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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS MAY 25, 2012 by Dick Powell I guess when you miss the $32.60 mutuel in the Kentucky Derby and the $8.40 in the Preakness Stakes, there's no sense taking a low price on I'll Have Another when he goes for the Triple Crown in two weeks. I have underestimated this horse all year and have been wrong all year. But now, do I want to be right at low odds and ride the tide to the Belmont Stakes or do I continue to tilt at windmills and try to beat I'll Have Another again? Pari-mutuelly speaking, it's an easy to answer as my hands are now tied and I have to go against him. In the 1970s, we had three Triple Crown winners and I was at the Belmont Stakes for all of them. I can't remember how many of the handicappers in the New York newspapers went against Secretariat for his attempt at becoming the first Triple Crown winner in 25 years. Granted, the field was terrible and the only knocks on Secretariat's chances were the presence of the gallant Sham, who chased him hard in the first two legs, and that a son of Bold Ruler could never win going 1 1/2 miles. None of it mattered as the public sent Big Red off as the prohibitive favorite at 10 cents on the dollar and it was worth it to see him "moving like a tremendous machine." I have heard a lot of people say they were there that day but have never heard anyone say they cashed a ticket. Seeing him win the Belmont was priceless and something so memorable it has grown in stature over the years. When Seattle Slew came along in 1977, there wasn't much left for the Belmont in terms of competition. Only one other horse came out of the Preakness to face him, Run Dusty Run, and there was no groundswell about Slew being vulnerable. The Belmont that year was contested on a deep, muddy track and Slew, the 2-5 favorite, dominated on the front end. The 1978 Belmont Stakes was different, though, from the other two. As super as Affirmed looked winning the Derby and Preakness, every Alydar fan felt that the Belmont would be the race when he finally got by his tenacious archrival. Affirmed went off at 3-5 and Alydar was just over even money at 11-10. They hooked up in an epic duel for the last mile that left me hoarse for days. Alydar might have had a nose in front after turning for home but Affirmed surged back on the inside when Steve Cauthen went to a left-hand whip to win by a head. To show you how much the game has changed, there was no exacta wagering that day. According to the official charts that are in the New York Racing Association's media guide, exacta wagering first showed up in the Belmont in 1984. So only one of the three most recent Triple Crown-clinching Belmont Stakes was competitive betting wise. If any public handicapper went against Affirmed, it was perfectly understandable. But, I still wonder if there was someone back then who picked against Secretariat and/or Seattle Slew? I'll Have Another became the 12th horse since 1978 to win the first two legs of the elusive Triple Crown. He did it the same way that he won the Derby -- he used his tactical speed to gain the position that Mario Gutierrez wanted, cruised along without expending too much energy, and closed relentlessly to run down a loose-on-an-easy lead Bodemeister. He now goes on to the Belmont with the right running style and pedigree to do what the last 11 could not. Waiting for him are Union Rags, Dullahan and the amazing Paynter, who won on the Preakness undercard. Bodemeister and Creative Cause are skipping the Belmont as reality has set in for them and I'll Have Another is on the verge of winning the war of attrition. Paynter will represent an unusual challenge as he prepped for the Belmont in an allowance race on the Preakness undercard. Over the weekend, he was the only horse who went gate-to-wire on the main track going two turns and his 5 3/4-length victory going 1 1/16 miles earned him an enormous BRIS Speed rating of 107, two points lower than I'll Have Another's 109 earned in the Preakness. Coupled with his 105 earned when second in the Grade 3 Derby Trial going a mile, Paynter comes into the Belmont in great form, and with only four starts in his career, he still should have an upside as the others are just looking to maintain their form. Besides strong tactical speed, Paynter has an amazing pedigree. His sire, Awesome Again, won the Breeders' Cup Classic going 1 1/4 miles and his dam is a full sister to Tiznow, who is the only horse to win consecutive runnings of the Classic. Can't get much better than that going long on the main track. Throw in Bob Baffert's training and Mike Smith riding in career-best form and you have a potent combination for the Belmont. Bet the Belmont Stakes at TwinSpires.com
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