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BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE (G1), 8TH-SA, $2,000,000, 2YO, C/G, 1 1/16M, 5:43PM, 11-1
by James Scully Fifteen of the last 18 Breeders' Cup Juvenile winners were named champion two-year-old male and the 1 1/16-mile race often determines the winter-book Kentucky Derby favorite. Morning-line choice American Pharoah was withdrawn Tuesday due to a foot bruise, but an exciting field of 12 remains. 1ST -- CARPE DIEM impressed when recording making his two-turn debut in the Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland, posting a widening 6 1/4-length decision, and the son of Giant's Causeway displayed a new dimension rating just off the early pace. The Todd Pletcher trainee captured his first start, a 5 1/2-furlong sprint at Saratoga, in wire-to-wire fashion. His acceleration was eye-catching and Carpe Diem registered an excellent 100 BRIS Speed rating last time. He figures to put his tactical speed to good use in this spot, dropping in behind the first flight of runners in midpack during the early stages, and a hot pace seems certain. That should play favorably for his late kick and Carpe Diem will look to make his move on the far turn. Jockey John Velazquez retains the mount on the promising colt. 2ND -- SOUPER COLOSSAL has been off since late August, but New Year's Day returned from a similar layoff to capture last year's Juvenile and there's plenty to like about Souper Colossal's chances. By top young sire War Front and out of a Kingmambo mare, the Eddie Plesa-trained colt made a seamless transition to two turns last time, scoring easily by 5 1/2 lengths in a Monmouth Park stakes race, and his BRIS Speed numbers have been increasing. The unbeaten colt could prove to be the speed of the speed Saturday with regular rider Paco Lopez, and Souper Colossal appears to be training forwardly at Santa Anita, recording a five-furlong work (:59 2/5) on Monday that impressed onlookers. He's a threat to last a long way. 3RD -- ONE LUCKY DANE dropped his first two starts on Del Mar's Polytrack but discovered his best form when trying the dirt track at Santa Anita, romping home to a 9 1/2-length score at two turns. He covered a lot of ground with his massive strides and One Lucky Dane must be considered a serious Kentucky Derby prospect for Bob Baffert, a three-time winner of the race. The Juvenile won't be easy given the seasoning advantage and talent that some of his rivals possess, but we may not have seen the best of One Lucky Dane either. He should be up close stalking the pace with regular rider Rafael Bejarano and the son of Lookin at Lucky rates as an intriguing upset contender in his first start against winners. OTHERS -- DAREDEVIL will show speed from his outside post and can't be dismissed from consideration, but he'll be making his two-turn debut and first start on a fast track. Will still include him underneath in the exotics. MR. Z is an interesting longshot (20-1 morning line) for the gimmicks. The Malibu Moon colt exits an encouraging second in the Breeders' Futurity for D. Wayne Lukas and has posted some decent BRIS Speed ratings.
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