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PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING OCTOBER 20, 2007 Fresh Horses in the Breeders' Cup by Tim Holland In this space nearly a year ago it was noted how well "fresh" horses had performed in the previous week's Breeders' Cup races and, while that article could have been taken as somewhat "redboarding," a resolution was made to pay better attention to this angle the following year. Indeed, three of last year's winners, Classic (G1) hero Invasor (Arg), Filly and Mare Turf (G1) heroine Ouija Board (GB) and Red Rocks (Ire) (Galileo [Ire]) who won the Turf (G1), had not raced for at least 45 days and three other winners on the day, Thor's Echo (Swiss Yodeler), Miesque's Approval and Round Pond were making their third starts back, having been laid off for at least 60 days in the summer. Conversely, it may be noted that the defeated favorite for the Classic, Bernardini, was making his eighth start of the year having been on the go since January, and Hurricane Run (Ire), who disappointed as the post-time choice for the Turf, was making his fourth start within two months. A review of the results of the three previous Breeders' Cups proves that 2006 was not an exception. Winners Saint Liam, Silver Train, Ghostzapper, Better Talk Now, Islington (Ire) and Six Perfections (Fr) had not raced for at least 45 days. Meanwhile victors Artie Schiller, Shirocco (Ger), Ouija Board, Speightstown, Singletary, Pleasantly Perfect, Johar, Adoration and Cajun Beat were all making their second or third race off a layoff. On the flip-side, a few well-fancied runners in this time period that showed the effects of hard racing seasons included: Borrego, who was unplaced in the 2005 Classic as the close second favorite while making his eighth start of the year having been on the go since February; Sightseek, unplaced as the odds-on choice in the 2003 Distaff when also racing for the eighth time in the season and having won four straight Grade 1 events; and Ashado, who finished third as the favorite in the 2005 Distaff when competing for the seventh time without any significant time off between her races. The first Breeders' Cup event this year will be one of three races introduced this year, the Filly and Mare Sprint. Twelve have been pre-entered including two whose first preference is in other events. The expected favorite is DREAM RUSH (Wild Rush), winner of four of her six starts this year and six-of-eight lifetime including two Grade 1 scores, most recently the Test S. (G1) at Saratoga. With 83 days off since the Test, Dream Rush will be fresh and is trained by Rick Violette, who owns a 19-percent win rate with horses returning from this length of a layoff. Although value may be doubtful, the dark bay filly has the speed to be on or near the early lead and will be hard to deny. The new Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (which will actually be run over a mile and 70 yards) has 11 pre-entrants, including two that are expected to start elsewhere. Discreet Cat (Forestry) is the likely favorite and he should certainly be fresh having made just one start this fall and just two in 2007. However, a better performance may have been expected from Discreet Cat in his defeat as the odds-on favorite in the Vosburgh S. (G1) and added improvement will be required if he is to be a factor. That is not guaranteed and a better proposition, at more reasonable odds, may be CORINTHIAN (Pulpit), who will not have raced for 56 days and who had a 60-day layoff prior to his most recent race. He will be cutting back to roughly the distance at which he achieved his biggest victory to date, the Metropolitan H. (G1), which he won off a similar layoff of 51 days and with plenty of early pace likely, he should get a scenario favorable to his stalking style. His trainer, James Jerkens, sports a 21-percent win rate with layoff runners, and Corinthian has been working well. Thirteen are pre-entered for the Filly and Mare Turf (G1) over 1 3/8 miles and among the favorites will be the unbeaten Nashoba's Key (Silver Hawk), who fits into the category of one that has had a long year and may be best avoided. The popular Todd Pletcher-trained pair of Honey Ryder (Lasting Approval) and Wait a While (Maria's Mon) will both come in here relatively fresh, the former not having raced for 77 days and the latter having had more than two months off prior to her last two starts. However, both have proven beatable at the highest level, as seen by their third- and fourth-place positions in this event a year ago. A better direction to find value may lie with two fresh fillies from England, PASSAGE OF TIME (GB) (Dansili [GB]) and SIMPLY PERFECT (GB) (Danehill), who have both been pointed to this event for some time. Trained by Henry Cecil, who rarely ships to America, Passage of Time disappointed as the favorite for the Epsom Oaks (Eng-G1) when a throat abscess was cited as an excuse. Allowed more than three months off to recover, the Juddmonte Farms-owned filly made an encouraging reappearance when third in the prestigious Prix Vermeille (Fr-G1). Simply Perfect was also a little disappointing in the Epsom Oaks but returned soon after to win the Falmouth S. (Eng-G1) and run third in the Prix d'Astarte (Fr-G1) after which she was given more than two months off. Returning in the Sun Chariot S. (Eng-G1), Simply Perfect, who is trained by Jeremy Noseda (who was based in California several years ago) produced a good prep for this when she led two furlongs from home until tiring late to finish a close fourth. This year's renewal of the Sprint (G1) promises to be a contentious affair, and the majority of the pre-entrants have been lightly raced through this year, with the average number of starts per entrant for 2007 being just more than five. The two most lightly raced, with three starts each, are KELLY'S LANDING (Patton) and COMMENTATOR (Distorted Humor), who both have solid claims to this prize. The former has not started since his memorable victory in the Dubai Golden