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PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING FEBRUARY 17, 2006 Do January foals really have an advantage? by Tim Holland If one had driven past some large horse farms in central Kentucky during the early and late evenings these past few months, one might have noticed many barns illuminated with bright lights which would be turned off sometime before midnight. These barns would be filled with barren mares, the ones that did not get in foal from the year before, and this practice of keeping them "under lights" is designed to prepare them for the upcoming breeding season. By artificially extending the daylight hours, breeders are able to fool these mares' systems into believing that springtime is arriving in mid-February and, with the additional help of various, mostly hormonal, drugs, the mares will be ready for breeding two or three months earlier than they would if they were left standing in the pasture. Most large breeding operations will find that, in a normal year, about 10 percent of the mares they will breed in a season are either barren or maidens that are to be bred for the first time. The majority of these, as well as a few mares that have already foaled, will be covered in February, which accounts for the fact that roughly 9 percent of all Thoroughbreds are foaled each January. The desire for early foals -- the equine gestation period is just over 11 months, so mares bred in February should deliver the following January -- may seem fairly obvious in that an older foal should have an advantage over his, or her, contemporaries. Indeed, many breeders, especially those in the commercial market, prefer to let a mare remain barren for a year, rather than breed her late in the season and produce a foal late the following spring that may not appear competitive with his peers. An additional, and very important, advantage to passing on breeding the mare late in the season is that the following year she can be bred in February and hopefully produce an early, and more valuable, foal the year after. Another important reason for trying to get mares bred early is basic horse management. With many stallions having more than 100 mares to breed in the season, which is little more than 120 days long, there is little time to waste. Indeed, with many mares needing to be bred again, having already foaled in March and April, it is necessary to make use of February by breeding as many barren and maiden mares as possible. As stallions' books have grown in recent years, many breeders are tempted to get a head start and breed even earlier, and by doing so run the risk of having a foal born before January 1. There have been many rumors of this occurring in the past and of farm managers hiding the newborns until the new year to prevent them officially becoming yearlings in the first few days of their lives. To combat this possibility, the Jockey Club, toward the end of last December, sends teams of inspectors to several farms in different states to check on mares that were known to have been bred early. A look at the last six runnings of the Kentucky Derby (G1) reveals that of 108 total starters, 10 (about 9 percent) were foaled in January, which is consistent with the overall statistic. However, of these 10 runners, only Lion Heart, second in 2004, managed to finish in the top four. It would be foolish to discount a Derby contender because of this statistic, but one has to wonder if being an early foal is as much of an advantage when one considers that since 1960 only one Derby winner, Grindstone in 1996, was born in the first month of the year. Furthermore, only three Derby victors, Dust Commander (1970), Sunny's Halo (1983) and, more recently, Monarchos in 2001, were delivered in the first part of February during this same time period. The second half of February has been much more productive for Derby winners, including the last two victors, Smarty Jones (February 28) and Giacomo (Holy Bull) (February 16). Other notables who were foaled in late February include Silver Charm, Spectacular Bid and the last two Triple Crown winners, Seattle Slew and Affirmed. One could be forgiven for expecting January foals to be more successful as two-year-olds as compared to their contemporaries. However, as with the Derby, this is not necessarily the case since only one two-year-old champion since 1960, Vindication in 2002, was foaled in the first month of the year. Early February has produced only three juvenile champions, Roving Boy (1982), Gilded Time (1992) and Anees (1999), but late February once again shows a better success rate with seven divisional leaders. While Grindstone is the earliest foaled Derby winner in the last 50 years, the latest, at May 27, is Northern Dancer. His late birth date came as a result of his dam, Natalma (Native Dancer), being bred near the end of the season after being retired due to an injury. A smallish stocky colt, Northern Dancer and 1995 Derby winner Thunder Gulch (born May 23) are good examples that the speed of maturation is as important for future success as an early foaling date. Many breeders believe that while January foals may get a head start in size, they miss out on valuable nutrients that later foals receive through the better quality of milk mares produce after eating the spring grass. This richer milk promotes healthy bone development in a critical growing period of a young horse's life.
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