|
|
HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS FEBRUARY 13, 2015 by Dick Powell The San Antonio S. (G2) at Santa Anita lived up to its advance billing at the top of the stretch with California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit) on the lead and Shared Belief (Candy Ride) bearing down. "Here is the race we have been waiting for!" exclaimed track announcer Trevor Denman as they straightened out with California Chrome a length in front with Shared Belief on the outside. At one point, it looked like California Chrome was going to maintain his length advantage but with some left-handed encouragement from Mike Smith at the eighth-pole, Shared Belief surged up alongside and then asserted himself to a 1 1/2-length victory that was more decisive than the final margin indicates. Shared Belief had two advantages over his rival. First, he had a win in the seven-furlong Malibu S. (G1) to set him up perfectly for the San Antonio. California Chrome had not run since winning the Hollywood Derby (G1) in his turf debut at Del Mar 70 days ago when he hardly had to exert himself. Next time they meet, the result might be the same but I expect California Chrome to put up a better fight. The second advantage that Shared Belief had on Saturday was the conditioning he gets from training on the Tapeta at Golden Gate Fields. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer is able to put more work into him without the normal wear and tear that he would have to endure if he were training on a dirt track. California Chrome will go on to Meydan for the Dubai World Cup (UAE-G1) and Shared Belief might show up in the Santa Anita H. (G1) next out. I can't see them facing each other again until the Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar, which will be run on dirt this year just like the Dubai World Cup will be. *** Speaking of Golden Gate Fields, the Golden Pick 6 carryover has grown to over $200K and it is performing exactly like Gulfstream Park's Rainbow Pick 6 does. Case in point was last weekend where we saw multiple winners of the Golden Pick 6 pay way more than expected. On Saturday, the six races of the Golden Pick 6 had fields of six, seven, eight, eight, six and nine. The winning mutuel prices were $3.80, $7.40, $10, $7, $9.80 and $6.40. The parlay for the 20 cent wager was $192.90. It paid $1,339.04 -- almost seven times the parlay. What we found when the Rainbow 6 began at Gulfstream was that despite the criticism of its takeout, once the carryover hits a serious level, it attracts money that is trying to take down the entire pool as the single winner. This money becomes similar to losing money from a regular Pick 6 carryover resulting in generous payoffs even though you are not the single winner. On Sunday, the six races of the Golden Pick 6 had fields of six, seven, seven, six, five and six. The winning mutuel prices were $32.40, $6.80, $11.20, $6.80, $11.60 and $6.40. The parlay for the 20 cent wager was $1,946.43. It paid $10,176.52 -- over five times the parlay. What the Golden Pick 6 offers for the small player that the Gulfstream Rainbow 6 does not is small fields. With a modest bankroll, you can cover a decent amount of the available combinations but still take advantage of the generous payoffs. At Gulfstream, when there might be three turf races in the six-race sequence with huge fields, it forces you to go deeper than you might want to or live and die with a couple of singles. *** The Aqueduct inner dirt track has seen some dramatic changes as it dried out with the cold snap that is gripping the Northeast. What had been a speed-favoring surface has evolved into a closer's track and we saw it again on Saturday. In the Toboggan S. (G3) it looked like speed would be hard to catch after the first two races on the card were won by front runners. In the Toboggan, Green Gratto (Here's Zealous) was a program scratch, which left Dads Caps (Discreet Cat) as the dangerous, lone speed. Last April, Dads Caps benefited from similar circumstances and won the Carter H. (G1) and it looked like he would do it again. Gunned to the front by Jose Ortiz, Dads Caps opened up a commanding four-length lead turning for home and still maintained that margin with a furlong to go. But, impossibly, Salutos Amigos (Salute the Sarge) was cutting into the margin with alarming speed. He was fourth at the top of the stretch but under Irad Ortiz Jr., he was making up ground on Dads Caps like he jumped in at the quarter-pole. Usually, when the leader in a sprint can run the final quarter in :24 and change with a big lead, they are home free. But Salutos Amigos ran his final quarter mile in :23.23 and he earned a BRIS Speed rating of 105. After the race, trainer David Jacobson indicated he would come right back in the General George S. (G2) at Laurel Park going seven furlongs on Monday, February 16, and would not rule out a trip to Dubai for the $2 million Golden Shaheen (UAE=G1) on the Dubai World Cup card at the end of March.
 Send this article to a friend
|
|
