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HANDICAPPING FEATURE MAY 15, 2007 Pace Handicapping the 2007 Kentucky Derby by Tony Kelzenberg I'm sure most of you heard how the 2007 Kentucky Derby (G1) transpired. The point of this article is to make a plausible case that the EXACT order of the top three finishers (and a cold 200-1 trifecta) could have been taken from the Brisnet.com PPs and a thorough knowledge of pace handicapping, featuring usage of BRIS Late Pace numbers. Pace Handicapping – the basics and the 2007 Kentucky Derby "speed horses" Generally, pace handicapping is determining which horse can get the lead. A more sophisticated analysis will determine if the top speed horses (early leaders) will "run each other ragged," setting up the race for the closers (come-from-behind horses). Let's see how the speed horses in this year's Kentucky Derby stacked up (E2 = second call pace, LP = Late Pace, SPD = BRIS Speed figure).
Kind of a mess, huh? Usually the E2 number will point one to the best early speed horse, but we have three between 111 and 113. How do we determine who was to be the "early leader?" This is where trainer intent comes in. Off a victory in the Lane's End, Larry Jones had Hard Spun (Danzig) work a five-furlong bullet, then a stiff mile on Polytrack (under the whip), then an ultra-brilliant :57 3/5 bullet at Churchill Downs in company, the fastest pre-Derby work since the great Forego worked :57 at Churchill in 1973. It didn't take a psychic to figure out Jones was going to have Hard Spun extremely ready for the Kentucky Derby. As for Nobiz Like Shobiz (Albert the Great) and Stormello (Stormy Atlantic), they both took post positions OUTSIDE Hard Spun, rather than inside posts, implying strongly both trainers were going to try to RATE their horses wide. There didn't figure to be a speed duel. Who were the horses to use? Hard Spun at 10-1 was very useable with his big numbers and solid form in the mornings. Cowtown Cat (Distorted Humor) was a tricky read. He ran a great Speed number (106) at Hawthorne in the Illinois Derby (G2), and his closing fractions were excellent, as evidenced by his huge LP number. He was an outsider, but he was also 18-1, so he was a "use" too, at least on my analysis. How fast will the pace be? The PAR E2 for the Kentucky Derby is 107, and the top three speed horses all could run E2 numbers greater than 111. The pace was going to be FAST. We better take a look at the closers. Pace Handicapping - the 2007 Kentucky Derby "closers"
Three things stand out to me. One, Curlin (Smart Strike), while winning each of his races by "a pole," was fairly ordinary on the numbers, and Tiago (Pleasant Tap) wasn't really competitive. Neither was top in BRIS Late Pace, or BRIS Speed. Add these facts to their combined lack of experience, and neither was a serious win candidate. Two, Street Sense (Street Cry [Ire]) was the "crème de la crème closer" with his sterling Tampa Bay race and known affinity for the CD surface. He was tops on BRIS LP and BRIS Speed. Three, Any Given Saturday (Distorted Humor) appeared to have a chance, given his wide trip in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3). Circular Quay's (Thunder Gulch) Louisiana Derby (G2) was great, but it was eight weeks ago and there was no sharp "Derby Week" workout to predict a return to that form. I didn't use him. I ranked the closers with Street Sense first, Any Given Saturday second and Curlin third. Betting Decisions The 2007 Kentucky Derby figured to have a fast pace, and that meant a closer should win. The BRIS numbers indicated Street Sense was the best closer. If I was right about Larry Jones' methods, Hard Spun was set to put in a monster effort on the front end. Here are my odds estimates on my top five horses:
I may have overrated Any Given Saturday and Cowtown Cat and underrated Curlin. I exacta boxed my top four selections, and I bet Street Sense to win. Curlin, being a late runner, probably was a logical horse to "throw in" for third in the trifectas and on the bottom of the superfectas. Conclusion BRIS Pace ratings can be used to find value in many races and worked very well in the 2007 Kentucky Derby. The pace numbers led straight to the Kentucky Derby exacta and could be used to hit the trifecta.
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