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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS AUGUST 15, 2008 by Dick Powell Rain continued at Saratoga this past week with no let up in sight. Here's how scattered the thunderstorms were last Thursday and Friday: On Thursday, there were strong thunderstorms that hit Saratoga Race Course midway through the card. I live about 10 miles west of the track and weather that usually hits me hits the track 10 minutes later. On Thursday, I had no rain at all. Friday saw torrential rains accompanied by nickel-sized hail hit the track right after the 2ND race. Where I live, there were some dark clouds to the north but, again, we had no rain. Saratoga was hit so hard that the cushion on the far turn nearing the top of the stretch washed away and the rest of the card had to be cancelled. I have horseplayer friends from New York City call me in the morning and ask me how the weather is. All I can do is tell them how it is at home but can't make any predictions about the afternoon. It's hard enough trying to pick winners; it's even harder to predict the weather up here. Miserable weather with few turf races and enough scratches to run your pen out of ink raises the issue of how would a synthetic track do here? I've made it clear in this space that the positives of synthetic tracks far outweigh their negatives. And for this exercise, let's assume that horse safety would be equal. Wednesday's card at Saratoga is a good example. Four races had to be switched from the turf to the main track. This resulted in 38 program scratches leaving those four races with fields of six, six, four and seven. And that was with a main track that was rated as "fast" when these scratches happened. Around the time that the 9TH race was run, the sky opened up and it poured for about three hours. If Saratoga had a synthetic main track, I maintain that there would be far fewer scratches when races come off the turf and when the main track comes up sloppy. The Keeneland experience shows this to be true as well as Arlington Park, Woodbine and Golden Gate Fields. There was not much difference between what Saratoga experienced on Friday and what Golden Gate experienced last winter, but Golden Gate stayed open and Saratoga was washed out. I realize that there's a cadre of handicappers that claim that they will not play tracks that install synthetic main traces. But the numbers belie this claim. Yes, Del Mar is down some but look around the country and there is a nation-wide trend of gaming businesses being down. And Del Mar is also down compared to last year when most account wagering companies were able to take their simulcast signal. As far as I can see, this year's handle figures at Del Mar are equal to the last year (2006) that they had a dirt main track. Del Mar's Pick 6 carryover pools are still enormous and this is in spite of field sizes being down due to some new rules in California regarding steroids. Can a racetrack be any more inconsistent than Saratoga has been this year? Yes, it's mostly due to the weather, but there are days like last Sunday when the "fast" main track was sealed tight as a drum in anticipation of bad weather and speed dominated the early part of the card. If you did not make the lead you had no chance of winning. I love to handicap and bet on races where there are many first time starters. Wednesday's Saratoga card offered up many enticing possibilities for me but like my favorite food, they are not always good for me. In the 2ND race, a juvenile maiden special weight going 5 1/2 furlongs, there were some expensive, fast-working debut runners from top connections. The 7-5 favorite was Celestial Diamond (Malibu Moon), a $700,000 juvenile purchase by West Point Stable that was making his first start for Kiaran McLaughlin. Next in the wagering at 22-10 was Mesa Sunrise (Sky Mesa), an $800,000 juvenile purchase by Brushwood Stable that was training well for Bill Mott. At nearly 3-1 was Laver (Grand Slam) who ran a good second in fast time in his career debut at Keeneland for Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez. I liked 7-1 Grizzly Peak (Tale of the Cat), who was making his debut for Eddie Kenneally. He had a bullet work from the gate at Keeneland on July 16 before shipping here and a couple of half-mile breezes from the gate since then. I loved his precocious pedigree and figured that he would get ignored in the betting. I completely tossed out the other two first time starters because of their trainers. Axminster (Tomahawk) is trained by John Hertler who shows a 2 percent strike rate with his last 52 first time starters. Ian Wilkes, the trainer of CAPT. CANDYMAN CAN (Candy Ride [Arg]), has only won with 2 percent of his last 64 first time starters. At the start, Grizzly Peak broke well and had the lead on the rail with Edgar Prado. Celestial