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KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT MARCH 18, 2010 by James Scully Nobody knew what to expect from the champ. After missing training time due to illness and wet weather, LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Smart Strike) had every right to be a little short off the near three-month layoff in Saturday's Rebel S. (G2). He wasn't working fast in preparation for his dirt debut and wound up experiencing a dreadful trip at Oaklawn Park, but the superb colt would not be denied. The San Felipe S. (G2) and Tampa Bay Derby (G3) also highlighted an important weekend of Kentucky Derby (G1) preps. Rebel He got slammed around leaving the starting gate and nearly fell upon the heels of a rival on the backstretch, but Lookin at Lucky recovered and dug in gamely to collar NOBLE'S PROMISE (Cuvee) in the shadow of the finish line, winning by a neck. After netting huge BRIS Late Pace ratings at two, he came home strongly once again on Saturday, registering a 106 number, and his career-best 102 BRIS Speed rating is very encouraging. Trainer Bob Baffert had every reason to be ecstatic. "He's a horse that can overcome," said the Hall of Fame conditioner, who is pursuing his fourth Kentucky Derby trophy. "He's a great athlete and a great horse. He has that will to win, which is half the battle. He reminds me of Silver Charm in that you know he's going to show up every time." A three-time Grade 1 hero, Lookin at Lucky never overwhelmed his competition last season, doing just enough to win five-of-six starts, and he continued that trend on Saturday while erasing any fitness concerns. The Rebel was just the starting point for Baffert, so we can expect further improvement over the next seven weeks, and jockey Garrett Gomez has a big chance to win his first Kentucky Derby this year. The Derby is shaping up well for Lookin at Lucky with a preponderance of early speed among this year's contenders, and the talented late runner isn't the type to be knocked off his game in a bulky field. He resembles a hard-nosed fighter, one that's going to overcome adversity. Lookin at Lucky was practically mugged going into the first turn of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) and never quit following an extremely wide and troubled trip, and he displayed plenty of athleticism to overcome near-disaster in the Rebel. Those traits should serve him well in the Derby. Baffert will decide between the April 3 Wood Memorial S. (G1) and April 10 Arkansas Derby (G1) for his final prep. Runner-up Noble's Promise deserves kudos for an excellent effort off the bench. Winner of the Breeders' Futurity (G1), the Kenny McPeek colt missed by less than a length when finishing second to Lookin at Lucky in the CashCall Futurity (G1) in his juvenile finale and trained forwardly at Gulfstream Park for his dirt debut in the Rebel. He sat a good stalking trip in midpack, advanced into contention on the far turn, and surged to the lead in upper stretch, putting away DUBLIN (Afleet Alex) before facing the oncoming Lookin at Lucky. He also received a career-best 102 BRIS Speed rating. Noble's Promise is eligible to improve with a start under his belt and looms as a huge threat for the Arkansas Derby, especially if Lookin at Lucky goes to the Wood. Nine furlongs is probably within his scope, but 1 1/4 miles represents a major challenge. Sire Cuvee, a multiple graded winner up to seven furlongs, isn't a good source of stamina, and Noble's Promise is out of a mare by sprint specialist Clever Trick. He'll need to outrun his pedigree in the Derby. A jockey switch from Terry Thompson to Corey Nakatani didn't do Dublin any favors on Saturday. After guiding him about five-wide into the first turn, Nakatani gunned the Southwest S. (G3) runner-up into contention with a premature move leaving the backstretch that left him with little left for the stretch run. He battled head-and-head with Noble's Promise in upper stretch before weakening to third in the final furlong, three lengths back of second, and didn't run poorly given the bad trip. However, there are growing concerns with a colt who always has an excuse and has never won at two turns. Dublin is starting resemble the over-hyped prospect who never lives up to expectations. The D. Wayne Lukas pupil remains a threat to put it all together eventually, but he needs to show more in the Arkansas Derby. San Felipe SIDNEY'S CANDY (Candy Ride [Arg]) made it two straight wire-to-wire stakes wins in Southern California, stretching out from an impressive victory in the seven-furlong San Vicente S. (G2) to garner Saturday's San Felipe S. (G2) by a half-length, and he's another promising front runner for this year's Derby. The John Sadler-trained colt cruised along on slow, uncontested splits before drawing off into the stretch, and he'll be the one to beat in the April 3 Santa Anita Derby (G1). The chestnut hails from an outstanding female family and could be any type going forward. Visually spectacular in both starts this year, he benefited from a lack of pace in the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe and must still prove himself going two turns under difference circumstances. Sidney's Candy didn't rate effectively when wrapping up juvenile campaign with a fourth in an allowance contest at Santa