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HANDICAPPING FEATURE MARCH 29, 2007 Spotting In-Tandem Works can produce winners by Steve Zacks Back in the late 70s when one attended the track he was playing, a first-time starter from a good barn with a good work tab was spotted. The tote board revealed near post-time odds of 40-1. Regarding that as more than worthwhile, a small investment was made. After cashing the $84 ticket, while scanning the next day's PPs, we noticed a first-time starter, a filly from the same barn that had most likely worked in company with the debut winner on several occasions. The prospect of another juicy score loomed. She won for fun too, but alas, everybody knew about this one; she paid a measly $4 and change; no bet was made. There was a lesson to be learned; it has paid dividends from time to time over the ensuing years. When a stable unleashes an impressive first-time winner, it pays to save or memorize the work line and compare it to any forthcoming first-timers from that outfit. Even with trainer stats and pedigree information readily available the pattern still works today, often yielding unexpectedly generous returns. Case # 1 On February 3 and 4 at Gulfstream Park in the 4TH race each day, Helen Pitts sent out a pair of debut winners. The first was Curlin (Smart Strike), a three-year-old colt. The next day's winner was the three-year-old filly Silverinyourpocket (Silver Deputy). Using BRIS Ultimate Past Performances, we learn that Curlin was by 17 percent-debut sire Smart Strike, out of an unraced Deputy Minister mare. The sire's SPI was above 3.0 and the maternal grandsire’s SPI was near 4.0. The mare had two winners from four starters, one of three as a two-year-old. An earlier article in the Handicapper's Edge suggested that these criteria gave him license to run well in his debut. The fact that none of the previous starters had matched par enhanced his chances. Ms. Pitts herself had won with six of 48 debut runners -- a 12 percent success rate according to the BRIS stats. Curlin showed three works in the summer and then had one November work before shipping to Florida. He breezed three furlongs on December 24 and 31, then two quick half-miles on January 6 and 12 -- the latter a bullet. On January 18, he worked six furlongs from the gate in just under 1:13 and his final prep was on January 30, four days before the race, a bullet half-mile in :46.4. The works indicated readiness. He had satisfied three requirements for a first-out play: a gate work, a fast work that showed he could run, and a stamina work indicating that he was for real. The possible flaw was the 12-day gap between the penultimate and final works; however, one might argue that following the six-furlong gate work all he needed was a final tune-up once the race was picked -- and he did get that. Curlin was no secret. He went off as the 2-1 co-favorite. He ran to his works and backing with a stellar effort, winning by 12 3/4 lengths. When reviewing the past performances for the next day's 4TH race, a maiden special weight for sophomore fillies, a few handicappers noticed that a filly had worked in company with Curlin on the 18th, 12th, 6th, 31st and the 24th. Those works made Silverinyourpocket look very likely to put "goldinyourpocket." Following the in-company works with the previous day's impressive winner, she breezed five furlongs in 1:02.3 six days later and then seven days thereafter and four days prior to her race she went an easy half-mile in :52 (This begs the question of whether or not a work was missed on Curlin on January 24 -which would have made his pattern perfect). Silverinyourpocket's pedigree stats were less notable than her stable mate's. Using the BRIS Ultimate Past Performances, she was by Silver Deputy, a 13 percent debut sire and out of a mare who had produced seven winners from seven starters, with 75 percent of them winning at two. The sire's SPI was an acceptable 2.25. Based on the pattern of works and the performance of Curlin, she certainly looked fit, ready and playable. If those works were good enough to beat colts, they should be good enough to beat all but an exceptional filly. Added to the fact that her workmate had destroyed a quality field of colts the previous day; the remaining question was whether or not her post-time odds would be sufficient to allow a play. Of the nine entrants in the race, only three had started previously and none had run to par, again suggesting that a first timer was eligible. There were some well known trainer names in the race with a Pletcher/Sciametta Jr. second-time starter going off as the 6-5 favorite. Well-bred Rusty Arnold and John Ward Jr. first-time starters were sent off as the second and third choices, respectively. Silverinyourpocket was the fourth choice, a surprisingly long 9.5-1 (at least to us) and did not disappoint, stalking the early pace