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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS APRIL 16, 2010 by Dick Powell Last weekend's racing at Oaklawn Park turned out to be everything I hoped it would be; and then some. Perfect weather and the appearance of the undefeated ZENYATTA (Street Cry [Ire]) sparked a record crowd of 45,973 for the Apple Blossom Invitational (G1) on Friday and the big mare did not disappoint. Yes, there was no Rachel Alexandra (Medaglia d' Oro) and the conditions of the race that were changed in anticipation of the expected match-up made it hard for anyone to ship in and carry the weights they were assigned. Still, Zenyatta put on her usual show and the crowd was into every aspect of her pre-race routine as she posed, preened, danced and strutted her way to the post. She broke last and stayed there behind a very slow pace as the front four waited for their execution. Around the far turn, Mike Smith asked her for run and she blew by her four overmatched rivals as they straightened out for home. From there it was just a matter of how much Zenyatta would win by and the final margin was 4 1/4 lengths. Her final time for the nine furlongs was a pokey 1:50.71 as she earned a lowly 93 BRIS Speed rating. Still, I didn't hear any complaints about her performance as most fans were there to get a glimpse of one of the sport's all-time greats. With their appetite whetted from Friday, it was no surprise that 61,531 showed up on Saturday for the Arkansas Derby (G1). Run under sunny skies with a stiff headwind coming from right to left, the $1 million Kentucky Derby (G1) prep race attracted a good field of nine with Noble's Promise (Cuvee) as the 17-10 favorite. Second in the wagering was Wayne Lukas' Dublin (Afleet Alex), and Super Saver (Maria's Mon) was bet down to 9-2 after opening at 8-1. Dismissed at odds of 17-1 odds was LINE OF DAVID (Lion Heart), who looked like the speed of the race but was being tested for class in his graded stakes debut. Under the allowance conditions of the Arkansas Derby, Line of David received four pounds since he had not won a stakes race. At the start, Super Saver broke a bit flat-footed with Calvin Borel as Jon Court gunned Line of David to the front. Into a pretty strong headwind, Line of David ran his first quarter in :22.65 as Borel settled Super Saver about three lengths behind him. Terry Thompson had Dublin much closer to the pace than he has been racing as he stalked three wide in third place. With a half mile in :46.26 and six furlongs in 1:10.75, it looked like it would be just a matter of time before Line of David would come back to the field but it never happened. Borel had to use Super Saver hard to close the gap around the far turn and he appeared that he would go by as they reached the eighth-pole. Thompson had Dublin in a furious drive on the outside and it looked like Super Saver had more to worry about on his outside than his inside. But, amazingly, Line of David battled on to the wire and wound up winning by a hard-earned neck over Super Saver, with Dublin another neck back in third. For the winner, Line of David showed that his last two starts were no flukes when trainer John Sadler put him on the turf and added blinkers. Line of David responded with two gate-to-wire victories at Santa Anita so it wasn't a total surprise that he prospered in his dirt debut. By Lion Heart (Tale of the Cat) out of a Capote (Seattle Slew) mare, he is very suspect to get 10 furlongs in two weeks but looks like a horse that Sadler can have a lot of fun with the rest of the season. In only his second start of the year, Super Saver ran a tremendous race and, if he comes out of it in good order, should be able to move forward. He chased the lone speed for the entire race and was game as could be. Dublin ran a spectacular race chasing three wide but the negative for him is what does a hard race do to a horse making his third start of the year? The only horse making up any ground in this "merry-go-round" race was Uh Oh Bango (Top Hit) as the first three horses out of the gate finished in that order. Line of David's final time for the nine furlongs was 1:49.37 as he earned a BRIS Speed rating of 99. It will be interesting to see what Sadler does with him as his other Derby prospect, SIDNEY'S CANDY (Candy Ride [Arg]), is also a "need-to-lead" type. Over at Keeneland, the Blue Grass S. (G1) was run at nine furlongs on the Polytrack and it made the Arkansas Derby look like a chalk parade. The only horse in the race that had won on a race on a synthetic track was Codoy (Bernstein), who captured the John Battaglia Memorial at Turfway Park. The rest were all turf or dirt horses. Reflecting the wide open nature of the Blue Grass, seven horses went off at odds between 3-1 and 9-1. The other two horses left were let go at 30-1 and 40-1. Naturally, the longest shot in the field won as STATELY VICTOR (Ghostzapper) pulled off the shocker by 4 1/4 easy lengths. All we can say about this year's Blue Grass is that nine horses competed and they were able to race nine furlongs which should help their conditioning for future races. It doesn't look like any legitimate Derby contenders will come out of this race but who knows; it was that kind of race. The winner had not finished in the money in any race on all three racing surfaces since September 2009 at Saratoga. With a pedigree that suggested that he would get better with maturity and longer races, you could have possibly used him in a superfecta, but he was pretty tough to come up with regardless. And if he was tough to come up with, what does that say about the eight that finished far behind him?
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