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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS APRIL 30, 2010 by Dick Powell We now know the post positions for the 20 horses entered in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and it is very likely that it will be contested over a wet track. With that out of the way, it's time to move forward and tackle this year's Run for the Roses. Wednesday's draw was the worst possible for morning line favorite LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Smart Strike) and SIDNEY'S CANDY (Candy Ride [Arg]). The winner of the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and Norfolk S. (G1) at two and this year's Rebel S. (G2), Lookin at Lucky is a horse who runs his best in midpack and he figures to get shuffled back to the rear from post one. Even with Garrett Gomez aboard, he can outsprint ICE BOX (Pulpit), who is next to him in the gate, but there is more speed to his outside. He does have a terrific wet-track pedigree, but he better like slop since he will be eating a lot of it while stuck on the inside. For me, he's a complete toss. On the other end of the spectrum is Sidney's Candy, who drew post position 20. Yes, he has enough gate speed to overcome some of it but I can't see him getting any kind of a trip with need-to-lead types like LINE OF DAVID (Lion Heart) and CONVEYANCE (Indian Charlie) in the race. If Joe Talamo uses him too much, he'll pay for it in the last quarter. If he doesn't use him enough, he figures to be parked wide for most of the trip. The only consolation he'll have is if Saturday's expected wet track is hurting the inside horses and favoring those racing off the rail. DUBLIN (Afleet Alex) had a chance off a series of good races at Oaklawn Park this spring but he drew post 17 and his running style virtually guarantees him getting a wide trip. Same goes for AWESOME ACT (Awesome Again), who drew post 16. So once the race was drawn and the dust settled, I went from liking SUPER SAVER (Maria's Mon) to win the Derby to loving Super Saver to win the Derby. By the end of last year, you could easily argue that Super Saver was the best juvenile in America racing on dirt. With Vale of York (Ire) (Invincible Spirit) nosing out Lookin at Lucky in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) on the Pro-Ride at Santa Anita, Super Saver moved to the front of the "Juvenile Dirt" division when he romped in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill in his two-turn debut. Off for 3 1/2 months, he returned to the races at Tampa Bay for the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) where he ran a good third after leading for most of the way. His only other start this year was the Arkansas Derby (G1), where he chased runaway leader Line of David, caught him in the deep stretch, held off Dublin on the outside and then went down to a narrow defeat when Line of David surged again at the wire. Unlike his other races, Super Saver showed in the Arkansas Derby that he doesn't have to be on the lead to run well. Considering that he chased the winner for nine furlongs, the fact that he was still running strong at the wire indicates to me that he's sitting on a big race on Saturday. He will be making only his third start of the year on a track over which he won a Grade 2 stakes. In both of his starts this year, he conceded at least four pounds to the winner. Now he gets to race at equal weights. Super Saver broke his maiden in the slop at Belmont Park going a mile by seven lengths so he seems to have all his bases covered. Plus, he's ridden by Calvin Borel who has won two of the past three Derbies and certainly knows his way around the Churchill Downs oval. I'm expecting Rafael Bejarano to send Line of David to the front from post 5 as his job will be to help out stablemate Sidney's Candy. Borel should be able to draft in behind him while saving ground. The outside speed horses will have to be used hard and if Super Saver relaxes like he did in Arkansas, he'll get a good trip. I'm not worried about his pedigree, being sired by Maria's Mon, who sired 2001 Derby winner Monarchos. Super Saver's dam, Supercharger (A.P. Indy), was an allowance winner for the Phipps family and is from the great female family of Numbered Account(Buckpasser). A.P. Indy not only is a source of stamina in today's pedigrees but also a major producer of wet-track winners. Plus, how many times have we seen major races like the Derby won by a trainer's second-string runner. Todd Pletcher has three others in here even without the injured Eskendereya (Giant's Causeway) and Super Saver would be his first Derby winner. With an expected price of 15-1 based on Mike Battaglia's morning-line, I will focus most of my bankroll on a win/place bet on Super Saver. In the gimmicks, I'll use Awesome Act, who is the best-bred horse in the field, Ice Box, who should be able to pass tired horses in the stretch and will like the wet going as most Nick Zito-trained runners do, AMERICAN LION (Tiznow), who is bred to go long on the dirt and successfully did so in his first start on dirt, and HOMEBOYKRIS (Roman Ruler), who hasn't run in 63 days but figures to finish strong with Ramon Dominguez riding for Rick Dutrow.
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