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TURF DIARY AUGUST 20, 2010 In this edition, we'll focus on Saturday's Arlington Million (G1) and Secretariat S. (G1), revisit the depth of the July 3 United Nations S. (G1), check in on the milers, and wrap up in California, with the most rousing performance we've seen on the North American turf this year. Arlington Million XXVIII: One's approach to the marquee event might be characterized as a Rorschach test, for it reveals latent views about defending champion GIO PONTI (Tale of the Cat). In my past two turf diaries (June 22 and July 17), I've defended his performances this season, emphasizing the extenuating circumstances when he's been beaten, as well as the merit of his repeat victory in the Man o' War S. (G1), however narrow. So I won't re-argue those points here. Suffice it to say that Gio Ponti is on his game -- an opinion that was bolstered when the Christophe Clement trainee blitzed five furlongs in a sharp :59 1/5 on the Oklahoma training turf course on August 12. What, then, stands in the way of Gio Ponti's attempt to make history as the first back-to-back Million winner? (I can't write that without cringing, remembering that Powerscourt [GB] was robbed of this distinction himself, thanks to that controversial disqualification in 2004. It wasn't his fault that Epalo [Ger] shied away from his tail. But I digress.) Too bad that Gio Ponti's stablemate WINCHESTER (Theatrical [Ire]) isn't standing in his way. As I've contended before, Winchester's jaw-dropping romp in the 2008 Secretariat, and his upset of Gio Ponti in the June 5 Manhattan H. (G1), underscore that 1 1/4 miles is probably his ideal trip. The Million would have gained from his presence. He took a month off after his third in the 1 3/8-mile United Nations, returning to the worktab on August 9 at Saratoga, and apparently isn't quite ready for action just yet. The field for this year's Million, while not anywhere near as deep as the United Nations, still has a couple of prime contenders who are in the form of their lives at the moment. Before looking more closely at them, I'm tempted to compare the 2010 Million to last year's field. The 2009 Million lured more bona fide Grade/Group 1 horses, but several of them failed to run up to their best, especially Presious Passion (Royal Anthem), Gloria de Campeao (Brz) and Einstein (Brz), along with the frustrating Cima de Triomphe (Ire) (Galileo [Ire]). As a result, Gio Ponti only had to defeat a pair of outsiders in JUST AS WELL (A.P. Indy) and the ill-fated Stotsfold (GB). This time, he figures to get a sterner challenge. I was really looking forward to Stotsfold's return visit for the Million. Not only did he dramatically outperform expectations last year, but he appeared to be even better this campaign. The recent news of his death from colic came as a bitter blow. In his absence, we'll have the next best thing in TAZEEZ (Silver Hawk), who was just nailed late by Stotsfold in the May 27 Brigadier Gerard S. (Eng-G3) at Sandown. Actually, Tazeez is a lot better than the "next best thing to Stotsfold." As trainer John Gosden pointed out, Tazeez improved quite a bit from that effort in the Brigadier Gerard. The Shadwell Stable colorbearer returned with a bold front-running display in the June 16 Prince of Wales's S. (Eng-G1) at Royal Ascot, where he battled on determinedly for third to the Juddmonte duo of Byword (Peintre Celebre) and Twice Over (GB) (Observatory). Formlines don't come much stronger than that. Twice Over came back to capture the Eclipse S. (Eng-G1), and he and Byword just finished an excellent second and third, respectively, to a resurgent Rip Van Winkle (Ire) (Galileo [Ire]) in Tuesday's Juddmonte International (Eng-G1) at York. Tazeez has raced once since the Prince of Wales's, finishing third in a strong renewal of the Princess of Wales's S. (Eng-G2) at Newmarket on July 8. Making his first start at 1 1/2 miles, he tried to lead throughout, but tired late and yielded to Sans Frontieres (Galileo [Ire]) and Redwood (High Chaparral [Ire]). Tazeez still outgamed the high-class Spanish Moon (El Prado [Ire]) by three-quarters of a length for third-place honors. Like Twice Over and Byword, Sans Frontieres and Redwood have boosted the value of Tazeez's form. Sans Frontieres, a leading European candidate for the Melbourne Cup (Aus-G1), returned to take last Saturday's Geoffrey Freer S. (Eng-G3) at Newbury, and Redwood captured the July 30 Glorious S. (Eng-G3) at Goodwood. To tie up the form neatly with a ribbon, Glorious runner-up Sri Putra (Oasis Dream [GB]) had previously gotten to within a half-length of Twice Over in the Eclipse. Although Tazeez is in career-best form at present, his development probably hasn't come as a big surprise to connections. In 2008, he landed the ultra-competitive Cambridgeshire H. at Newmarket, and when he followed up in the Earl of Sefton S. (Eng-G3) over the same course and distance in his 2009 debut, Gosden made a revealing comment. "A few years ago," Gosden told Racing Post, "I had a horse called Halling who I had hoped to do this with (the Cambridgeshire/Earl of Sefton double), but unfortunately he went elsewhere, so it is lovely to actually have a horse to come and do it." Halling went on to become a multiple Group 1 star for Godolphin. I wouldn't push the parallel too far, or take it too literally, but the very fact that Gosden saw fit to pronounce Halling's name in connection with Tazeez might be a significant clue. Tazeez's tactical speed is also an asset. Unless someone else is intent on the lead, look for him to stride forward with Richard Hills. Fellow European shipper SUMMIT SURGE (Ire) (Noverre) doesn't have the same glitzy form as Tazeez, but he's definitely on the upswing and will enjoy fast ground. A borderline Group 3 performer/handicapper when formerly based in Ireland, he has progressed into a Group 2 winner for new trainer Luca Cumani. Summit Surge first hinted that he was improving with his runner-up effort in the May 30 Premio Carlo Vittadini (Ity-G2) at a mile, beaten a length by Italian/German Group 1 hero Pressing (Ire) (Soviet Star). He was set to line up at Milan again on July 4, but was forced to scratch, bizarrely, because of mosquito bites. Hence Summit Surge entered the July 24 York S. (Eng-G2) off a break of nearly two months. Nevertheless, he relished the stretch-out to 10 furlongs, 88 yards, and stayed on strongly to prevail by 1 1/4 lengths. Cumani later told Racing Post that he'd been "dying to put him over" 1 1/4 miles "ever since we got him," adding that the York "was the right race and the right opportunity." Can the same be said of the Arlington Million? The York didn't have much depth at all. The best one can offer is that third-placer Allybar (King's Best) had earlier been a near-miss third in the Dubai World Cup (UAE-G1), but considering that he had just been crushed in the Prince of Wales's, his performance is more suggestive of a horse gradually coming back to form after Dubai. Similarly, Group 2 victor Monitor Closely (Oasis Dream [GB]) hadn't run since his third in last year's St Leger (Eng-G1), so his subpar seventh at York is hardly a true bill. Tellingly, the York runner-up was beaten out of sight in the Juddmonte International. Cumani targeted Arlington for Summit Surge in part because he believed that Gio Ponti was likely leaning toward the August 28 Pacific Classic (G1). Now the champion is lining up after all, and Summit Surge's job got that much harder. Moreover, he needed those extra 88 yards down the lengthy stretch at York to get up in time; he'll have to strike top gear sooner than that here. Although Summit Surge could be underestimated in this spot, and benefits from having a red-hot Kieren Fallon aboard, he looks up against it on bare form. DEBUSSY (Ire) (Diesis [GB]) rates as the second-stringer from the Gosden yard, but he does have something in his favor: two of his better efforts have come at about 1 1/4 miles, over turning, left-handed courses that put a premium on agility. In early 2009, he beat eventual Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1) queen Midday (GB) (Oasis Dream [GB]) (before she was at her best) in a conditions race at Epsom, and on May 6, he garnered the Huxley S. (Eng-G3) at Chester. While his Huxley victims included Sans Frontieres, Redwood and Stotsfold, it's only fair to point out that no one got involved from off the pace in a nearly merry-go-round affair. Gosden has said that Debussy should take to Arlington well, but that's merely a prerequisite for his upsetting the apple cart. Debussy needs to step up off his last pair -- a seventh in the Prince of Wales's and a fourth to Summit Surge