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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS MAY 8, 2015 by Dick Powell So what did we learn about American Pharoah (Pioneerof The Nile) from his win in the Kentucky Derby (G1)? Was it good, very good or great? The answer will determine how you handicap next one or two starts. First, let's realize that whatever happened to American Pharoah last fall that cost him a start in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) was way more serious that it was disclosed. He did not make his three-year-old debut until mid-March and was on a tight schedule to be ready for last Saturday. This is not the plan that Bob Baffert wanted but he played the hand that he was dealt masterfully. The Rebel Stakes (G2) gave him a place to begin and the Arkansas Derby (G1), only three weeks before the Derby, gave him enough conditioning without knocking him out. He went to Kentucky and had a brilliant workout the weekend before so Baffert had him as good as he could get him. Training is not always hands-on horsemanship, but the management decisions that need to be made and Baffert batted a thousand. He produced his colt on Saturday in perfect shape and despite breaking from an outside post, American Pharoah was able to race back to his two preps and brilliant workouts. Victor Espinoza is a flawless rider that is not intimidated by the big moments. Last year, I picked California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit) for second in the Derby since I was afraid what would happen if he broke a step slow. But with Espinoza, there was nothing to worry about and after breaking smartly, he bided his time before blowing the race open at the top of the stretch. This year, the main concern was the draw with American Pharoah originally drawing post 18. Scratches brought him in a little but he was still way outside the other speed horses in the field. I thought it was amazing that he went off at nearly 3-to-1 odds and felt that he represented big value in the race. The horse that I think was overbet was Baffert's undefeated Dortmund (Big Brown) who went off at 43-to-10. At the start, Martin Garcia sent Dortmund to the front while Gary Stevens took up the chase aboard Firing Line (Line of David). Materiality (Afleet Alex) was left at the gate and at one point was 17th in the early going so he was not part of the pace. Espinoza got American Pharoah away well and took up a position three wide going into the clubhouse turn. The Churchill Downs main track was very hard to figure out. It looked like it was not watered for at least 90 minutes before the Derby but people I talked to that were on it said it was surprisingly wet. The running times were relatively slow so the early pace of :23.24 for the first quarter and :47.34 for the first half was sensible. The trio of front-runners was going to dominate the race and it was just a matter of which one was going to get the job done. Espinoza was willing to lose ground to keep American Pharoah relaxed. He bided his time at least four paths off the rail and waited for the far turn to make his move. After six furlongs were covered in 1:11.29, the three leaders tightened up around the far turn. Dortmund maintained his narrow lead, Firing Line pressured him and Espinoza had to ask American Pharoah for run even before they hit the top of the stretch. It was at the quarter-pole that the Derby looked like it was going to change dramatically. Stevens seemed more concerned with American Pharoah to his outside and less with Dortmund to his inside so he went wide turning for home. American Pharoah wound up near the middle of the track at the top of the stretch and was dangerously close to losing his momentum. Essentially, American Pharoah blew the final turn. Part of it was Stevens floating him out but part of it might be the issue that kept him out of the Breeders' Cup. He looked like a ouchy horse with a bad foot that is being protected with some kind of plate, or worse. Espinoza knew that his Derby was slipping away from him and he began a persistent right-hand use of the whip on American Pharoah. The dogfight was on and the three battled past the eighth pole. Dortmund began to weaken and Firing Line eventually began to feel the effects of racing between horses for 10 furlongs. Espinoza's decision to lose ground but relax paid dividends in the deep stretch and he guided American Pharoah, despite a few anxious moments when he and Firing Line brushed, to a hard-earned length victory. Dortmund barely held on for third as Frosted (Tapit) rallied to just miss catching him. American Pharoah covered the 10 furlongs in 2:03.02 and earned a BRIS Speed rating of, 100 which was a step backwards from his Arkansas Derby victory. But the fact to consider is how much ground he lost. According to Trakus, American Pharoah covered 69 feet more than Dortmund and 29 feet more than Firing Line. To put American Pharoah's trip in perspective, this is how it compares to previous winners:
What makes American Pharoah's trip so remarkable is horses that usually race that wide are coming from behind but he was up pressing the pace. It was an enormous effort on his part. Now, we have to see how he comes out of the race. At the moment, the top three finishers are scheduled to meet again in the Preakness Stakes (G1) so the pace scenario could be very similar. The question for American Pharoah is how does he handle another grueling race in two weeks. Baffert had him trained to the minute for the Derby but it sure looked like the foot/ankle was bothering him turning for home. I was always concerned about Firing Line's ability to get 10 furlongs and he will appreciate the shorter distance. Don't know why he raced most of the Churchill Downs stretch on the wrong lead but coming off a six-week rest, he should be super tough in Baltimore. Dortmund weakened in the final furlong but considering how slow the race was, the track may have sapped his energy. What if Pimlico comes up speed-favoring? Will it enable him to carry his speed better? Lots of questions to answer but one thing we know now; American Pharoah was at his best on the first Saturday of May.
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