|
|
FAIR GROUNDS NOTEBOOK FEBRUARY 11, 2010 by Frank Cotolo Matching a strong week that delivered 45-percent winners for the public, Fair Grounds also kept speed at bay last week, producing mostly off-the-pace winners, in both sprints and routes, on the main track and turf, in the 40 races run. It was fast from start to finish that week. We hope you read last week's notebook and used the closing information to benefit. From the look of the statistics, many bettors got on board and steered clear of backing top speed with conviction. Calculating the most recent four weeks of racing, chalk has ruled with the public choice's winning 49 percent of the 132 races. On the surface If the 51 percent of the overall winners that came from off the pace the previous week impressed all of us, we were shocked from last week's tally of 70 percent. A mere five races went to horses with a wire-to-wire journey and most of those were sprinting around six panels. Winning by stalking close to the pace (no worse than third and within a couple of lengths of the leader) was only accomplished 15 percent of the time, which was the same as the wire-to-wire winners. There were seven turf races in the four-program week. Here, too, off-the-pace strategies worked best, with 57 percent of the seven events -- three sprints and four routes -- coming from fourth or farther back to cash the top prizes. Trainers Though Steve Asmussen took another five horses through the winners' circle in four programs, his win rate has not risen enough to make the top-10 trainers by win percentage. The latest hero there is Victor Arceneaux. He saddled a first-out winner last week and moved to the top of the list. Here are the top-10 Fair Grounds conditioners by win percentage:
Asmussen would be next with 17 percent, followed closely by Greg Foley (16), Ron Werner (15), Eric Heitzman (15) and Michelle Lovell (15). You may want to make note that Pat Mouton is winning at only 6 percent. HORSES TO WATCH Friday (2/5) 1ST -- SECRET BERRY (Supremo Secret) set the pace, led into the stretch and did those things well despite being 12-1 and stopping on a dime in the stretch of this one-mile and 40-yard event on the dirt. 2ND -- TENSAS CAT (Cat Thief) came home well enough in this bulky field to secure third but interfered with another in the drive and was placed eighth. 4TH -- STORMIN LEAKY (Lake Austin) is a first-time starter that had speed enough to hold third after leading to the three-eighths at 6-1. Saturday (2/6) 6TH -- MISS ACAPULCO (Malibu Wesley) dueled hard for the lead, allowing the favorite to win. She's capable of better next time. 9TH -- STEVE'S STAR (Dynaformer) started slowly, drove four wide to get the lead and was strong enough for a fifth finisher, at 6-1. Sunday (2/7) 4TH -- COWBOY POKER (Erlton) ran around trouble, steadied at one point and still came back to be second. Monday (2/8) 7TH -- FASS FEAT (Placid Fund) had a heavy duel through three calls with two different challenges to get second at 4-1. 9TH -- RED DAGGER (Friends Lake) went wire to wire against the bias in a claimer and is a sharp bet-back possibility.
 Send this article to a friend
|
|
