|
|
135TH PREAKNESS STAKES
Kentucky Derby (G1) winner SUPER SAVER (Maria's Mon) on paper figures to get an ideal trip in Saturday's $1 million Preakness S. (G1), the second jewel of the Triple Crown over 1 3/16 miles at Pimlico. His natural early speed should allow him to get in the clear and close to the lead in what looks like a paceless race, and it will be up to his opponents to try and cut into that deficit as they make their rallies from the back. There's even a chance the Todd Pletcher trainee might be the one cutting the fractions, and he demonstrated in the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) last November that he's capable of setting a moderately fast tempo and still leave plenty in the tank for the stretch. We feel Super Saver is the best in the field, but he's no cinch and value will most certainly be found elsewhere. We suggest being creative both in the win pool and the various exotics pools. If Ice Box (Pulpit) showed at Churchill Downs that he is the second-best three-year-old in the country, then on his best day PLEASANT PRINCE (Indy King) might not be too far behind. The Wesley Ward pupil was second to that rival by narrow margins in an allowance and the Florida Derby (G1), both at Gulfstream Park, and has had plenty of excuses in his last two. Attempts to get sufficient graded earnings to make the Derby, in the Blue Grass S. (G1) and Derby Trial S. (G3), backfired. He seemingly failed to handle the Polytrack at Keeneland, and last time he tried to make up loads of ground over a muddy, sealed Churchill strip but came away with only a minor award. With no Eskendereyas in the field, his chances of running a competitive race over a fast main track seem high. LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Smart Strike) is lookin for both luck and redemption after a rough trip as the favorite in the Derby. We feel that race, and his troubled third in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), are both tossouts. His Rebel S. (G2) win in his seasonal debut was solid, and he just needs a few breaks to build on that score. The main knock against is that regular jockey Garrett Gomez was sacked in favor of Martin Garcia, a talented but relatively inexperienced journeyman. It's not so much the jock switch as it is the karma (which is bad) that turns us against him, plus we believe the Derby winner is likely to work out a better trip. We'll tab the Bob Baffert trainee to show an improved finish in this one. FIRST DUDE (Stephen Got Even) is an interesting longshot. Some observers felt he was the best three-year-old working during Derby week, but he ultimately failed to draw into that field. His Blue Grass and Florida Derby tries weren't bad, and three back he was a strong second to eventual Dwyer S. (G2) winner Fly Down (Mineshaft) in a Gulfstream allowance. The bay hasn't quite run a race that screams "win," but the late-developer has the tools to turn in a breakout performance. While we think bad karma might drag Lookin at Lucky down, we don't necessarily think good karma will elevate DUBLIN (Afleet Alex), who Gomez now rides for D. Wayne Lukas, above more than a minor share. He didn't have nearly as much trouble as Lookin at Lucky in the Derby yet still finished behind him, and we also look down on his third in the Arkansas Derby (G1), where he failed to finish strongly into the teeth of a fast pace. Until he shows he can really close the deal with a swift, devastating bid, we're inclined to look elsewhere. PADDY O'PRADO (El Prado [Ire]) is a tough read. Yes, his Derby third was good, but by the same token this turf/synthetic ace might have benefited from the fact the Churchill strip was sloppy. He might react differently on a fast track. He's 9-2 on the morning line, but we expect his price to drift upward as he's almost certainly the forgotten horse among the Derby returnees. JACKSON BEND (Hear No Evil) should be prominent in the early stages, but it seems to us that trainer Nick Zito is trying to win this race with a third-stringer (Ice Box and Fly Down being his top two) and that strategy typically doesn't work in classic races. He's run four times this year and has yet to equal his five best BRIS Speed ratings from his juvenile campaign. We'll let him beat us. SCHOOLYARD DREAMS (Stephen Got Even) outran Super Saver to the wire in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), but inexplicably lost the whole thing in a photo after looking like a winner in deep stretch. He was a dull fourth in the Wood Memorial S. (G1), and we question whether he has the necessary class to make an impact here. YAWANNA TWIST (Yonaguska) was second in the Illinois Derby (G3) and Gotham S. (G3) in his last two starts, but we question whether he would have been competitive had he made the field at Churchill Downs. He has upside with only four starts behind him, but not so much that we think he can upset the top contenders. CARACORTADO (Cat Dreams) has won over dirt and was a leading contender in the Derby trials out in California. His trip in the Santa Anita Derby was reportedly just as bad as Lookin at Lucky's, so he can be forgiven that run. Still, it's hard to get a strong read on his synthetic form and how that will translate on dirt. AIKENITE (Yes It's True) remains eligible for a first-level allowance and appeared to appreciate a return to one-turn racing when second in the Derby Trial. Given his speed-laden pedigree, we think 9 1/2 furlongs is too far for him against this company. NORTHERN GIANT's (Giant's Causeway) subpar effort in the Arkansas Derby is probably a toss, but his prior form in softer classic preps doesn't stand out. He's likely the longest shot on the board for Team Lukas.
 Send this article to a friend
|
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