at York -- to have any chance. The four-year-old colt is well-bred, however, being out of a half-sister to King George VI and Queen Elizabeth S. (Eng-G1) winner Belmez (El Gran Senor) from the family of top-class Japanese filly Red Desire (Manhattan Cafe). Aside from Gio Ponti, the other serious American hopefuls are exiting the local prep, the July 17 Arlington H. (G3) at this distance. RAHYSTRADA (Rahy) was an impressive winner on that occasion, defeating defending champion Just as Well by a comfortable half-length. Even better for his Million prospects, Rahystrada projects a similar trip on Saturday. Perfectly ridden by Inez Karlsson, the Byron Hughes charge drafted just off a tepid pace, saved ground relative to the deep-closing Just as Well leaving the far turn, and delivered the coup de grace with a smart turn of foot. Rahystrada was gone by the time that Just as Well found his best stride, and appeared to have a little more up his sleeve as he crossed the wire. If Tazeez looms as Gio Ponti's most serious European challenger, Rahystrada is his most dangerous domestic threat. From the family of champion and Breeders' Cup Mile (G1) star Cozzene (Caro [Ire]) Rahystrada flashed talent as a juvenile in 2006 for Frank Brothers, but it took him three years to fulfill that early promise. When he broke through with a nearly 57-1 shocker in the River City H. (G3) last November, Hughes revealed that the chestnut gelding had overcome his past problems and was "just getting better and better." That pattern is continuing this season. Third to the now-retired Karelian and Gio Ponti in his reappearance in the Tampa Bay S., Rahystrada was a troubled third in the Dixie S. (G2) prior to his convincing win in the Arlington 'Cap. If he can unveil a similar move at the top of the stretch in the Million, he'll make Gio Ponti pull out all the stops to catch him. Precisely because Rahystrada was so decisive last time, those beaten in the Arlington 'Cap have their work cut out for them to turn the tables. Just as Well was disadvantaged by trying to come from off a slow pace, and he was angled out wide turning for home, but chances are that he'll be subject to the same circumstances in the Million. Shadwell's TAJAAWEED (Dynaformer) closed from dead last for third, but he'll pick up 12 pounds and will carry level weights on Saturday. His back class from Europe doesn't inspire any additional confidence. MARSH SIDE (Gone West) had perhaps the most upside of the defeated, since he was making his comeback for Neil Drysdale, but he's been withdrawn from the Million in favor of Sunday's Sky Classic S. (Can-G2) at Woodbine. GENERAL QUARTERS (Sky Mesa) was treading gingerly on the firm ground when sixth in the Arlington 'Cap, and unless the course gets a real downpour, he shouldn't do any better in the main event. Secretariat: In the wake of his dynamic victories at Colonial, PADDY O'PRADO (El Prado [Ire]) deserves to be the even-money favorite on the morning line for this sophomore prize. His 1 1/2-length margin in the July 17 Virginia Derby (G2) wasn't as gaudy as his three-length decision in the June 19 Colonial Turf Cup (G2), but in another respect, it was even better. The Dale Romans pupil made an eye-catching move on the inside, darted around a rival to sustain his momentum, and dove back to the fence -- all at top speed in a fine display of athleticism. "Paddy" simply had too many gears for his opponents, reminding us why Romans has compared him to a past pupil, Kitten's Joy, who won the Virginia Derby (G3) and Secretariat en route to champion turf horse honors in 2004. The two are even bred on the same cross: both are by El Prado (Ire) and out of Roberto-line mares. Paddy's turf form has been flattered throughout the summer. The Michael Stidham-trained WORKIN FOR HOPS (City Zip), who played second fiddle in the Colonial Turf Cup, has dominated two-thirds of Arlington's Mid-America Triple, the May 22 Arlington Classic and the July 17 American Derby (G2). This is literally his home turf, but he'll need more than home-course advantage to fend off Paddy and complete the sweep in the Secretariat. Workin for Hops was shortening stride late in the 1 3/16-mile American Derby. That could have simply been a case of idling, or getting bored in front. On the other hand, with his immediate pedigree not exactly shouting 1 1/4 miles, he