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INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

DECEMBER 12, 2014

Hong Kong Vase: Flintshire's the one to beat

by Kellie Reilly

Flintshire ought to make the most of his best winning opportunity all year (Hong Kong Jockey Club)
Sunday's about 1 1/2-mile Hong Kong Vase looks like the ideal opportunity for Flintshire to regain the winning thread after a quartet of stellar seconds this year. The Juddmonte Farms homebred is not only the class of the field, but he also gets his preferred quick conditions on a right-handed course.

Indeed, all three of Flintshire's career wins have come going right-handed -- a maiden and the Prix du Lys at Chantilly, and his signature score in the 2013 Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp. Although winless since, the Andre Fabre trainee has performed up to a high level every time he's encountered good or firmer going.

In his seasonal reappearance, Flintshire finished a fine second to a razor-sharp Cirrus des Aigles in the June 7 Coronation Cup. His subpar effort in the June 29 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud is forgettable on account of the rain-softened ground that tends to leave him spinning his wheels. Missing the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes because of a fever, he was not seen again until the September 14 Prix Foy. Flintshire turned in a useful prep for the Arc, rallying for second to the loose-on-the-lead Ruler of the World.

Although deferring to two-time queen Treve in the Arc itself, Flintshire beat all others in another admirable second, his strongest piece of form to date. That made him a logical threat in the November 1 Breeders' Cup Turf at Santa Anita, where he made a bold bid before being outkicked late by Main Sequence.

Flintshire is eligible to feel more at home at Sha Tin, as his traveling head lad Richard Lambert confirms. And if there were any concern about how he's handling all of the travel, the son of Dansili impressed in his drill over the course. Considering that his campaign didn't even begin until June, and resume until September, he's not exactly at the tail end of a protracted season.

Also, note that the Fabre-trained Borgia thrived on an even busier schedule that culminated in a 1999 Vase victory. Unplaced in that year's Arc, she shipped to Gulfstream and finished a close fifth in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf. Borgia even squeezed in a trip to Tokyo, winding up eighth in the Japan Cup, before successfully plundering the Vase. Flintshire's getting off light by comparison.

Flintshire can admittedly be vulnerable to a classy rival with a superior turn of foot, so it wouldn't be the upset of the century if he gets beaten at short odds. It gets trickier to pinpoint the likeliest culprit among horses who don't boast such formlines. Cases can be made, albeit not overwhelming ones, for a few of the others.

Snow Sky hopes to be the first three-year-old male to take the Vase (Hong Kong Jockey Club)
Fellow Juddmonte homebred Snow Sky has a daunting stat against him: no three-year-old male has managed to win the Vase. Even worse, according to the Hong Kong Jockey Club, only one of 18 in this category has even managed to place -- Six Sense, runner-up to Ouija Board in 2005.

But his trainer, Sir Michael Stoute, is not one to tilt at windmills. Juddmonte's Racing Manager Teddy Grimthorpe revealed that Stoute has wanted to point Snow Sky for this race, which makes him a fascinating entry. He has displayed raw talent, along with a few idiosyncrasies. This experience abroad could help him along the learning curve and set him up for a lucrative 2015.

The well-bred Nayef colt has a high cruising speed that enables him to travel conspicuously well in his races. A commanding winner of the May 10 Lingfield Derby Trial, Snow Sky was ruled out of Epsom with a last-minute setback. He resurfaced in the June 20 King Edward VII at Royal Ascot, but raced too close to a hot pace and tired to fourth, the best finish by any of the early chasers. Ridden more patiently in the July 30 Gordon Stakes at Glorious Goodwood, he rolled to the lead before veering out as if still green, and scraped home by a neck. The margin could have been bigger if he'd been more professional.

Snow Sky lugged in a bit in deep stretch of the August 20 Great Voltigeur, but it didn't matter as he was no match for Luca Cumani's exciting Postponed. Still, Snow Sky was eight lengths clear of third in a fast time for the 1 1/2-mile trip at York.

Having won and placed in two traditional preps for the St Leger, Snow Sky lined up in the world's oldest classic on September 13. He was unwinding in tandem with Kingston Hill when the latter cut across his path, interfered with him, and caused him to lose momentum. Snow Sky recovered for third. In fairness, it's questionable whether he would have challenged Kingston Hill and runner-up Romsdal as they drew clear of the field. The top two were upholding the Epsom Derby form of Australia, and Kingston Hill went on to finish an heroic fourth in the Arc from post 20.

Snow Sky has not raced since the extended 1 3/4-mile St Leger. He's likely to appreciate reverting in trip, and he gets a five-pound break in the weights. A physically and mentally improving Snow Sky might be readier than I'm giving him credit for right now.

Defending champion Dominant and 2012 winner Red Cadeaux (far left, red cap in fourth) are back again (Hong Kong Jockey Club)
The Juddmonte pair will clash with two past Vase winners, Red Cadeaux (2012) and Hong Kong's own Dominant (2013).

