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PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING JANUARY 5, 2006 Polytrack update by Tim Holland With the end of Turfway Park's Holiday Meet last Saturday and about six weeks of racing in the books, this is a good time to reassess the performance of the new Polytrack surface. Through the Fall Meet in September and early October, a few changes had been noted and it is interesting to determine if these trends have been duplicated. By installing the Polytrack, Turfway's management hoped to gain a fair and consistent racetrack that would remain, most importantly, safe through the harsh and changeable winters conditions that Kentucky experiences. With fewer accidents and less reports of horses returning sore, that goal is being met so far. Indeed, even the small complaint that was heard in September concerning the more dusty kickback seems to have lessened, maybe due to the as expected damper winter air. Additionally, while one has to admit that the weather has not been nearly as severe or changeable as what we will expect in deep winter, the track has only canceled one card -- and that was to ensure the safety of the out-of-town trainers and their horses that would have been forced to ship to and from the track during an expected snowstorm. In comparison, the Holiday meet of 2004 lost three cards due to the weather. An equally pleasing statistic is the fact that handle has risen compared to the equivalent meet in 2004. While the overall take showed a huge gain, mostly due to the signal being taken by two new major markets, the on-track handle rose significantly, by nearly 12 percent. It has to be fair to say that this rise is a result of the larger fields that have been drawn -- an average of 10.4 percent runners per race compared to 9.9 percent for the same period a year earlier. Those numbers are, at least partly, a reflection of trainers' happiness with the surface. In addition to providing a safe, consistent surface, much has been made of Polytrack's ability to lessen the impact of track bias. Turfway had historically owned severe and changeable biases, so Polytrack has served as a good testing site. September's results suggest that the new surface has lessened the extreme speed bias from previous years. In 2004, horses leading or contesting the pace (Speed types) from the start won 56 percent of the time during the September session. From 100 sprints between six and 6 1/2 furlongs on the Polytrack in September, the win rate dropped 14 percent. The comparative numbers during the Holiday meet show a 15 percent dip for Speed types. As a result, late runners, or closers, have fared much better over the Polytrack.
For many years, it seemed that outside posts held an advantage in six and 6 1/2-furlong sprints, and this remained true in Turfway’s inaugural Polytrack meet. However, and it may still be too early to draw concrete conclusions, one has reason to suspect a change after studying the 117 races run during the more recent Holiday Meet.
*Post position stats represent win percentage from all starters for each post grouping In longer races of a mile and over, it does appear that horses coming from off the pace are also performing slightly better than in the past. The one-mile distance, with the start very close to the first turn, has always been notorious for producing inside, wire-to-wire winners. That bias is definitely less pronounced, but there is still not enough data, or change, to draw any logical conclusions. When dealing with track biases, an important factor that needs to be kept in mind is the role of the jockey. Often when there is evidence that the track is favoring front runners, many riders will gun for the lead right out of the gate, cause a speed duel and hand the race to a closer. Likewise, the reverse may happen when it is suspected the surface is playing to the advantage of closers --many jockeys will take back and the race will end up being won by the lone horse on an easy lead. This second scenario has occurred on several occasions during the meet, which reminds one to be wary of plain statistics, especially with a smallish sample. However, this also serves as a reminder to pay attention to which jockeys are taking advantage of the different conditions. Indeed, there seems to be a growing division in the Turfway jockey colony between those that are reading the Polytrack well and those that are not. Jesus Castanon, Willie Martinez, Eddie Martin, apprentice Julien Leparoux and Lori Wydick dominated the Holiday Meet. Wydick, winning at 15 percent, is especially noteworthy for the value she has provided her followers by bringing home several longshot winners. During the Fall Meet, many had noted the success of turf sires over the Polytrack and, indeed, leading grass sires such as Red Ransom, Rahy, Lear Fan and Royal Academy did have their share of winners. However, more success was achieved by stallions who might be classed as "adaptable" because they are able to pass on a desirable mixture of early dirt speed combined with late turf kick. Tale of the Cat (Storm Cat) and Grand Slam (Gone West) both seem to fit this profile, in that as racehorses they performed well in sprints and routes, and both showed some ability on the turf. As sires, they are rated as "C" and "B," respectively, as turf producers (according to the BRIS Sire Stat book) and both own the same average winning distance for their offspring at 6.8 furlongs. Tale of the Cat led the sires, by wins, through the first Polytrack meet with five wins, while Grand Slam recorded four victories. Another similarity between Tale of the Cat and Grand Slam in relation to their Polytrack success becomes interesting when one looks at the immediate pedigrees of six of the seven leading sires, (by wins), over the new surface for the two meets combined.
Even though this sample is relatively small, the dominance of the Storm Cat, Northern Dancer/Mr. Prospector, Raise A Native cross is certainly significant and could be the basis of pedigrees that may spell "Polytrack."
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