might be at the end of his tether in that final sixteenth. American Derby runner-up MISTER MARTI GRAS (Belong to Me) was gaining at the end, and his form has actually worked out pretty well, albeit at the non-graded level. Successful in the June 30 Oliver S. two back at Indiana Downs, the Chris Block trainee was boosted when his victims HUDSON STEELE (Johannesburg) rolled to a good-looking score in the August 1 Jersey Derby and LONESOME STREET (Broken Vow) just missed in the July 29 Quick Call S. at Saratoga to BEAU CHOIX (Elusive Quality). Mister Marti Gras thus has some appeal as a longshot entitled to outrun his odds. Paddy's form still reigns supreme at a higher level. The Virginia Derby proved a virtually ironclad guide to the August 13 National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame S. (G2) at Saratoga. Virginia Derby runner-up INTERACTIF (Broken Vow) rebounded with a hard-scrabble win at the Spa, and Virginia Derby third KRYPTON (Rock Hard Ten) was beaten a scant head in third. Splitting them was the flying GRAND RAPPORT (Grand Reward), who prevented an all-Virginia Derby exacta, but couldn't diminish the overall impression of Paddy's dominance in absentia. The dark horse in the Secretariat is English invader WIGMORE HALL (Ire) (High Chaparral [Ire]), who makes his graded debut for Michael Bell. An unlucky second in the May 1 Newmarket S., when he was held up too far back off a slow pace, and an even unluckier, near-miss third in the June 17 Hampton Court S. at Royal Ascot, when he had traffic problems, Wigmore Hall has had better fortune in his past two. He made the most of his light weight in the valuable John Smith's Cup, a heritage handicap at York on July 10, to outduel a grizzled old veteran in King's Gambit (Silvano [Ger]), and he brushed aside Godolphin's useful Chabal (Galileo [Ire]) in an August 6 conditions event at Newmarket. If Wigmore Hall can avoid his penchant for slow starts, and if Jamie Spencer doesn't prolong his waiting tactics, the bay gelding might offer a challenge to Paddy. Note that his sire, High Chaparral (Ire), won his first Breeders' Cup Turf (G1) at Arlington in 2002. [Friday update: Wigmore Hall received a timely form boost on the eve of the Secretariat when King's Gambit came back to finish a bang-up third in the Strensall S. (Eng-G3) at York, beaten about a length by Godolphin's capable if inconsistent Rio de la Plata (Rahy).] United Nations alumni watch: As if we didn't know already how deep this year's renewal of the UN was, three of its graduates have since come back to win stakes. Most significantly, TELLING (A.P. Indy), who faded to sixth after making an early move in the UN, bounced back with a repeat victory in last Saturday's Sword Dancer Invitational S. (G1) at Saratoga. The Steve Hobby veteran finally got the kind of settle-early, make-one-run trip that he needs to flourish. Fourth to Rahystrada in a nine-furlong Keeneland allowance to knock the rust off in April, Telling was mysteriously up on the pace next time out in the May 22 Louisville H. (G3), where he understandably folded and wound up fifth. He was still a little too close early in the UN, then advanced at the top of the stretch before being relegated to sixth, but he was beaten by a respectable 3 1/2 lengths. While Telling wouldn't have had the acceleration to outkick CHINCHON (Ire) (Marju), he might have finished better with a different trip. New rider Garrett Gomez handled him patiently in the Sword Dancer, and Telling responded by driving to a 1 1/2-length score. Of course, the Sword Dancer wasn't quite as tough as the UN, and Telling also appreciated the added furlong in the 1 1/2-mile affair. The October 2 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational (G1) is likely on his agenda. He was a solid third in that race last fall, before being demoted to fourth, and mustn't be overlooked this time around either. Sword Dancer runner-up BEARPATH (Dynaformer) was coming off a fourth to Gio Ponti in the Man o' War. Still only four years old, Bearpath has already become a fairly solid performer in the division this year, and the Ian Wilkes pupil should strengthen with added maturity. We will probably see a lot more of him in the future. The same can be said for Sword Dancer third AL KHALI (Medaglia d'Oro), another four-year-old, who may not have had the most