and running down the favorite in the stretch. To further support her case, Silverinyourpocket returned 24 days later to win a preliminary allowance event. Curlin was sold and returned six weeks later in the Rebel S. (G3) at Oaklawn Park under new trainer Steve Asmussen; turning in another good performance to beat a rather weak field (only one graded stakes winner at two) by five lengths. Case # 2 About five weeks later (March 11, 1ST race) at Santa Anita, Bruce Headley unleashed a sophomore filly who lived up to her name with her debut performance: Magnificience (Stormy Atlantic)! Headley can be dangerous at the Santa Anita meet and with first-time starters (14 percent at Santa Anita and 17 percent first-out). This filly had enough precocity in her pedigree (BRIS Ultimate PPs: 13 percent debut sire with a 1.72 SPI, 17 percent debut grandsire with a 5.69 SPI; the dam had produced six winners from seven starters). The works said ready -- at least on the surface. After a slow start and showing some "greenness," Magnificience leveled out and proceeded to blow by her rivals in impressive fashion, winning by six widening lengths. She was sent off as the 9-5 second choice in a field of seven. After a strong tab in late 2006, she took a break but had worked regularly since late January. Amongst her dozen listed preparatory works were bullets in :33.3, :57.2, :46.2, and 1:26.1. Her penultimate work was a 1:12.2 from the gate. Following the recent experience at Gulfstream and the most favorable impression left by Magnificience in the way she won, it was only natural to see if there were any in-tandem works. And it turned out that another Headley trainee was scheduled to debut in the 3RD race the following Thursday in a maiden special weight sprint for Cal-bred sophomore fillies. The filly in question was G. I. Betty (One Man Army), a homebred by a young sire with a 17 percent debut record and a 7.50 SPI; the grandsire stats were less formidable at 2 percent and with a 0.53 SPI. Still it was Headley and he had just won with a debut maiden; this could be part of what Mark Cramer in his excellent work Thoroughbred Cycles called a trainer short cycle. G. I. Betty's printed worktab began in mid-December and was uninterrupted with a final prep six days before her debut: five furlongs in :59.1, the third best of 40 on the Santa Anita work tab. It appears that she had shared her three preceding works with Magnificience, working the same 1:12.2 from the gate on March 1, and breezing a shared 1:01.1 on February 13. On February 21, Magnificience may have outworked G. I. Betty; the latter went in :58.4 while the former went in :57.2. On January 22 and 29, they had both worked in similar styles but at different distances. Betting on horses is not rocket science. The Headley trainee looked to have speed when needed and while she lacked some of the stamina works, she seemed to be well-enough prepared if she was good enough. In the Magnificience race, two of her rivals had exceeded par meaning that she might have a tough task. Possible knocks on those two were the fact that they were returning to the races off strong efforts in 21 days and might not run back to their best. One was showing vulnerability at longer sprint distances and the favorite was off a top and experimenting with blinkers. The speed of some of Magnificience's works indicated that she might just be something special and with the careful Headley, we could forgive the month break in the works. There were a lot of stakes races that weekend and Magnificience's performance was as spectacular as any. In G. I. Betty's race, there was a legitimate odds-on favorite who had bettered par and if she was not back too soon she would be a formidable foe. Considering that G. I. Betty satisfied criteria for a bet on a first-time starter and that this was a state-bred race, she looked more than interesting. Even though her works were not as impressive as her winning stablemate's, there was certainly reason to consider her a play if the odds were right; there was the option of a reverse exacta with the solid-looking favorite as a place bet, if one so opted. Nearing post-time, G. I. Betty was the solid second choice around 5-2, which made her of questionable price and value. She broke tardily as had Magnificience, but the favorite shook loose on the lead setting an honest pace and held sway as G. I. Betty commenced her rally. The Headley charge managed to get up to complete the exacta. If this game were simple and easy, G. I. Betty would have won in a walk. But it is anything but that! While she did not win, she did run well and she did lend support to the idea of paying attention to the work tabs of debut winners can prove to be a source of other live prospects. A $21 return on a $4 investment and a 50 percent win rate should make every player very happy.
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