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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS FEBRUARY 3, 2012 by Dick Powell Gulfstream's road to the Kentucky Derby got underway on Sunday with the Grade 3, $400,000 Holy Bull Stakes going a one-turn mile. Run over a sloppy track that was sealed after race one in anticipation of showers that eventually hit around race five, it attracted last year's juvenile champion Hansen who was making his seasonal debut. Horses making the change from two to three are usually vulnerable in their first start. Their trainers are looking ahead to the Derby and their training regimen is not geared to being 100 percent fit first time out. They want to build up to the Derby and not have a grueling effort to start off their season. Hansen was undefeated in three starts last year and Mike Maker decided on the Holy Bull to get this season underway. With his brilliant, front-end speed, Hansen probably would have been better off going two turns first out, but a one-turn mile can give a horse a lot of conditioning and that's what Maker got out of the race. At the start, Hansen ducked in and took a few strides to straighten out. Ramon Dominguez got him going but Hansen, fresh from the layoff, ran the first quarter in :23.64, which is very fast considering how little the run-up is for one-mile races at Gulfstream. He threw in a :22.03 second quarter and opened up a clear lead on the sloppy track going into the turn. Javier Castellano had Algorithms closing the gap while racing wide around the turn and loomed boldly turning for home. Hansen was all out after three quarters in 1:10.21 and came up empty in the stretch as Algorithms surged to a five-length margin at the wire. Hansen held on for second and My Adonis rallied from far back to get third. The winner is owned by Starlight Racing and trained by Todd Pletcher. He was only the 18th most expensive yearling by Bernardini sold two years ago and is now three for three. After posting a sharp debut winner last June at Belmont, he was unsighted until his allowance return at Gulfstream when he won going 6 1/2 furlongs. Algorithms is a half-brother to Keyed Entry, who won the Grade 2 Hutcheson Stakes in 2006 on a sloppy track similar to Saturday's and was also owned by Starlight Racing. Algorithms has won both of his starts on fast tracks so he doesn't need it wet to run his best but if it does come up wet at Churchill on the first Saturday in May, watch out. Unlike last year when the three-year-olds all had a hard time breaking 100 with their BRIS Speed ratings going into the Derby, Algorithms ran a 105 which is higher than any Derby prep race winner earned last year. Hopefully it's a sign of good things to come. This week, the action shifts to Santa Anita as the Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis will be held at 1 1/16 miles on the main track. It has attracted the first two finishers from December's Grade 1 CashCall Futurity and five others going for their share of the $200,000 in graded earnings. Liaison was a late-developing juvenile last year for Bob Baffert that emerged with a win in the listed Real Quiet Stakes and then recorded a game victory in the Futurity. Even with only four starts under his belt, he shows a great deal of maturity and gives his rider many options. He has speed but is able to relax nicely to save as much as he can for the deep stretch. When handicapping Derby prep races, forget how you think the horse might run going 1 1/4 miles and focus on today's task. Whether you think Liaison is a Derby horse or not, the issue is how will he run in the Robert Lewis? I never thought Brother Derek would win the Derby, but I didn't think he could lose any of his Derby prep races either (won all three preps in 2006). Rousing Sermon rallied for second in the Real Quiet and then missed by a neck last out in the Futurity. He broke his maiden first out going five furlongs last June at Hollywood Park but as the races have grown longer, he has dropped farther behind before unleashing a devastating late kick. In his last three races going two turns, he has earned final BRIS Pace figures of 102, 106, and 105. He'll be up against it on Saturday since the small field will probably ensure a slow pace, but all Jerry Hollendorfer wants to see is the late energy he had been showing. Aqueduct has bumped up the purses for all its three-year-old prep races and Grade 3, $200,000 Withers Stakes will be offered this Saturday. It has attracted Alpha, winner of the Count Fleet Stakes last out, who is on the cusp of becoming a serious classic contender. When he won the Count Fleet, it was his first start with Lasix and he ran a 100 BRIS Speed rating which puts him into the mix of classic horses. Now, he has to start collecting graded stakes earnings and there's $120,000 available to the winner. The NYRA road to the Triple Crown will continue on March 3 with the Grade 3, $400,000 Gotham Stakes and the $1million Wood Memorial on April 7. That's $1.6 million beginning on Saturday in the Withers and Alpha will have plenty of opportunity to gain enough graded stakes earnings to be there on Derby Day.
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