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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS JANUARY 6, 2006 by Dick Powell Happy Birthday to all the two-year-olds of last year who are now three-year-olds as of January 1. And that means that this year’s crop of three-year-olds needs to be examined to determine who the major contenders will be for this year’s Triple Crown. The best tool to have is the "Ky Derby Winter Book" from Brisnet.com. The ultimate past performances for more than 200 newly-turned three-year-olds are listed in alphabetical order, not only helping you get a head start on this year's Triple Crown, but also serving as a valuable reference guide. It will especially come in handy when three-year-olds begin competing against each other and you are looking back in past performance lines to gain some familiarity with the horses in the race. If you use BRIS' Prime Power ratings, FIRST SAMURAI (Giant’s Causeway) was the top rated two-year-old with a Prime Power figure of 160.5 Far behind are likely juvenile champion STEVIE WONDERBOY (Stephen Got Even) and HENNY HUGHES (Hennessy), both listed at 152.4. Speedball IN SUMMATION (Put In Back) is fourth at 150.7, and BROTHER DEREK (Benchmark) fills out the top five at 148.7. First Samurai disappointed in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), finishing a dull third behind Stevie Wonderboy with first-time Lasix, but his prior efforts were sensational and he gave every indication that 10 furlongs on the first Saturday in May should be no problem with his terrific pedigree. Stevie Wonderboy lost his first two starts going short but then reeled off three straight wins, including a devastating win in the Juvenile. The final time was sensational and he looked great doing it. He's become a one-dimensional closer as the races have stretched out but broke his maiden in a fast time at Del Mar going 6 1/2 furlongs by sitting just off the early pace. The chestnut will give his rider a lot of options and, pedigree wise, he can go all day. Frank Brothers, trainer of First Samurai, and Doug O’Neill, trainer of Stevie Wonderboy, will probably take the path of least resistance, running only two or three times before May 6. It may not equal Biggie versus Tupac, but it should be fun when the East Coast rival takes on his West Coast counterpart this spring. Henny Hughes is going to be a tough one for new owner Godolphin to figure out. He has a dosage index of 7.0, so 10 furlongs on the first Saturday in May appears out of his range. He's fast and brilliant and is now wintering in Dubai. We could see him on February 10 in the UAE Two Thousand Guineas (UAE-G3) going a mile at Nad al Sheba Racecourse, with his ultimate goal in the desert being the UAE Derby (UAE-G2) at 1 1/8 miles on March 25. If Henny Hughes' pedigree catches up to him, it might be tempting to send him to England for the English Two Thousand Guineas (Eng-G1) at Newmarket going a straight mile to try to enhance his future stud career. As talented as he is, the chestnut just doesn’t give the impression that he'll be a classic contender over here. In Summation won his first five starts last year at Calder before missing in the In Reality division of the Florida Stallion S. when he was caught by a nose in the last jump going two turns for the first time. He's bred for speed top and bottom but relaxed nicely in his lone route attempt. Cagey veteran trainer Frank Gomez will have the task of stretching him out this year, but there's a lot of money available to him at Gulfstream before he has to try going long. Fifth-rated Brother Derek has prospered in his three route races, including a win in the Hollywood Futurity (G1) last out. If you want to be a snob and ignore him because he's a Cal-bred, you probably ripped up a lot of tickets when New York-bred Funny Cide (Distorted Humor) won the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Pennsylvania-bred Smarty Jones did it a year later. Of the others, BLUEGRASS CAT (Storm Cat) has won his last three starts, including stellar victories in the Nashua (G3) and Remsen (G2). In the Nashua, he sat off a demanding pace and drew off to a courageous win then went gate-to-wire in the Remsen. My problem with him will be to avoid falling in love with him and his fantastic pedigree -- by Storm Cat out of an A.P. Indy mare who is a full sister to graded winners Accelerator and Daydreaming. With stamina on his dam's side and speed on the sire