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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS APRIL 26, 2013 by Dick Powell The 139th running of the Kentucky Derby is coming and it's coming fast. Most of the eventual starters are already on the grounds for their final training to be ready to try to do something they have never done before -- run 1 1/4 miles on the main track on the first Saturday of May. Last year, I completely misjudged the depth and quality of the Southern California contingent from the Santa Anita Derby. I decided that the race came up light with the best one from the area, Bodemeister, shipping to Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby. When the blanket finish on the wire saw I'll Have Another and Creative Cause less than a length ahead of the Bob Baffert rabbit Blueskiesnrainbows, I discounted their talent and didn't feel they were good enough. Wrong! I'll have Another ran down Bodemeister in the deep stretch and Creative Cause faded to fifth at the wire after being in third to the final furlong. The Southern California contingent was much better in terms of talent and ability to get the distance. In 2012, I liked Take Charge Indy to win the Kentucky Derby based on his strong win in the Florida Derby. In last year's Derby, he was sitting in perfect position down the backside going into the far turn and I was very confident in my chances with a half-mile to go. Saving ground around the far turn, he suddenly slowed down dramatically and Calvin Borel had to ease him as he suffered a leg fracture. I picked Bodemeister to finish second, which he did, but it's hard to make money when your key horse is out of the money. This year, the Southern California contingent looks strong even though Baffert does not have the usual armada in place. Doug O'Neill is back again with Goldencents, winner of the Delta Jackpot, Sham Stakes and Santa Anita Derby, the latter which he won in very fast time and earned one of the better BRIS Speed ratings. He relaxed last time and finished better than he ever has so it now looks like 10 furlongs is within his scope. A negative for Goldencents is that his last-race BRIS Speed rating of 106 is nine points higher than his previous best and he might not have the right pattern to run it back or improve off of it. None of his previous two-turn races showed that a 106 was on the horizon so was it a one-shot, a fluke performance or a legitimate sign that he is learning his lessons and will run back to it? Based on O'Neill's performance with I'll Have Another last year, it seems that when he gets his horses to a certain level, they tend to stay there. Todd Pletcher looks especially strong this year with at least five starters in the starting gate. Heading the group is Verrazano, who goes to Kentucky undefeated in four career starts this year. After running very fast in his first two starts, he slowed things down in his two-turn debut, the Tampa Bay Derby, and was able to win despite a slow pace then came back in the Wood Memorial and ran just fast enough to win as he showed an ability to switch off and switch back on when the rider needs a response. His final time that day was a bit average but considering how slow the pace was (-15, -13), it was better than it looks. Revolutionary showed great promise while still a maiden but exploded when asked to go two turns. He has shown ability to race in traffic and either go inside or outside of horses. In a 20-horse field, he has proven that he can make his own trip. The Derby distance should not be problem with his dam being a Grade 1 stakes winner at 1 1/4 miles. The best of the rest of Pletcher's contingent seems to be Palace Malice, who always seems to be in the running late. He'll be in midpack, which is where the most traffic problems will occur, but he gives the impression that he'll keep on running no matter the distance. If you are going to be successful with this year's Derby, you are going to have to answer the question: "Just how good is Orb?" He's won his last four starts, the last three after Lasix was added. He closes relentlessly and has had a dream preparation this year for Shug McGaughey. I have my doubts and even predicted that he would not run in the Derby but so far it looks like I'm wrong. Orb has some emotional issues and gets very hot before the race. How he will handle the Derby crowd and the long time they are out of their stall before the race will be anyone's guess. He reminds me of Blame in that he seems to run over anything and has shown he can handle slow or fast paces. His Speed ratings are average and Johnny Velazquez decided to get off to ride Verrazano so Orb picks up the red-hot Joel Rosario. Orb will be the first or second choice in the wagering and I'm tempted to toss him completely out of the mix. With his running style, he'll probably have to go wide and he has yet to show the ability to quicken like some of these have. A longshot I will take a long look at is Lines of Battle. He won the U.A.E. Derby in Dubai on the Tapeta but actually ran quite well in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf when he was stuck wide from post 14 and was beaten only six lengths. He seems to be bomb-proof as far as his temperament goes and one of these days, Coolmore is going to send the right horse over year and gets the job done. He has a big, American dirt pedigree and should be a juicy price.
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