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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS APRIL 11, 2014 by Dick Powell Two down; two to go. Two major Kentucky Derby prep races run last Saturday; two more scheduled for this Saturday. After the Arkansas Derby is run on Saturday, we will have three weeks to go over what we have seen and get ready for the first Saturday in May. A friend of mine, Paul Cassady from Saratoga Springs, New York, bought into a Centennial Farms syndicate last year. He told me last summer at Saratoga that the horses were doing well and all reports were positive. The best of the lot seemed to be Juba (Tapit), who finished a strong third in his debut and then recorded a terrific second to undefeated Florida Derby winner Constitution (Tapit). He wound up being injured in training and might be back in the fall. The other star of the syndicate was Wicked Strong (Hard Spun), who broke his maiden second time out last year and then was a closing third behind Honor Code (A.P. Indy) and Cairo Prince (Pioneerof The Nile) in the Remsen (G2) going nine furlongs at Aqueduct. Wicked Strong wintered in Florida with trainer Jim Jerkens but seemed to hate the Gulfstream Park main track. Two poor performances were hard to explain and his connections wisely decided to bring him back to the scene of his best effort, Aqueduct's main track for the $1 million TwinSpires.com Wood Memorial. Not only was he returning to a track he loved but the race set up for his closing style as the field was loaded with speed. Despite the two poor recent races, the betting public bet him down to 9-to-1 odds and boy, were they right. Social Inclusion (Pioneerof The Nile) was the talking horse coming into the Wood after beating Honor Code by 10 lengths in fast time at Gulfstream Park last out. His owner talked about multi-millionaire offers that he has turned down for the horse and said we would see the real deal on Saturday. Unfortunately for Social Inclusion, he handled the pre-race commotion as bad as you can and went to the starting gate soaking wet. He broke slow and had to be rushed up wide around the clubhouse turn to gain position through modest fractions of :23.79, :47.47 and 1:11.16. He put away early leader Schivarelli (Montbrook) around the far turn and despite the early energy he wasted before the race, looked like he might pull it off. Undefeated Samraat (Noble Causeway) made a run at him nearing the top of the stretch but Social Inclusion repelled that move and had a clear lead with a furlong to go. Wicked Strong raced closer to the pace while saving ground with Rajiv Maragh. They swung to the outside around the far turn but for a few strides, it looked like he was spinning his wheels and not going anywhere. Finally, when they straightened away, he began to close the gap on Social Inclusion and despite weaving in and out, blew by him to win going away by 3 1/2 lengths in the final time of 1:49.31. With a career-best BRIS Speed rating of 89 going into the race, Wicked Strong's 103 figure on Saturday might set him up for a poor effort next time out. I will caution that any development he might have shown this winter was stunted by him not liking the Gulfstream main track but it is still a big jump up. At the wire, Samraat was able to nose out Social Inclusion for the place and that narrow margin might keep Social Inclusion out of the Derby. Clearly, his sales price has dropped dramatically but at least he showed that he can be a productive member of this year's three-year-old crop. Besides rooting for my friend's horse, what I loved about Wicked Strong's win in the Wood was how low he gets when he stretches out. He had his hind end up underneath himself and was able to push off with power. This was not the horse that ran in Florida and while it is a negative that he is not able to carry his race around with him on any surface, he showed that he has an "A" game that can compete with the best. Who is to say that he doesn't have another move forward in him? I watched California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit) win the Santa Anita Derby and I have to try to tamp down my enthusiasm for his race. There have been many fast horses on fast tracks that have run fast but this seemed different. He was able to overcome a clumsy beginning and gain position going into the clubhouse turn and raced between horses for much of the backstretch. Without any visible urgency from Victor Espinoza, California Chrome began to separate from the field nearing the top of the stretch. All this time, Espinoza was riding high in the saddle and California Chrome gave the visual impression that he was doing this easily. The chestnut opened up a huge lead in the stretch and cruised home to win by 5 1/2 lengths in the racehorse time of 1:47.52 for the nine furlongs. His BRIS Speed rating was a career-best 106 and coming on top of his 102 in the San Felipe Stakes (G2), it sets him up for a big effort in four weeks. It wasn't how fast he ran but how he did it. If he opened up five lengths out of the gate and won gate to wire, I would be less impressed but he never looked like he was being urged along at all. Talk about cruising speed. Going into the Derby, California Chrome has already shown that he can use his speed to gain position, relax when his rider instructs him to and finish with energy. His BRIS Pace figures from Saturday of 103, 110 and 97 shows that he can maintain his speed for a long distance and will be a major factor, if not the favorite, for this year's Run for the Roses. I don't know what to make about this Saturday's Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland other than it attracted a field of 14 with an also eligible. Don't know if it will unearth a clear Derby contender but it will be a great race to bet on. One horse that I will be interested in is Extrasexyhippzster (Stroll) who is 15-to-1 on the morning line. He won a six-furlong stakes on a wet inner-dirt track at Aqueduct and went back to Laurel where he captured a one-turn mile stakes in good time. The colt lost all chance in his two-turn debut when he broke poorly in the Gotham Stakes (G3) and could not make up any ground. Now, he tries two turns in his synthetic track debut but he does it from an inside post and other than his last start, has shown good speed away from the gate. He is by Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (G1) winner Stroll, whose family was primarily turf, and is out of a dam by Giant Causeway's full brother Freud that won a stakes race on the synthetic at Presque Isle Downs. It looks like Bobby's Kitten (Kitten's Joy) will go to the front and Extrasexyhippzster could get a nice trip in behind him. At juicy odds, I can't resist. The Arkansas Derby wraps up the major Derby prep races late on Saturday before an expected crowd of more than 60,000 at Oaklawn Park. Even though the race is a rematch of the bumper car exhibition of the Rebel Stakes (G2), the ultra-talented Bayern (Offlee Wild) will probably go off as the favorite for Bob Baffert. He broke his maiden first time out going seven furlongs in decent time then he stretched out to a mile last out and won by 15 lengths over Tap It Rich (Tapit). Bayern earned a BRIS Speed rating of 99 and now returns off 58 days of rest for Baffert. I remember a few years ago when Baffert shipped Bodemeister to the Arkansas Derby. At the time, he had not earned his way into the Derby and someone asked Baffert if he was worried about not getting. Baffert cracked up laughing and after Bodemeister won by 9 1/2 lengths, clearly Baffert had nothing to worry about. Now, he shows up this year with Bayern having no Derby eligibility points but I doubt if Baffert is too worried. Bayern has trained brilliantly for this and can't wait to see Andy Harrington's workout report to see what he has to say about the 1:23 and change seven-furlong workout last weekend.
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