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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

DECEMBER 16, 2011

by Dick Powell

The Grade 1 CashCall Futurity will be run at Hollywood Park this Saturday for the 31st time as the juvenile graded stakes season comes to a halt. In the prior 30 runnings, the first 25 run on dirt and the past five on Cushion Track, it has been one of the best barometers for future classic success.

A quick look at former winners like A.P. Indy, Snow Chief, Stephan's Odyssey, Real Quiet, Point Given and Lookin at Lucky shows that staying in training to the end of their juvenile seasons did no harm to their classic prospects the following year.

And you don't have to be a Futurity winner to go on to classic success as horses like Alysheba, Ferdinand, Thunder Gulch and Giacomo were all beaten in this spot.

This year, a field of 13 is entered for the $750,000 CashCall Futurity to go 1 1/16 miles on the Cushion Track. Bob Baffert, who has won the race a record five times, has three horses entered headlined by Drill. The Lawyer Ron colt has gone bad in his last two starts on dirt against good company but at least returns to a synthetic track (broke his maiden on Polytrack and won the Grade Del Mar Futurity). Drill doesn't have any strong excuse to rely on for his recent form, but Martin Garcia returns in the irons.

Baffert sends out recent maiden winner Sky Kingdom and he could be a real sleeper in here. Despite a pedigree that cries out for distance, he raced twice at Del Mar going 5 1/2 furlongs without any success. He came back 11 weeks later at Hollywood and broke his maiden at this distance by more than two lengths in good time and now moves up to stakes company.

By Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker, Sky Kingdom is out of a dam by Kingmambo that is a full-sister to Mambo in Seattle, who was second in the Grade 1 Travers Stakes going 10 furlongs. Sky Kingdom flew home off a slow (-11, -14) pace in his maiden win and has worked well since then. He doesn't have to improve too much to beat these.

The other Baffert runner is Liaison, who won the Real Quiet Stakes as a prep for this. The son of the late Indian Charlie broke his maiden going seven furlongs and then won going two turns at Hollywood as the 9-10 favorite in the Real Quiet. His BRIS Speed rating for his Real Quiet win was the same as Sky Kingdom's maiden win, so Liaison will have to keep improving to be in the money here.

Majestic City is an interesting horse as he has continued to do well no matter what is thrown at him. He began his career going 4 1/2 furlongs, 5 1/2 furlongs and six furlongs and won each time. He just missed against Drill in the Del Mar Futurity going seven furlongs then was a terrific second in the Breeders' Futurity (G1) going two turns at Keeneland.

Things finally went awry in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf when Majestic City gunned to the front and faded. Now, he returns to a track he is three for three over and has trained well since coming back home. Peter Miller is going to remove blinkers for the first time and add Ramon Dominguez. He's by City Zip out of a mare by Meadowlake, so there's not much stamina in his pedigree, and Majestic City has to overcome post 11.

A horse that I think has a big shot in here at generous odds is Handsome Mike. He raced evenly while in tight quarters in his career debut going 6 1/2 furlongs on the synthetic then came back to break his maiden in a turf sprint at Santa Anita. That result led Doug O'Neill to enter him in the Grade 3 Generous Stakes and he almost went gate to wire over the turf course after setting an extremely fast (+28, +22) pace.

Handsome Mike draws the rail with Corey Nakatani and has more than enough gate speed to give him options going into the first turn. He's by good young sire Scat Daddy and is out of a dam by Smart Strike, so he should be able to handle any surface, and the improving colt has trained well here in the morning. The bay colt appears to have a big upside.

I am going to toss Drill completely and make a win bet on Handsome Mike then key him in exactas up and down with Sky Kingdom, Liaison and Majestic City.


 

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