The evergreen eight-year-old Red Cadeaux just finished runner-up in the November 4 Melbourne Cup for an incredible third time. Ed Dunlop's lovable globetrotter has yet to run a bad race at Sha Tin, a dead-heat third in the 2011 Vase preceding his victory, and he was an honorable fourth here last year after an unfavorably wide trip. Hong Kong's trackwork video reveals that Red Cadeaux remains fresh as ever, pulling his rider's arms out of their sockets with the eagerness of a youngster brimming with enthusiasm for the game. It almost makes me forget that he hasn't won since the 2012 Vase, and needs a longer trip these days.

Dominant seeks to become the third horse to repeat in the Vase, following Luso (1996-97) and Doctor Dino (2007-08). I wouldn't have given him a chance last year, for lucid reasons: the only Hong Kong runner to prevail in the Vase was the legendary Indigenous (1998); Dominant couldn't even win the big 1 1/2-mile test for the locals in May, the Champions & Chater Cup, and his prep runs were uninspiring; and most of all, the presence of The Fugue, who like Flintshire was exiting BC Turf heartbreak.

As it transpired, The Fugue suffered yet another of her maddening trips, getting shuffled back at the crucial point, and rallying too late. Full credit to Dominant for taking advantage, and for coming right back to finish a good-looking fifth to Gentildonna and Cirrus des Aigles in the March 29 Dubai Sheema Classic.

A similar pattern could be unfolding for this year's Vase: Dominant has once again failed in the Champions & Chater and in his fall preps. He's turned the corner in training just in time to face another BC Turf runner-up. But I can't bring myself to envision him as a two-time Vase winner; once was enough.

Empoli overcame traffic trouble to win his first Group 1 last out in his native Germany (Hong Kong Jockey Club)
Germany's Empoli edged Dominant when fourth in the Sheema, an effort that was positively heroic after he was nearly eliminated by the ill-fated Mars. Empoli was slammed so hard on the clubhouse turn that he did well to get back into stride quickly, and jockey Adrie de Vries did even better to stay in the saddle. Down the Meydan homestretch, Empoli appeared to be overtaken by Dominant, but he came again determinedly to snatch fourth.

The Peter Schiergen colt didn't run up to that level in England or France. Last time in the September 28 Preis von Europa at Cologne, Empoli was hemmed in full of run on the rail, extricated himself adroitly, and swooped for a Group 1 breakthrough. He's got to improve off the literal form. The good news is, being by Halling and out of an Acatenango mare, the four-year-old is probably still capable of more.

The Hong Kong horse I find most persuasive in the Vase is Willie Cazals, who comes from a tactically impossible place in the clouds but can hurl sub-22 final quarters. For the record, I'll mention that in his former Italian career, he beat Danedream when second in the 2011 Derby Italiano. Of course, that's before Danedream was Danedream.

Willie Cazals was a stayer on the rise for Tony Cruz in the spring of 2013, missing by a nostril to Dominant in the Queen Mother Memorial and finishing second to California Memory in the Champions & Chater (in the process turning the tables on Dominant back in third). Unfortunately, he sustained a tendon injury while preparing for last year's Vase, and the gray -- a bit brighter than he used to be -- has been steadily racing his way back into form.

The Aussie Rules gelding came up just short against the promising Packing Llaregyb in the November 11 Sa Sa Ladies' Purse over an inadequate about 1 1/8 miles. Aside from spotting his up-and-coming rival nine pounds, Willie Cazals was also floated wider out down the straight, and had to alter course around a couple of drifting foes and angle back in to confront the winner. His diagonal running amounted to much more than the short head margin. Up in class and trip for the November 23 Jockey Club Cup -- the prep for the Hong Kong Cup -- Willie Cazals did his best work late for seventh, beaten all of a couple of lengths by the victorious Blazing Speed.

Willie Cazals could give Tony Cruz, the HKIR's all-time winning trainer, his first score in the Vase (Hong Kong Jockey Club)
If Willie Cazals can spring an upset, he'll complete Cruz's collection of Hong Kong International Races. Cruz is the HKIR's all-time leading trainer with six wins (two apiece in the Sprint, Mile and Cup), and the Vase is the only trophy missing from the cabinet.

Although Japan's representatives must always be respected, Curren Mirotic is a lesser light in their firmament. Yet the early pace factor/stalker has been boxing on dourly over shorter, and his second to Gold Ship in the about 1 3/8-mile Takarazuka Kinen last out June 29 implies that he might be more suited to this distance.

Rounding out the international squad is Ireland's Parish Hall, whom I might more readily ignore if he weren't a Jim Bolger product. The son of Teofilo scored an improbable win in the 2011 Dewhurst, propelling himself into the classics picture, but then contracted a hind leg infection that cost him his entire 2012 season. Parish Hall has been a genuine servant since his comeback, even if he was a tad fortunate to come as close as a neck to Magician in the May 5 Mooresbridge and to well-regarded Pether's Moon in the October 4 Cumberland Lodge in his latest. He'll show up with his game face on, and it would be especially touching if he can run well, after Bolger's loss of another son of Teofilo, Trading Leather, in the Japan Cup.

Additional thoughts on the Vase will be posted on the TwinSpires.com blog Saturday.


 

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