end, Bluegrass Cat fits the bill of many recent Kentucky Derby winners and, coming out of the Todd Pletcher barn, bears watching. My sleeper choice for 2006 is MUSIC SCHOOL (A.P. Indy). An impressive debut winner back in June at Churchill going 5 1/2 furlongs in fast time for Neil Howard, he's been on the sidelines since then but is now back in training. After a very rough start, where he went to his knees and almost unseated Robby Albarado, he recovered nicely to contest the pace, take over turning for home and hold off a late challenge. Music School's pedigree screams classic success. His second dam, Prospectors Delite (Mr. Prospector) won the Ashland S. (G1), the Acorn S. (G1) and the Fair Grounds Oaks (G3). She was bred to A.P. Indy in her first season as a broodmare and immediately produced Tomisue's Delight, who won $1.2 million on the track with major wins in the Ruffian H. (G1) at three and Personal Ensign H. (G1) at four. In her second season as a broodmare, Prospectors Delite was bred to Dixieland Band and produced Delta Music, the dam of Music School. Delta Music won seven races, including the Straight Deal Breeders’ Cup H. After being barren for a year, Prospectors Delite was bred to Danzig and produced Monashee Mountain, who after being sold as a yearling for $1 million won the Tetrarch S. (Ire-G3) in Ireland at three. Her next foal was Rock Slide, who earned more than $440,000 while taking the Tenacious H. at Fair Grounds and the Sea O'Erin Breeders' Cup Mile H. on the turf at Arlington. With four stakes winners from her first four foals, Prospectors Delite made it five for five when she dropped the 2003 Horse of the Year, Mineshaft, winner of four Grade 1 stakes that year for breeder Lanes End Farm. The one year that Prospectors Delite was not bred to A.P. Indy, she produced Delta Music. Lane's End then bred her foal to A.P. Indy and the result was Music School. Put him in your stable mail and follow his return to the races. What he gives up in experience he more than makes up for with his pedigree. ***** Many turf writers are bemoaning the 2005 racing season and its lack of lasting star power. However, you have to qualify it as North American racing might have had an off season because racing around the world was sensational last year. In Asia, we got to see SILENT WITNESS (El Moxie) win his first 17 races in Hong Kong. He ended his season last spring when he went to Japan and was beaten twice trying to go a mile. Owner Archie DaSilva and trainer Tony Cruz showed a lot of class when they went right back to Japan this fall to win a Group 1 sprint for Silent Witness's 18th win in 20 starts. HURRICANE RUN (Montjeu [Ire]) rallied up the rail under a gutsy Kieren Fallon to win the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1) at Longchamp in France, and could be the first repeat winner of Europe's biggest race since Alleged (1977-78) if all goes well this year. Hurricane Run beat a deep and talented field in the Arc, leaving eventual Breeders' Cup Turf (G1) winner Shirocco (Ger) (Monsun) in his wake. DEEP IMPACT (Sunday Silence) won the Japanese Triple Crown while undefeated and sparked a rejuvenation of racing in Japan. He went down to defeat in the Arima Kinen S. (Jpn-G1) on Christmas Day when he faced older horses, losing a tough one to the classy Heart's Cry (Sunday Silence), but drew huge crowds and unimaginable media attention. And finally, when all looks lost and racing here in the States looks like it will never regain its glory years, I just go on my computer and play the Cox Plate (Aus-G1), Australia's premier weight-for-age event. Watching MAKYBE DIVA (Desert King) rally nine wide to win going away against the best males in Oceania is breathtaking. And it wasn't even her best effort as she saved her best for last. After a week of speculation, owner Tony Santic and trainer Lee Freedman announced that Makybe Diva was ready to defend her Melbourne Cup (Aus-G1) crown for a third straight year. Rallying from 20th position with a half-mile to go against a field of 24 going two miles, she split horses and suddenly emerged from the huge pack of stayers and gained racing immortality. The track announcer at Flemington that day called the finish "and a champion becomes a legend." Very well said. You want great racing? It might not be in your backyard, but it's out there if you look for it. Happy New Year and I can't wait to see how 2006 develops.
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