-5, and his final pre-race workout at Churchill this weekend could have a major impact upon his ultimate price. If he impresses with a superb drill, Eskendereya's already considerable support will continue to swell. Given his pedigree and recent performances, Eskendereya looms as a legitimate threat to overwhelm the competition with his immense talent, but there are reasons to play against him. A common concern surrounds the favorable conditions he faced in his last two wins, where he was able to track a slow pace with his natural speed, cruise unchallenged to the lead on the far turn and then roll through the stretch like a morning workout, never having to look another horse in the eye once the serious running began. It begs the question: how will Eskendereya fare when he doesn't have everything his own way on a false pace? Another thread centers on his trip. Eskendereya's speed benefited him in three wins this season, racing on or within a couple of lengths of the early lead from the start, but he runs the risk of getting burnt by a wicked pace duel up front if he doesn't relax during the opening stages of the Derby. Will he prove as effective stalking a fast pace? The athletic chestnut also showed up with first-time front wraps in the Wood, a precaution necessitated due to the nature of the main track at Aqueduct, according to Pletcher, but the equipment change immediately generated speculation about the colt's soundness. One can make a case against the favorite, but the validity of such arguments is highly debatable. LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Smart Strike) and SIDNEY'S CANDY (Candy Ride [Arg]) are already working well at Churchill and both will likely be less than 10-1, with Lookin at the Lucky the probable second choice in the wagering and Sidney's Candy third. The remaining 17 starters could all be double-digit odds. Lookin at Lucky is as honest as they come and will remove blinkers in Derby. With the hood, Lookin at Lucky managed to find trouble in both starts at three, mostly recently finishing third after being nearly stopped on the far turn. It will be no surprise to see him in the thick of things turning for home. Sidney's Candy is more of a wildcard. He's performed splendidly in his last two starts at route but got away with slow fractions, on an unopposed lead, both times. The colt is blessed with talent, but he'll change tactics and make his dirt debut in the Derby. Among other contenders, AWESOME ACT (Awesome Again) rates serious consideration. The Jeremy Noseda-trained colt turned in a terrific effort when making his U.S. debut in the Gotham S. (G3), displaying a quick burst of acceleration to put away his rivals, and his third in the Wood was compromised by the fact that he lost a shoe at the start and never settled into a comfortable stalking trip behind the tedious pace. He recorded a sharp six-furlong work at Churchill on Tuesday and appears poised to show up with his best on Derby Day. Super Saver is eligible to move forward off his final prep. An impressive five-length winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) at Churchill in his second stakes appearance, the bay didn't return to competition until March and was clearly a short horse in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), finishing third by a half-length. The front runner improved of that effort in the Arkansas Derby (G1), comfortably rating off the pacesetter before erasing a sizable gap on the far turn, and while he came up a neck short on the wire in second, he never quit trying and gained immeasurable fitness at Oaklawn Park. He should be tightened up for a career-best over a track he favors. ICE BOX (Pulpit), PADDY O'PRADO (El Prado [Ire]) and Discreetly Mine are three candidates for the exotics that look interesting to me at long odds. I'll give my final analysis and selections next week.
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