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HANDICAPPING FEATURE JUNE 22, 2007 History Helps by Steve Zacks How often have you wanted to know something that did not appear in the past performances? How often did you know where to go to find the answer? And how often were you able to find exactly the information you wanted? This may be the reason why most winning horse players collect their own information. They want to be able to answer certain questions precisely and immediately. They want a specific type of information that suits their "horse player personality" and is exactly what they need. Some of the information that comes with the past performances provides only part of the answer, or by omission, might even raise additional questions. For example, data may be available for first-time routers and first-time turfers, but not for first-time routers on turf. And the more widespread information, the greater its negative impact on its wager value. When trainer statistics were added to various past performances, the advantage that my own personal database had given on claims and switches was lost. Within a year or two of that information entering the public arena, the average mutuel declined significantly. My particular play focuses on how trainers prepare their winners, and we usually demand certain patterns. Since we believe that a horse only performs to his potential if he is fit enough to do so, it was only natural that we would want more information about the preparation methods of individual trainers. The only way to get very specific information was to gather it oneself. There are significant advantages to having any kind of extra information. It is comforting to know that you have history on your side; after all isn't that why you use the past performances? You can feel more comfortable about betting against the favorite when his preparation did not match his trainer's normal pattern. You can have more confidence betting a horse at lower odds when you know that the trainer has been successful using this work pattern in the past; even more so if he has done it on multiple occasions and with more than one horse. And if the horse you are considering has produced a winning race off a pattern similar to today's, you should have increased confidence. When trainer pattern and horse pattern coincide there is a strong chance that the horse will show up with his "A" race. Experience with this preparation-based approach has given us insights in two specific areas: knowledge of what several trainers do by way of preparing their winners, and a pretty good idea of the type of preparation that goes into many of the winners at the tracks we play. Some trainers have a signal work or pattern of works, some trainers rarely work a horse unless the rules say he has to; many trainers prepare horses differently by age or sex or distance or surface. We rarely focus on the Triple Crown events until the late past performances are out except in the odd year a horse catches our fancy. We were intrigued by Street Sense (Street Cry [Ire]) and Nafzger's approach with him. He had a game plan that made sense and a horse that might just be good enough to carry it off. We knew long in advance what we were looking for and we got it; that was the edge needed to wager on this year’s Kentucky Derby (G1). Good trainers listen to their horses and adapt their general training ideas to suit the particular horse. A lot depends on the current form or condition of the individual horse; an in-form horse should be on a normal routine, and an out-of-form horse might need something special. If you know that a trainer is not doing what he ordinarily does, you might be comfortable playing against that horse. If the trainer is trying something different, and it makes sense to you, then you might want to give him the benefit of the doubt if he has done it before and if the horse is generously priced. Your knowledge of what certain successful trainers do may help you to better understand what other trainers unfamiliar to you are doing. If an unfamiliar trainer is following a pattern similar to what a successful trainer known to you is doing, then you can give their entries a second look with a little more confidence than you otherwise might have had. Of the 20 runners in this year's Derby, only one worked four days before the race and only one worked a very fast five furlongs breezing five days out. Our read on Carl Nafzger is this: look for a good five-furlong work four or five days out with other recent five-furlong works in the pattern. He has used this pattern or a variation thereof numerous times in recent years. His colt's breeze in 1:01 was the finishing touch to the bullet :59 seven days earlier and 11 days before the race. This was, in our opinion, what we were expecting and the perfect set up for Street Sense. You might have noticed that the work four days before the Blue Grass S. (G1) was a dawdling 1:04, which simply said that he was not gearing his horse up for that race. (There are enough Nafzger winners in the database to lose interest when the pre-race work is very slow; so we were not overly interested on that day.) Prior to his winning the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), he had worked an easy four furlongs in 51, three days before the race after working a near best 1:01 only six days before that and nine days out. Prior to his Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) win, he had worked four furlongs two days out and five furlongs seven days earlier, nine days out. These were patterns Nafzger had used for winners before. Nafzger's approach is that his horses are athletes and peak performances come when they are fit and ready. Certainly both trainer and horse doing what they have successfully done in the past are positive signs for today. The trainer is telling you that the horse is ready and is physically able to do what he would like him to do coming to the race. This suggests that a good effort should be in the offing. The horse that really got the attention of the media and the public was Hard Spun (Danzig) with his sparkling work of :57 3/5, breezing, five days out. This had been preceded by a mile in 1:42 2/5 seven days earlier and 12 days out. Many thought that it was too fast a work. Larry Jones is not prominent in our database, but several winners with solid five-furlong works five days out were listed and we thought he knew what he was about. Several reports indicated that Hard Spun had handled the work well enough. Our belief is that if a sophomore is going to run a winning race in the Derby, a fast five furlong breeze five days out should set him up for a big effort, not knock him out. Hard Spun's work before his win at Turfway was 1:00 3/5 five days out. Interestingly perhaps, the work that preceded his loss at OP came seven days out (though he had won earlier with a seven-day work). When contemplating horses in a contentious race, additional information can give a player added confidence in making that play. Street Sense at 111 and Hard Spun at 106 were the two fastest horses on the BRIS Speed ratings! In this instance, there were two horses with positive set ups, matching previous patterns for their trainers and themselves. They each produced top efforts running to or exceeding expectations at odds of 4.9-1 and 10-1, respectively. The exacta paid slightly more than 50-1. Hard Spun was perfectly tractable during the race and was certainly the best of the speed. The work set him up for that effort. Street Sense ran as anticipated and proved best. Sure he had a good trip -- maybe of his own making -- and there is little doubt in this mind that he has the athleticism and agility to make his own racing luck, unlike many excuse horses. This kind of pattern play for horse and trainer comes up for the lesser lights of the game too, and frequently at generous prices. Eight days later at Belmont, Sal Russo had Flying Falcon (Fly So Free) in a $14K claiming sprint. Two starts back, she won at Gulfstream on March 7 when she dropped from $25K to $18K off a dull effort with early speed and was beaten 21 lengths. The win came 18 days after the poor effort, but she had breezed 37 2/5 four days before the race -- usually a sign of intent with a lower-priced individual. She won going away at odds of 4-1. Flying Falcon returned to Aqueduct on April 19 where she was rank and threw another clunker for $25K. Twenty-four days later, she was dropped to $14K. The most notable thing was the five-day breeze in :49. We have a record of other Russo winners with four- and five-day breezes. Other factors were the drop and that her Gulfstream win came in her second race after shipping and her second for Russo, and while today's was to be at her home track Belmont, it was also her second start after the ship. She won rather convincingly, returning a nifty $19 while repeating a horse and trainer pattern in evidence right there on the printed page. There were other horses in these races that matched their trainers' normal patterns of preparation, and their own earlier victories. But in virtually every race there are choices to be made. Sometimes it is the higher odds; sometimes it is the fact that the pattern matches of trainer and/or horse give you added confidence. Very little in this game is simple, but having history on your side can be a noteworthy advantage.
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