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PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING NOVEMBER 15, 2008 SPI and adaptable sires by Tim Holland A valuable pedigree handicapping tool is the North American stallion Sire Production Index (SPI), a computation which indicates the average racing class of a stallion's foals, which can be found for the sires of runners, as well as the sire of dams of entrants, in the BRIS Past Performances. While the figure is useful in its own right to gain an indication of the sire's worth, more insight can be gleaned from closer examination. Indeed, and in Brisnet's Bloodstock Review, tables are available that list the year's leading SPIs for sires over different distances and surfaces. While it is interesting to compare the figures of stallions over different distances -- for example route sire A.P. Indy scores a 1.79 in sprints but a 3.68 in races at a mile or over, or conversely the speedy Forestry rates an SPI of 1.13 with his route runners, but a higher 1.50 with runners entered in sprint races -- it is the comparison of performances over the different surfaces, dirt, turf and all-weather, that might be of most use to handicappers. For example, the solid veteran sire Crafty Prospector owns an above-average SPI of 1.05 on dirt but a look at his comparable turf and all-weather figures reveals below-average numbers of 0.92 and 0.84, respectively. While these statistics were formed with a minimum of 22 runners in each category, one must always be wary of putting too much faith in one set of numbers, and indeed a look at Crafty Prospector's 2007 SPIs substantiates this view by revealing an even stronger preference of his runners to the traditional dirt. On that surface he scored a similar 1.04 SPI while on turf the final figure came to 0.81 and on synthetic it was a poor 0.66. Consistent sire Salt Lake is another stallion for whom comparing SPIs over different surfaces brings one to the conclusion that his offspring are better suited to the traditional style dirt. Meanwhile the figures from both this year and last also revealed that the produce of sires such as Horse Chestnut (SAf) and Lost Soldier are better on turf than they are on either dirt or synthetic while Point Given and Put It Back, although decent on all surfaces, have their best success when their runners are on synthetic surfaces. Examples of surface preferences are plentiful when comparing SPIs of top sires, but it is also interesting pinpointing stallions whose runners excel on all footings. There are 73 North American-based sires at this time that own a better than average SPI of over 1.00 with at least five runners on all three (dirt, turf and synthetic) surfaces. Rankings were made by taking an average of their standings in the three lists and, by coming out on top, KINGMAMBO (Mr. Prospector) may be considered the top "above average adaptable" sire this year. This rank is achieved by his owning the highest all-weather, the fourth highest dirt and 16th highest turf SPI. In the dirt category his position is earned largely through the successes of Student Council, winner of the Pimlico Special (G1), and Mambo in Seattle, who was second in the Travers S. (G1), and his turf ranking is helped by major international grass winners Henrythenavigator and Archipenko. While Kingmambo's position as the leading all-weather sire (which, unlike the other two categories is strictly restricted to North American races) is based on just nine starters and is inflated by Henrythenavigator's second-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), which netted him $1 million in prize money, his legitimacy as a synthetic sire is backed up by his fifth-place finish in the 2007 SPI list. Being out of a mare by Nureyev, Kingmambo is bred similarly to the number two-ranked CHESTER HOUSE who is also by Mr. Prospector and out of a mare by El Gran Senor who, like Nureyev, is by Northern Dancer. Chester House, who died after siring just a few crops, had a slightly slow start to his breeding career, but has had a remarkable year with six stakes winners on the dirt, 12 on the turf and three, including two Breeders' Cup triumphs, on synthetic tracks. Mr. Prospector's direct influence on this list runs deep for not only is he the sire of the top two but he is also responsible for six more stallions on the list of 73 including SMART STRIKE (sixth), GONE WEST (ninth) and NOT FOR LOVE (20th). In addition, he is the grandsire of LEMON DROP KID (10th), DISTORTED HUMOR (23rd) and ELUSIVE QUALITY (25th), and the broodmare sire of PULPIT (13th) and TALE OF THE CAT (21st) GIANT'S CAUSEWAY is number three on the list through a solid and well-rounded compilation of nine dirt, nine turf and five synthetic stakes wins. He is one of a remarkable 14 sons (out of a total of 73 sires) of STORM CAT (who is 11th on this list in his own right) that own an above average SPI on all three surfaces for the year and some of his Grade1 winners this year include Frost Giant (dirt), Red Giant (turf) and Heatseeker (Ire) (synthetic). Similar to Kingmambo and Chester House, Giant's Causeway has plenty of turf influences in his pedigree as, in addition to being from the Northern Dancer line, he is out a mare by RAHY, sire of top grass runners such as Fantastic Light and Tranquility Lake. Rahy has also proven a top dirt sire, evidenced by runners such as Serena's Song, and is an adaptable sire checking in at number 38. In turn, Rahy's turf influence is inherited from his sire, Blushing Groom (Fr), who is also seen as the grandsire of CHEROKEE RUN (33rd) and ORIENTATE (40th) and the broodmare sire of AWESOME AGAIN (26th) and CARSON CITY (53rd). With Grade 1 victories on dirt and synthetic surfaces this year, respectively, by Music Note and Little Belle, and the Kent S. (G3) win of Adriano on the grass, A.P. INDY earned fourth place. Second to Danzig on last year's comparative list, A.P. Indy is established as a sire that can produce top runners on all surfaces and is also becoming known as a sire-of-sires. Among his sons at stud are PULPIT (13th) who himself is responsible for the leading freshman sire TAPIT (seventh) and SKY MESA (28th). Known mostly as a dirt influence Unbridled is getting his share of adaptable sires namely through UNBRIDLED'S SONG (fifth), RED BULLET (15th) and EMPIRE MAKER (19th). With the first two mentioned being out of mares by grass influence Caro (Ire), who is also the broodmare sire of MARIA'S MON (18th), and Empire Maker being a three-quarter brother to Chester House, the trio own pedigrees mixed with dirt and turf influences -- a denominator that appears often amongst adaptable sires. Top 20 "adaptable" sires listed with sire and damsire and number of 2008 stakes winners on dirt-turf-all weather surfaces: 1. Kingmambo (Mr. Prospector-Nureyev) 2-8-0
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