Anita, raising concerns that he's a one-dimensional speed type, but they've got to catch him to beat him. He's capable of carrying his form forward in the Santa Anita Derby, but it's difficult to get excited about his chances in the Derby. Sidney's Candy won't have any dirt experience before arriving at Churchill Downs. Following four straight turf starts, INTERACTIF (Broken Vow) switched to Pro-Ride and turned in an admirable runner-up effort in the San Felipe, closing ground in deep stretch while never threatening the winner. The Todd Pletcher colt can't be dismissed on any surface -- he broke his maiden on the dirt at Monmouth Park -- and there's a lot to like about an honest colt who has won three of his last five starts, with both setbacks coming by less than a length. Interactif will be dangerous in the Santa Anita Derby. Third-placer CARACORTADO (Cat Dreams) suffered his first loss after opening his career with five straight wins, including the Robert B. Lewis S. (G2), but I'll give him a pass considering how poorly the race set up for him. Trainer Michael Machowsky will be able to regroup for the Santa Anita Derby, and the humbly-bred gelding is capable of better with a legitimate pace in front. Trainer Eoin Harty added blinkers to AMERICAN LION (Tiznow) and the colt was predictably eager when the gates opened, but jockey Julien Leparoux refused to let the colt run, fighting him during the early stages. Why were blinkers added? That makes two straight disappointments for American Lion at Santa Anita this year, and he needs to start making some progress in order to be a viable Derby contender. A change in venue couldn't hurt -- the last thing American Lion needs is another disappointing showing in the Santa Anita Derby in which he's his own worst enemy -- but that won't happen given Harty's proclaimed love for synthetic surfaces. DAVE IN DIXIE (Dixie Union) didn't run to expectations following his fast-closing second in the Robert Lewis, checking in a one-paced sixth in the San Felipe, but he was hurt by the slow pace. Sadler will ship him out of California for his final Derby prep, and the late runner needs to run well in order to have enough graded earnings. Tampa Bay Derby Saturday's Tampa Bay Derby (G3) was a strange race. SCHOOLYARD DREAMS (Stephen Got Even) rallied boldly to the lead with a quick turn of foot leaving the far turn, appearing ready to win by a large margin, but he lost his steam and came back to his rivals. ODYSSEUS (Malibu Moon), who raced close to the pace in second during the early stages, began to retreat nearing the conclusion of the far turn, dropping back to fifth before re-rallying in deep stretch. "Odysseus will have to wait for another day," track announcer Richard Grunder exclaimed as it appeared that the colt was completely done about a half-mile from the finish. It's difficult to gauge what impact the Tampa Bay Derby will have upon this year's Derby. At best, it could prove to be very important as one or more of the contestants continue to move forward and make their presence felt on Derby Day. At worst, it was an inconsequential prep, with longshot GLEAM OF HOPE's (City Zip) strong fourth-place effort serving as the perfect indicator. Seemingly overmatched beforehand, the 42-1 longshot threatened to win the whole thing on the far outside during the stretch run before falling only a length short as the field crawled home. Odysseus does have a lot going for him. A maiden winner at Gulfstream Park in mid-January, the chestnut colt captured a 1 1/16-mile allowance by 15 lengths at Tampa before making his stakes bow on Saturday. He showed a lot of resiliency in battling back and registered a career-best 100 BRIS Speed rating, and he appears to have a nice future for Tom Albertrani regardless of what happens in the Derby. He'll be severely tested for class next time in the Wood. Schoolyard Dreams will head to the Illinois Derby (G3) for Derek Ryan, and we're not sure whether he lost interest after striking the front on Saturday or was simply out of gas in the 1 1/16-mile event. Either way, he finished up slowly and doesn't look like a good candidate to handle 10 furlongs right now. SUPER SAVER (Maria's Mon) enjoyed the perfect trip on an easy lead but lacked another gear when challenged on the far turn. He didn't change leads while tiring noticeably in the stretch, and he's retreated fairly easily after setting the pace in two of his three stakes starts. The Pletcher trainee posted an impressive win the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) last fall, so he likes the track under the Twin Spires, but he's been judiciously handled so far and doesn't look as far along as Pletcher's top Derby prospects. He's going to have run much better next time to set him up for his best on Derby Day. Upcoming The Florida Derby (G1) is Saturday's headliner, and the 1 1/8-mile event lost a top contender on Tuesday when Eskendereya (Giant's Causeway) was re-directed to the Wood. That leaves RULE (Roman Ruler) as the horse to beat. He'll bring a four-race win streak, including victories in the Sam F. Davis S. (G3) and Delta Jackpot S. (G3), into the event, and his top rivals include recent allowance runners RADIOHEAD (GB) (Johannesburg), SOARING EMPIRE (Empire Maker) and FIRST DUDE (Stephen Got Even).
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