Shaheen (UAE-G1) in March but has run some of his best races off layoffs and has been working well recently. Also, trainer Eddie Kenneally owns a solid 20-percent win rate with 90-day plus returnees. In contrast to Kelly's Landing, who likes to rate from off the pace, Commentator's preferred style is to make the early lead. With plenty of other early speed this will not be an easy task but, if achieved, the Nick Zito (17 percent off layoffs) representative may be hard to catch. Like Kelly's Landing, he has run well in the past from off the bench and, judging by a recent bullet work at Saratoga, is in good form. After Market (Storm Cat) and Nobiz Like Shobiz (Albert the Great) can be expected to be two of the most popular home-based choices at the windows for the Mile (G1), but both may be more comfortable with more distance and, as importantly, both have endured taxing seasons with eight starts each. Several others appear to have a better chance of producing their best efforts, including the Irish invader EXCELLENT ART (GB) (Pivotal), who won the prestigious St James's Palace S. (Eng-G1) at Royal Ascot this summer before finishing a close second in the Sussex S. (Eng-G1) and then rested for nearly two months. Most recently in late September, the bay three-year-old finished second, beaten just half-a-length, in Europe's leading one-mile event, the Queen Elizabeth II S. (Eng-G1), where his efforts were hampered by the lack of early pace and softer ground than he would have liked -- two considerations he should not have to worry about here. With just four starts this year and trained by Aidan O'Brien, the colt be will fresh and can be expected to be doing his best running late. Other runners have enjoyed relatively easy seasons and may be at their best for this excellent betting race while offering some value are Jeremy (Danehill Dancer), who finished just behind Excellent Art in the Sussex and will be making his second start off a layoff for trainer Sir Michael Stoute, who has enjoyed Breeders' Cup success in the past; Kip Deville, who is trained by Richard Dutrow, has a previous Grade 1 win at a mile over the turf on his resume and is making his third start off a 60-day break; and the possible pacesetter Remarkable News (Ven) (Chayim), who will be making his second start off a layoff. An interesting pre-entrant, and possible upsetter, is SILENT NAME (Jpn) (Sunday Silence), who will be making his first start for Bobby Frankel, having been transferred from the barn of Gary Mandella. The last time Silent Name raced after a layoff in excess of 100 days, the result was a game third-place finish in the Frank E. Kilroe Mile H. (G1), and Frankel wins with 29 percent of his runners coming off a 90-plus day layoff. The majority of the 15 pre-entrants for the Distaff seem to have had long seasons with well-fancied entrants such as Ginger Punch (Awesome Again), Indian Vale (A.P. Indy), Lear's Princess ( Lear Fan) and Octave (Unbridled's Song) having been on the go since early April or earlier, each with little time off between their races. A couple that may be reasonably fresh are UNBRIDLED BELLE (Broken Vow), who is trained by Pletcher, and the Carl Nafzger entrant LADY JOANNE (Orientate). Unbridled Belle will be making just her fifth start of the year, having not made her seasonal reappearance until mid-June, and Lady Joanne was afforded a six-week break prior to her last start, a second-place finish in the Spinster S. (G1) at Keeneland. Dylan Thomas (Ire) (Danehill) will attempt what almost seems the impossible by adding the Breeders' Cup Turf (G1) to his victory in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1) just 20 days ago, a double that has been unsuccessfully attempted by four others. This would be a remarkable feat for the O'Brien-trained colt since he has already finished in the first two in seven Group 1 races this year. However, he has not had a break since April and it should be noted that he barely lasted to win the Arc. Furthermore, this race seems like an afterthought for Dylan Thomas, while last year's winner, RED ROCKS (Ire) (Galileo [Ire]) has been campaigned all year with this race in mind by his shrewd handler, Brian Meehan. After his Churchill Downs victory last November Red Rocks reappeared in the Dubai Sheema Classic (UAE-G1) in March in which he finished a non-threatening ninth. This was followed a month later by a win in the Gordon Richards S. (Eng-G3) at Sandown after which he has made just two more starts which both resulted in dull fourth-place finishes against Group 1 company. These last two seemingly moderate efforts may ensure that the price on Red Rocks is inflated, but his last race is better than it looks on paper. Indeed, after missing the break in the 1 1/4-mile Irish Champion S. (Ire-G1) and trailing for much of the race, Red Rocks stayed on well to be six lengths behind the in-top-form Dylan Thomas at the finish. He will appreciate the step back up in distance to 12 furlongs and should enjoy the expected fast ground. The field for the Classic (G1) must be one of the strongest and competitive seen in years, and a win by either Lawyer Ron (Langfuhr), Curlin (Smart Strike), Street Sense (Street Cry [Ire]), Hard Spun (Danzig) or Any Given Saturday (Distorted Humor) would be of little surprise. It is hard to oppose this quintet, but it is worth noting that if an upset were to occur, it could come from GEORGE WASHINGTON (Ire) (Danehill), who ran in last year's Classic at the end of a season that saw him put up top-class performances to win the English Two Thousand Guineas (Eng-G1) and the Queen Elizabeth II -- as well as miss a good part of the year through injury. In the event he made a respectable showing in the Classic, and could have been closer but for being bumped two furlongs from home before he was sent to stud for his short-lived stallion career. This year the Coolmore-owned colt has been carefully placed, making just three starts, and may be ready to run the race of his life.
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