Diamond was breathing down his neck around the turn and Grizzly Peak put him away at the top of the stretch. Without getting a breather, Mesa Sunrise made his move turning for home and looked like he would go right by Grizzly Peak. But, despite a first quarter in :21.57 and constant pressure, Grizzly Peak put Mesa Sunrise away. Laver was not gaining any ground and Grizzly Peak had now defeated his three most serious rivals. Unfortunately, here came Capt. Candyman Can with a furlong to go and he went right by Grizzly Peak to win going away by 7 1/4 lengths at odds of 19-1. I played Grizzly Peak to win and protected him in exactas underneath the logical contenders, but didn't use Capt. Candyman Can because of his trainer Ian Wilkes' propensity to race his horses into shape and not have them ready to go first time out. After licking my wounds, it obvious that Candy Ride, who is off to a good start with his first crop of juveniles, is a young sire that proves nature can overcome nurture. Later in the card in a race that I did not bet, David Donk -- 3 percent with his last 97 first-time starters -- won the 5TH race with SPINA (During) at odds of 17-1. Another lesson to be learned: if you are going to play a trainer with a low first-out win percentage at least get a good price on them. Wednesday's feature race was the Adirondack S. (G2) for juvenile fillies going 6 1/2 furlongs. I liked Pretty Prolific (Lion Heart) for the same reason as above but with a different twist. Trainer James Baker was zero-for-19 when he unveiled Pretty Prolific at Churchill on June 22. Despite that, she went off as the 3-2 favorite and was a very impressive winner. Since then, Pretty Prolific had trained brilliantly. So, I figured that this must be some special filly to win first out for a trainer that does not excel in that spot. She was well-bet in that career debut so there must have been quite a buzz about her. Her training since then was smashing and she showed that she doesn't have to be on the lead to win. In a wide-open affair, I went with her at 10-1 odds and protected her in exactas with Bold Union (Dixie Union), winner of the Astoria S. last out, and MANI BHAVAN (Storm Boot), a blowout maiden winner in her career debut at Delaware Park by nine lengths for Steve Klesaris. At the start, Mani Bhavan gunned right to the front and opened up a clear lead. Pretty Prolific stumbled two strides after the start and was dead last after a quarter-mile. Mani Bhavan was not getting any pace pressure and cruised through a first quarter in :22.36. Considering how far back the gate is placed for 6 1/2-furlong sprints because of the clubhouse turn meeting the chute, this was a very slow first quarter and there would be no catching Mani Bhavan. She expanded her lead to four lengths at the eighth pole and cruised to a seven-length win. Julien Leparoux was rallying Pretty Prolific up the rail in the stretch before the inside closed up and he had to swing her out three wide. Her final lunge to the wire fell a nose short. Mani Bhavan paid $19.40 to win and the exacta with Pretty Prolific would have been $156. A better break and clear running in the final furlong would have been enough, but Pretty Prolific had neither and a big score eluded me. I was happy that my angle of playing a first out winner from a trainer that rarely wins first out next time she runs was a live one and would do the same if confronted with the same conditions. Sunday's Best Pal S. (G2) at Del Mar was a controversial one and lit up the blogs with differing opinions on the decision of the stewards. First, let me say that I had a large win bet on Kelly Leak (Runaway Groom) at 6-1 and protected him in exactas with 9-5 AZUL LEON (Lion Heart). So the decision to disqualify Kelly Leak from first and place him fourth not only cost me the win bet but the exacta. Of all the possible outcomes of the inquiry, this was the worst one for me. But I can't disagree with the stewards' decision. Victor Espinoza stayed wide turning for home on Kelly Leak. When Rafael Bejarano decided to go inside of him aboard Azul Leon instead of risking being carried out even farther, Espinoza came back to the inside tightening things up for Bejarano and Azul Leon and causing a chain reaction that affected the original fourth-place finisher Charlie's Moment (Indian Charlie). Thus, Kelly Leak, who instigated the chain of events, was disqualified and placed behind Charlie's Moment. Having watched the replay over and over -- both the pan and the head-on views -- I can't dispute the stewards' decision. Kelly Leak definitely caused the problems and Espinoza was not clear enough in front to drift out and drift in without being held responsible. They could have let the original result stand, but the folks that bet Azul Leon would have had a bigger beef than I did.
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