sensible trip. Wrangled back in fourth under a stout hold early, instead of being allowed to use his natural speed, the Bill Mott trainee was then asked to advance on the second of three turns. He was wide throughout, yet surged to the lead on the final turn, and only succumbed inside the final furlong. Al Khali could profit from a cutback in trip too. In contrast, the seven-year-old GRAND COUTURIER (GB) (Grand Lodge) appears to be in the twilight of his career; the two-time Sword Dancer hero of 2007-08 couldn't land a blow and reported home sixth. By the way, Sunset H. (G3) scorer MARLANG (Langfuhr), the trailer in the Sword Dancer, and Charles Whittingham Memorial H. (G1) hero ACCLAMATION (Unusual Heat), the trailer in the UN, have exposed the utter weakness of the long-distance Southern California turfistes -- with the exception of BOURBON BAY (Sligo Bay [Ire]). Before Telling, the first UN alumnus to get back on the winning track was fifth-placer GET SERIOUS (City Zip), who didn't stay the distance last time. Returning to a more congenial 1 1/16 miles in his title defense in the August 1 Oceanport S. (G3), the John Forbes charge was all heart on the front end at Monmouth. Get Serious disposed of his early pace attendant, then repelled a sustained attack from VIOLON SACRE (Stravinsky) to prevail by a neck. Violon Sacre was so rank early that he looked as if he were doing his giraffe impression with his head up in the air. Despite that show of temperament, he was all business down the stretch and appeared to have Get Serious dead to rights, but was just outgamed. They dominated the finish, pulling 2 3/4 lengths clear of third. Finally, STRAIGHT STORY (Giant's Causeway), who was a sneakily-good fourth in the UN, outclassed his fellow New York-breds in Thursday's West Point S. at Saratoga. Hopefully trainer Alan Goldberg will now raise his sights again; might the September 11 Bowling Green H. (G2) fit the bill? The ensuing success of UN fourth Straight Story, fifth Get Serious and sixth Telling makes me even more eager to see the top three back. While Chinchon is expected to make his next start in Europe, and Winchester's comeback remains to be determined, UN runner-up TAKE THE POINTS (Even the Score) is penciled in for next Friday's Bernard Baruch H. (G2) at the Spa. A wrenched ankle knocked him out of the Sword Dancer, and the Arlington Million came too soon to be a fall-back position for Todd Pletcher. Miler brigade: Take the Points will be cutting back to 1 1/8 miles for the Bernard Baruch, while classy front runner GET STORMY (Stormy Atlantic) will try to carry his speed that far for the first time. Get Stormy comes off a terrific, wire-to-wire effort in the August 1 Fourstardave H. (G2) at Saratoga, sizzling 1 1/16 miles in 1:39.09, just off the course record of 1:38.91 set by Fourstardave himself in 1991. The Tom Bush trainee was rebounding from an uncharacteristic fourth in the June 27 King Edward S. (Can-G2) at Woodbine, which had snapped a five-race winning streak dating back to last summer. Up-and-coming King Edward hero GRAND ADVENTURE (Grand Slam) just endured an unsuccessful nine-furlong test himself in the July 24 Nijinsky S. (Can-G2), but the loss didn't dent his burgeoning reputation. As has become his custom, Grand Adventure traveled exceptionally well in the early going. His natural speed, coupled with pace pressure, led him to set testing fractions on the yielding ground. He was still on cruise control at the top of the stretch, and held a clear lead at the mile mark. Inside the final furlong, however, he began to tread water, and his stablemate from the Mark Frostad barn, WINDWARD ISLANDS (Cozzene), was in full flight. The early pace in the conditions, and the six pounds he was spotting as the 123-pound highweight, proved too much for Grand Adventure. Windward Islands blew by him to win going away by 3 1/2 lengths -- a remarkable comeback from a 13-month vacation. Windward Islands, whose entire career has been punctuated by long absences, will attempt to follow up in Sunday's Sky Classic at 1 1/4 miles, with the aforementioned Marsh Side and SPICE ROUTE (GB) (King's Best) his chief opponents. Grand Adventure ran a winning race for the first mile of the Nijinsky, and that bodes well for his chances in the September 19 Woodbine Mile (Can-G1). Whoever ships in for that race will have