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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS MARCH 6, 2015 by Dick Powell Three Kentucky Derby (G1) prep races will be held this Saturday as the clock ticks towards the first Saturday of May. At 4:50 p.m. (ET), the $400,000 Gotham Stakes (G3) will be run on the inner dirt track at Aqueduct. Then, at 5:23 p.m., the $350,000 Tampa Bay Derby (G2) will be run at Tampa Bay Downs and at 6 p.m., the $400,000 San Felipe Stakes (G2) will be run at Santa Anita. All three races will be run at 1 1/16 miles around two turns and all three will award 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the winner, 20 points to the second-place finisher, 10 points to the third-place finisher and 5 points to the fourth-place finisher. In the Gotham, a field of 10 has been assembled and three of them will run coupled as a Todd Pletcher-trained entry. El Kabeir (Scat Daddy) is the 8-to-5 favorite and rightfully so. He won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) at Churchill last November then came back here and won the Jerome Stakes (G3) by more than four lengths. Last out, El Kabeir battled for the lead in the Withers and weakened late when Far From Over (Blame) blew by the field. He picks up one pound here and as the only stakes winner in the field, he has to concede seven pounds to his nine rivals. I was surprised that he gave up the lead as easily as he did in the Withers and am concerned that he could be on the downside while representing little pari-mutuel value. The horse that I think can pull off the upset here is Tencendur (Warrior's Reward). He showed in the Withers that he can compete with these but when the running got serious, he refused to change leads. Since then, blinkers have been added and the results have been spectacular; a fastest of 99 half-mile breeze on February 21 and a fastest of 35 five-furlong breeze on March 1. Cornelio Velasquez worked him in both starts and is back aboard on Saturday. Tencendur is by a hot sire and his female family has been heating up. He is a half-brother to Mother Russia (Mayakovsky), who won six stakes races and more than $528K. She has produced Golden Barrows (Tapit), a Japan stakes winner and one of their leading three-year-olds, and her two-year-old by Kitten's Joy was an RNA for $390,000 at the Fasig-Tipton sale on Wednesday. What I like about Tencendur is his cruising speed and if the blinkers are working as well as it looks like they are in the morning, he will run much better in the stretch. He's 8-to-1 in the morning line and worth the price. The Tampa Bay Derby came up especially strong with nine three-year-olds entered. Last year, Carpe Diem (Giant's Causeway) won the Breeders' Futurity (G1) in his second career start and went to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) as the favorite. He experienced a nightmare trip that day finishing second and returns for his three-year-old debut off a series of strong workouts for Todd Pletcher at Palm Beach Downs. Ocean Knight (Curlin) broke his maiden first time out going six furlongs on the inner dirt track at Aqueduct then shipped down to Tampa Bay and won the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) going two turns. He was originally going to go back to New York for the Gotham but his connections called an audible and will go in the Tampa Bay Derby. A race over the track should be a big advantage on a surface that can prove quirky. The rest of the field seems evenly matched. Danzig Moon (Malibu Moon) broke his maiden last out going a one-turn mile and should have no trouble getting two turns for Mark Casse. He will have to overcome the wide draw with Julien Leparoux. Divining Rod (Tapit) could be the dangerous speed from the rail after almost wiring the Sam F. Davis, especially with Thursday's news that the speedy Super Colossal (War Front) will be scratched due to a fever. Great Stuff (Quality Road) is still a maiden, but he's improved as the races have gotten longer and posseses a devastating late kick. This is his two-turn debut and his young sire was brilliant in these spots. The headliner on Santa Anita's Saturday card is the Santa Anita Handicap (G1) but the San Felipe should not be overlooked. This is the deepest of the Kentucky Derby prep races of the weekend as it has attracted Dortmund (Big Brown), winner of the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) and Robert Lewis Stakes (G2); LORD NELSON (Pulpit), winner of the February 1 San Vicente Stakes (G2) going seven furlongs; and OCHO OCHO OCHO (Street Sense), the unbeaten winner of the $1 million Delta Jackpot (G3). Taking on the trio of graded stakes winners will be the exciting Prospect Park (Tapit), a big colt that took a while to get his act together but broke his maiden two starts back then came right back to beat allowance foes by more than five lengths in a good time. Sir Samson (Smart Strike) broke his maiden going six furlongs second time out and came back with a game third in the San Vicente. Brian Koriner removes blinkers and stretches him out with the right pedigree being by Smart Strike, sire of Curlin, and out of a dam by Malibu Moon, sire of Kentucky Derby winner Orb. With the weeks dwindling to a precious few, some of these horses have to step up their games if they are going to earn enough points for entry in the Derby. The puzzling thing is the presence of Dortmund, who does not need this race. A strong effort could set him back and a poor effort ruins his undefeated record. He has shown tremendous courage in his races but that could backfire in here if he gets challenged, which appears likely to happen. Ocho Ocho Ocho makes his seasonal debut off a 105-day layoff. He won both starts here last year going short in fast time then stretched out to two turns to win the Delta Jackpot. I love his pedigree being by Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense and his third dam is the immortal Personal Ensign. There is plenty of distance genes on the dirt and Mike Smith seems to be doing everything right in the saddle. Take him for the mild upset.
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