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KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT JANUARY 20, 2010 by James Scully The first round of 2010 preps for Kentucky Derby (G1) hopefuls are underway, with Santa Anita, Oaklawn Park, Tampa Bay Downs and Golden Gate Fields all offering races over the holiday weekend, and Gulfstream Park and Fair Grounds will get into act this Saturday with the Holy Bull S. (G3) and Lecomte S. (G3), respectively. The big guns -- champion LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Smart Strike), Remsen S. (G2) hero BUDDY'S SAINT (Saint Liam) and Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) romper SUPER SAVER (Maria's Mon) -- won't get started for at least another month, but we'll have plenty to discuss in their absence. San Rafael Bob Baffert has the early Derby favorite in Lookin at Lucky, but the Hall of Fame conditioner is loaded with prospects and is counting on being at least double-barreled when he arrives at Churchill Downs in the spring. Unbeaten CONVEYANCE (Indian Charlie) took a step in that direction with a 1 3/4-length score in Saturday's San Rafael S. (G3). After commanding victories over maiden special weight and allowance rivals in a pair of six-furlong races, Conveyance stretched out to two turns against a questionable group of four rivals in the one-mile San Rafael. The front runner got away with slow early splits (:24 2/5 and :48 2/5) and was passed momentarily by former claimer Cardiff Giant (Yankee Gentlemen) approaching the top of the stretch, but he shrugged off the surprising challenge and was in complete control in the lane despite racing greenly. The gray had his head cocked sideways toward the stands and switched leads back and forth before crossing the wire. Both Baffert and jockey Garrett Gomez said the gray colt got a little tired late, and Conveyance netted only an 88 BRIS Late Pace rating. After registering a whopping 101 BRIS Speed figure for his previous allowance score, his Speed rating plunged to a 90 in the San Rafael. It wasn't the most impressive showing, but I still like him going forward. Conveyance is classy individual with dangerous speed. Little but long-striding, the lightly-raced sophomore has the pedigree to handle longer distances and will likely improve upon his first stakes attempt. Baffert said he wants to get him on dirt in the near future, and that will be a plus. Conveyance's sire (Indian Charlie) and damsire (Holy Bull) were both beaten Derby favorites, so he's got the revenge factor going for him this year. Smarty Jones After concluding his juvenile season with a good-looking allowance victory at Churchill Downs, DRYFLY (Jump Start) confirmed his status as a Derby prospect with a victory in Monday's Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn Park. The Lynn Whiting-trained gelding sprinted to the front when the gates opened and was never threatened under Calvin Borel, but he got a little tired late in the one-mile event. He still managed to win comfortably by 2 1/4 lengths over the late-running Oklahoma-bred Pleasant Storm (Pleasant Tap). After receiving a 102 BRIS Speed rating for his seven-furlong allowance triumph at Churchill, Dryfly earned a respectable 95 figure on Monday. The Smarty Jones is the first in a four-race series that culminates in the April 10 Arkansas Derby (G1), and the bay Kentucky-bred looms as a potential major player in those events. The competition will get much tougher and he'll need to keep improving as the distances increase, but it was an encouraging start to his three-year-old campaign. Pasco Tampa Bay Downs, which produced a couple of talented top-class runners last year in Musket Man (Yonaguska) and General Quarters (Sky Mesa), launched their three-year-old stakes program on Saturday with the seven-furlong Pasco S., and the up-and-coming UPTOWNCHARLYBROWN (Limehouse) delivered a rousing performance, drawing off to a six-length decision in his stakes bow. He defeated a small, suspect group of rivals over the Oldsmar, Florida, oval, but his sheer superiority makes him one to follow in the coming months. After rating a few lengths off the early pace, the chestnut rolled past the leaders in upper stretch and was kept to task the rest of the way by jockey Daniel Centeno. It was only his second career start, following a nine-length demolition over maiden special weight rivals on December 26 at Tampa, and the Alan Seewald trainee has earned commendable BRIS Speed ratings (94 and 98) in his two sprint starts. We'll find out more about this promising colt when he stretches out to two turns in the 1 1/16-mile Sam F. Davis S. (G3) on February 13. California Derby Saturday's California Derby set up as a showcase for the Todd Pletcher-trained CONNEMARA (Giant's Causeway), who invaded Golden Gate Fields off an allowance victory at Oak Tree, but the late-running colt couldn't run down the pacesetting RANGER HEARTLEY (Lost Soldier), who sprang the minor upset in his stakes debut. Trained by John Sadler, Ranger Heartley probably won't be a serious factor on the Derby trail. He registered only an 86 BRIS Speed rating for his narrow victory, and I can't envision him wanting any more ground than Saturday's 8 1/2-furlong distance. The dark bay gelding got away with an extremely slow pace (:49 4/5 for the half-mile) and was all out to withstand the late runners. Connemara, a half-brother to multiple Grade 1 winner and 2004 Kentucky Derby runner-up Lion Heart, didn't turn heads with a pair of 83 BRIS Speed ratings in his first two starts and left plenty to be desired in the California Derby. But it's important to remember that he's made all three starts on synthetic tracks. If his connections want to find out what they have in terms of the Derby, they have to get him on dirt in the near future. Connemara still has much to prove, and may be too slow to ever develop into a legitimate Derby contender, but I liked the precociousness he displayed winning right away in his first two outings. The deep closer deserves the chance to get out of California. Upcoming A good-sized field is shaping up for Saturday's one-mile Holy Bull, and JACKSON BEND (Hear No Evil) will be the horse to beat. A dominant performer at Calder last year, the Florida-bred was flattered when D' Funnybone (D'wildcat), who finished second to his rival in the Frank Gomez Memorial S., went on to easily capture the Futurity S. (G2) and Saratoga Special S. (G2) in New York. Transferred to Nick Zito following his juvenile finale, Jackson Bend is working bullets for his return, and his BRIS Speed ratings will lay over his Holy Bull rivals. He figures to be an overwhelming favorite. The one-mile Lecomte looks like a more evenly-matched affair. Kentucky Jockey Club third-placer WORLDLY (A.P. Indy), who exits a good second to the promising Stay Put (Put It Back) in a January 3 allowance at Fair Grounds, and Remsen third-placer CITRUS KID (Lemon Drop Kid) are the top draws.
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