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KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT MARCH 25, 2010 by James Scully ICE BOX (Pulpit) rallied from last to post a 20-1 upset in Saturday's Florida Derby (G1), edging 29-1 longshot PLEASANT PRINCE (Indy King) by a nose, and the result flattered ESKENDEREYA (Giant's Causeway), who easily handled both colts in the Fountain of Youth S. (G2). The "Road to the Derby" will be in full swing this coming weekend with the Louisiana Derby (G2), Lane's End (G2), Sunland Derby (G3) and U.A.E. Derby (UAE-G2). Florida Derby Ice Box entered the Florida Derby as a perceived third stringer in the Nick Zito stable, with JACKSON BEND (Hear No Evil) and FLY DOWN (Mineshaft) garnering much more attention over the winter, but the chestnut stamped his ticket to the Kentucky Derby (G1) with a $450,000 payday that adversely affected his stablemates, who are still scrambling for enough graded earnings to make this year's field. With Jose Lezcano in the saddle, Ice Box benefited from a fast pace that took its toll on 9-5 favorite RULE (Roman Ruler), who contested early splits of :23 1/5, :46 2/5 and 1:10 3/5. Ice Box trailed all 10 rivals with three-eighths of a mile to run and closed strongly down the middle of the track to get up in the final strides, registering a career-best 101 BRIS Speed and a 108 Late Pace number. However, his final time (1:49.19) was 13 seconds slower than the filly Devil May Care (Malibu Moon) in the Bonnie Miss (G2) earlier in the program. From the female family of 1985 Derby winner Spend a Buck, Ice Box offered a good middle move in the Fountain of Youth before flattening out and is eligible to keep improving for his two-time Derby-winning conditioner. The late runner merits a look for the exotics at long odds on Derby Day, especially if the pace is wicked as expected, but Ice Box and Pleasant Prince don't rate as serious win contenders. Saturday was the third meeting between the two, and they received marginal Speed numbers in their previous encounters. Both took a significant jump forward in the Florida Derby. Rule weakened following his early exploits, but he could gain plenty in defeat. After facing little pace resistance in the Sam F. Davis (G3), Delta Jackpot (G3) and Jean Lafitte S., he dueled most of the way in his first start at nine furlongs and still managed to finish a clear third after being passed. This kind of performance can toughen up a front runner, and Rule figures to receive plenty of stamina from his female family and has six weeks to regroup for the Derby. The colt's BRIS Speed ratings compare favorably to any three-year-old this season, but his run style -- all four wins in wire-to-wire fashion -- remains a concern in a speed-laden field. Trainer Wesley Ward hopes to train Pleasant Prince straight up to the Derby, but the Florida-bred is on the cusp of the 20-horse threshold (excluding fillies and other expected defections) with $162,500 in graded earnings. There will be plenty of shuffling over the next month as horses move up the list and drop out of consideration, and Nowhere to Hide (Vindication) actually made the 2009 Derby field with only $55,500 in graded earnings. Look for the cut-off to be much higher this year. Eskendereya, who bypassed the Florida Derby in favor of the April 3 Wood Memorial (G1), is one spot below Pleasant Prince with $150,000 in graded earnings. Others who need to make some money in their final Derby prep include:
Swale D' FUNNYBONE (D'wildcat) confirmed his status as the nation's top three-year-old sprinter in Saturday's Swale S. (G2) and is expected to remain in one-turn events for the time being, with the possibility of joining the Triple Crown fray in the Preakness (G1). "My first choice for him next would be the (April 24) Withers ([G3] at Aqueduct), a one-turn mile, then see where we are," trainer Richard Dutrow said following the Swale. Owner Paul Pompa Jr. visited the winner's circle with Big Brown in 2008, so he doesn't need to chase the Derby experience, and D' Funnybone would be taken out of his comfort zone at 1 1/4 miles. He appeared to weary late in the seven-furlong Swale, as Edgar Prado hustled him to hold off the fast-closing Ibboyee (Medallist), and registered only a 101 BRIS Speed rating for the 1 1/4-length decision. That number is a couple of points lower than Big Drama (Montbrook), who won but was was placed second via disqualification in the 2009 edition. Champion sprinter Lost in the Fog netted a 106 for his win in the 2005 Swale. D' Funnybone makes it look easy but his Speed ratings aren't overwhelming. He received only a 100 when opening this season with a one-length victory in the Hutcheson S. (G2), and his career-best, a 103 for the Saratoga Special (G2), came last August. Upcoming Risen Star (G2) hero DISCREETLY MINE (Mineshaft) has been installed as a lukewarm 7-2 favorite on the morning line for Saturday's Louisiana Derby, and the Todd Pletcher-trained colt may revert to stalking tactics with plenty of additional speed in the 13-horse cast. DROSSELMEYER will look to improve upon his fourth-place effort as the favorite in the Risen Star, but he'll have to overcome the far outside post. Late runners STAY PUT and FLY DOWN could both prove dangerous. El Camino Real Derby (G3) winner CONNEMARA (Giant's Causeway), a half-brother to 2004 Derby runner-up Lion Heart, will be the horse to beat in Saturday's Lane's End over the Polytrack at Turfway Park. Other contenders include RANGER HEARTLEY (Lost Soldier), who edged Conneamara in the California Derby before finishing fifth in the El Camino Real; Risen Star third-placer NORTHERN GIANT (Giant's Causeway); and recent Palm Beach (G3) runner-up DEAN'S KITTEN (Kitten's Joy). Godolphin's MENDIP (Harlan's Holiday), a smashing 6 1/4-length winner of the Al Bastakiya S. at the same about 1 3/16-mile distance, could earn a trip to the Kentucky Derby with a victory in Saturday's U.A.E. Derby on the Dubai World Cup undercard. The unbeaten colt will have Frankie Dettori up. Sunday's Sunland Derby was upgraded to Grade 3 status and features a lofty $800,000 purse. CONVEYANCE (Indian Charlie), a front-running winner of the Southwest (G3) and San Rafael (G3) this season, will be at the New Mexico track for Bob Baffert, and Risen Star runner-up TEMPTED TO TAPIT (Tapit) and Gotham (G3) third-placer NACHO FRIEND (Friends Lake) will both invade from the East Coast.
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