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CHURCHILL NOTEBOOK APRIL 30, 2010 by Frank Cotolo Churchill Downs is the focus of the world the first Saturday in May, but great racing (stakes and overnight) and wagering opportunities continue through the 42-day spring meet that ends July 4. Even some small fields that may arise from a general malaise in pari-mutuel racing these past few years doesn't stop the intense competition between the entrants. In some cases, the lack of foes increases the value of the best in the field. Players should love using that as an edge. Churchill will offer four Friday night programs (June 11, 18, 25 and July 2) and hopes are rising for a Stephen Foster (G1) edition this year that matches ZENYATTA (Street Cry [Ire]) and RACHEL ALEXANDRA (Medaglia d'Oro). The Churchill meet began with a sterling cast of conditioners, many, of course, here to compete on Derby Day. But expect some strong barns to be in action until July, including those run by last season's top-10 highest win-percentage trainers: Cecil Borel, Wes Ward, Hal Wiggins, Bernie Flint, Steve Asmussen, Dale Romans, Tom Proctor, Forrest Kaelin, Ken McPeek and Ian Wilkes. The Kentucky Oaks First and foremost, let me address the two main events this first weekend in May, doing so as closely to post time as press time allows. On Friday, the fillies provide the Derby overture with the Kentucky Oaks (G1). It sounds like a hunch bet for me to favor BELLA DIAMANTE (Lost Soldier), but those who know how I handicap will argue that the horse whose name means "beautiful diamond" in Italian suits my kind of entry. It seems that trainer Allen Milligan's filly is peaking, and her fastest-of-14-horses work at Lone Star Park to ready for this race is evidence she could be a star even though she has only been a runner-up in three black-type contests. She comes to the Oaks off a victory in a $43,000 allowance/optional claimer at Oaklawn Park on April 2. Milligan is uncertain, he says, if she can go the distance or not but says "she's aggressive, and wanting to do something more." Bella Diamante should be a good price for the support of her trainer's expectations. The Kentucky Derby I will always believe that Afleet Alex (Northern Afleet) should have won the Triple Crown and that only a disturbing and unfortunate trip in the 2005 Kentucky Derby (G1) kept him from immortality. Now, one of his progeny, DUBLIN (Afleet Alex), is set to take on the classic in an attempt to grace his sire's resume with a blood-line asterisk. There are a few reasons why I like Dublin and his trainer is one of them. D. Wayne Lukas, a multiple Derby-winning trainer, can pop into the picture again at any time with the right horse. This one could be that colt. I also like his performances coming into the classic. Dublin won the Hopeful S. (G1) at two. This year, he has finished second in the Southwest S. (G3), third in the Rebel S. (G2) and third in the Arkansas Derby (G1), which his sire won. All of these were at Oaklawn Park, a reputable breeding ground for Derby winners. He seems to be peaking at the right time. Dublin could also have the true Derby style to win. He could be dropping well back early to make a strong run from the five-eighths pole. This colt always puts in his run and this race is all about that kind of horse. Other stakes on Derby day include the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (G1) on the grass for three-year-olds and up at nine panels; the Humana Distaff (G1) for fillies and mares, four-years-old and up, at seven furlongs; the Churchill Downs S. (G2) for four-year-olds and up, also at seven furlongs; the Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (G2) for fillies and mares, three-years-old and up; and the Eight Belles Stakes (G3) for sophomore fillies going 7 1/2 furlongs. Surface report The meet began with mud but the three days covered here (we have an early deadline so we will make up the days with our next notebook) produced two fast tracks for 28 dirt races and three on the turf. The crowd was sharp with a 35-percent win average. The style for all wins shows a lack of any bias. Wire-to-wire wins totaled seven at sprints and routes for a 25-percent rate. Winning close to the pace happened 32 percent of the time and closers took the races 43 percent of the time. On the turf, two of three races went wire-to-wire. Trainers Steve Margolis is off to a better start than the rest on the first three programs with a trio of victories from his barn. James Baker, John Sadler, Greg Foley, Steve Asmussen and Lon Wiggins all doubled. There were no first-time starter wins. HORSES TO WATCH Saturday (4/24) 3RD -- NIKKI DARLING (Southern Image) was slow to start, raced four wide on turn, made a late bid and gained at 22-1, delivering a great track debut. 6TH -- FOREST WARFARE (War Chant) is a bet back, having won with gusto, ahead by a dozen lengths and resting the final furlong to win by six lengths. Sunday (4/25) 3RD -- ADVANTAGE MENIFEE (Menifee) made a sharp debut at 24-1, getting second by putting on the gas late. Wednesday (4/28) 6TH -- J'BOY (Vindication) dueled out from the quarter through the half and seems to like the dirt better than the Polytrack. 8TH -- BRICKYARD HELEN (Southern Image) was short and remained best of the rest until late, grabbing fourth.
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