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COMMENTARY MAY 7, 2008 Work remains for Big Brown by John Mucciolo One can't help but be impressed with the emphatic victory put forth by IEAH Stables' BIG BROWN (Boundary) in Saturday's 134th Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs, but the strapping colt still has a few obstacles to overcome before being enshrined into Thoroughbred lore as the 12th Triple Crown winner, the first in three decades. Trained by Richard Dutrow, the Kentucky-bred has been simply untouchable in four career starts and appears to be in a different area code from a talent standpoint than his foes at this juncture, but this road has been traveled often before and it seems inevitable that an unexpected roadblock will appear at the most inopportune time. Here's a look at what could possibly stand in the way of Brown and the Crown. Traffic: Big Brown has been so good to this point that he has been able to avoid anything resembling traffic in his career, and that's a tribute to his agility, speed and intelligence. A dominant front-running winner on the grass in his lone start last year, the sophomore traveled widest of all in both his 2008 debut and the Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream, and raced even wider in the Kentucky Derby, running closer to 1 5/16 miles than a mile and a quarter. Not many horses, if any, could do what he has done in such a short time, but champions are almost always measured by their courage and ability to overcome adversity, and we haven't seen that yet in Big Brown. We have no idea if the well-bred colt can handle dirt in his face, rally on the rail or rate kindly behind runners at any stage of a race. He may not have to deal with any of those issues, or handle anything thrown at him, but Big Brown hasn't answered those questions yet. Feet: Big Brown's various issues with his hooves have been well publicized, but he's shown no signs of problems in recent months and it may continue to be a non-issue over the next five weeks. I'm hoping that we never have to hear about his feet again, but it is something that bears attention and could derail his Triple Crown hopes like a barn fire. Big Sandy: The famed Belmont strip has hosted 28 horses with a chance for a Triple Crown, and 17 failed to deliver. The surface at Belmont is always a concern, but Dutrow's home base has been good to Big Brown thus far and likely won't pose the biggest problem; it's the distance we have to worry about most. The reality of running 1 1/2 miles in June of your sophomore season is brutal enough, and Big Brown will be asked to make a third start in five weeks, something many horses in the breed can't cope with nowadays, if he wins the Preakness (G1). This is an issue that shouldn't be taken lightly. Capable, extraordinary, sturdy, freakishly good runners have lost for a variety of reasons in the third leg of the Triple Crown, one of the more daunting tasks in all of sport. No horse, including Big Brown, is a lock in Elmont, New York, in early June. Horses: Considering Big Brown was eight lengths better than any male that was in the Derby makes it hard to enthusiastically side with any of his returning foes, but the lightly raced DENIS OF CORK (Harlan's Holiday) has hope. The David Carroll-trained colt was arguably a race short in the Derby and should improve off his fine performance. Jockey Calvin Borel shifted the sophomore from his 16 post directly to the rail once the gates opened, running diagonally instead of straight ahead, and he was far back in last early and left with too much to do in the latter stages on Saturday. The surface at Churchill on that day was very quick, and it's hard for any runner to go last-to-first in such a robust field. If Big Brown happens to regress a couple of lengths and Denis improves some, it could make it very interesting in the Belmont. The Japanese-mystery horse on the list of Belmont (G1) probables is CASINO DRIVE (Mineshaft), who will attempt to become the third consecutive Belmont winner produced by the 2007 Broodmare of the Year Better Than Honour (Deputy Minister). Jazil was an impressive victor in 2006, and he was followed by the unforgettable filly Rags to Riches last year. Casino Drive reportedly demolished a maiden field in his debut and has been stabled at Belmont in preparation for the Peter Pan S. (G2) on Saturday. We'll know more following that 1 1/8-mile test. Not many individuals would be upset to see Big Brown become a Triple Crown winner; it's good for the overall health of the sport, which could use some positive press for a change. If it's meant to be, I’m all for it because Big Brown, to this point, looks to be worthy of all of our graces. He's been machine-like, a man among boys, and could have an infinite ceiling. He was bred to be racehorse, as opposed to being mated for the sales, and Monticule Farm should be applauded for that. It's refreshing to me, and the way champions are surely made. Big Brown still has much to do in his search for racing immortality, but he seems to be a worthy candidate.
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