to put up with a stiff home defense from the Sam-Son Farms colorbearer. The other notable action on the North American miler front took place in Southern California. Among the older horses, THE USUAL Q. T. (Unusual Heat) just made mincemeat of his foes in the July 24 Eddie Read S. (G1) at Del Mar. Well placed in third early with his Arabian-style tail carriage, he initially tried to take the inside path into the stretch, but Victor Espinoza thought better of it and decided to play it safe and angle out. As he did so, Shoemaker Mile (G1) winner VICTOR'S CRY (Street Cry [Ire]) stuck to the fence and ended up getting a dream trip through. It still wasn't enough to threaten The Usual Q. T., who was very much the best. Bursting clear in a few strides, The Usual Q. T. scored by two lengths, with his ears pricked. Victor's Cry finished a clear second, likely running right up to his Shoemaker form, but Acclamation flopped again in sixth. Ideally, The Usual Q. T. would have headed to the Arlington Million, and a mouth-watering clash with Gio Ponti. But in this age of synthetics, trainer Jim Cassidy has opted for the Pacific Classic on Del Mar's Polytrack. In a cross-surface form boost, Dakota Phone (Zavata), whom The Usual Q. T. had beaten in his turf prep for the Eddie Read, came back to capture the July 31 San Diego H. (G2) on the Polytrack, a stepping stone to the Pacific Classic. The biggest revelation of late has been provided by John Sadler's swashbuckling sons of Candy Ride (Arg). First came TWIRLING CANDY, a big, robust brute who extended his career mark to three-for-three in the July 21 Oceanside S. at Del Mar. That just happened to be his turf, two-turn and stakes debut, and the way this long-striding warhorse powered away, there's plenty more to come. Twirling Candy has the scope to develop into a dual-surface (or triple-surface?) threat over a route of ground, giving Sadler no end of options. The September 5 Del Mar Derby (G2) is expected to be his next port of call. Although it would mean leaving my own divisional diary, I'd love if he'd then take on older horses in the October 2 Goodwood S. (G1) at Oak Tree, which will now likely be held over Hollywood Park's Cushion Track. While Twirling Candy can go in any number of directions, SIDNEY'S CANDY (Candy Ride [Arg]) looks to have found his true calling as a turf miler with an incredible tour de force in last Saturday's La Jolla H. (G2) at Del Mar. As impressive as he was on Santa Anita's Pro-Ride earlier this season, leading me to rank him second on my wrong-headed Kentucky Derby (G1) list, nothing could have prepared me for his course record-setting romp in his turf debut. Had "Sidney" just gone out winging by himself and come home in fast time, it would have been auspicious enough. But he did a lot more than that. Dueling eyeball-to-eyeball with a one-dimensional speedster through splits of :23 and :45 4/5, Sidney could well have been involved in a suicide pact. Yet even though they had sprinted 16 lengths clear of the pack, he was not extended. As his erstwhile pace rival cried uncle, Sidney kept pouring it on. Once he forged clear through six furlongs in 1:08 4/5, and the rest of the field was still in the next zip code, it was apparent that we were glimpsing something very special indeed. Still 13 lengths on top at the eighth-pole, Sidney got the mile in a blistering 1:33 en route to finishing 1 1/16 miles in a course-record 1:39.52. His pursuers were gaining ground late, whittling the gap down to 5 1/2 lengths, but who even noticed the placegetters at that point? With this burned indelibly in the memory, I hope that Sidney is freshened in advance of the October 9 Oak Tree Mile (G2), preparatory to a tilt at the November 6 Breeders' Cup Mile at Churchill Downs. He'll be the speed of the speed there, and depending on the course conditions, he just might give them all the slip. Two-time defending champion Goldikova (Ire) (Anabaa) and her recent conqueror, Prix Jacques Le Marois (Fr-G1) star Makfi (Dubawi), will surely have something to say about that, but Sidney deserves his shot. There'll be plenty of time next year to conduct further experiments regarding his optimal distance, on turf or synthetic, or even another try on dirt; for now, let's keep him where he looks like an absolute monster.
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