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BY THE GAP

MAY 5, 2006

An Insider's Observations for Derby 132

by Joe Riddell

We have all heard the saying "Horses for the Courses." The data below is an attempt to understand which horses will like Churchill Downs on Derby Day. The following information has been gathered and interpreted by an "insider." Over the last 35 years, I have been a trainer, a clocker and a high-end handicapper. During this time I have observed that Churchill, when it is dry, is a very "cuppy" track. To understand cuppy, think about the difference between walking on a beach over dry sand (cuppy) as opposed to wet sand. When I trained Thoroughbreds, I noticed that my large-hoofed horses (over 2+) did well at Churchill, while my small-hoofed horses (less than 2+) only did well when there was a lot of moisture in the track (think wet sand). To put it bluntly, a small-hoofed horse hated Churchill's dry, cuppy track.

Interpreting the data

Hoof Size: Hoof size ranges from 1 to 5. Number 1 is a small hoof, about the size of a small tea cup (3.5 inches in diameter), while a number 5 is the size of a salad plate (8 inches in diameter).

Mud: M- means the bottom of the horse's hoof, the frog, is flat on the ground. Horses with this conformation have problems with grabbing the track when it is wet.

M means the frog is slightly elevated off the ground. These horses have minimal problems with wet tracks.

M+ means the frog is high and these horses love mud.

Bends: The back of the horse shoes are "bent" down one-quarter of an inch at about a 30-45 degree angle. Bends are very important at Churchill on rainy days! When the track is wet, bends help the horse grab the track like cleats on track shoes.

PP HORSE HOOF SIZE MUD BENDS TRACK APPEARANCE WORKS
1 Jazil 2 M- B Excellent B
2 Steppenwolfer 3 M   OK B+
3 Keyed Entry 3- M   Very Good B-
4 Sinister Minister 2 M+   Fair B
5 Point Determined 2+ M   Very Good B
6 Showing Up 2+ M+ B --- ---
7 Bob and John 2+ M   Excellent ---
8 Barbaro 3+ M   Excellent A+
9 Sharp Humor 2+ M+   Very Good B
10 A. P. Warrior 2+ M   Very Good ---
11 Sweetnorthernsaint 2+ M B Very Good B+
12 Private Vow 3- M B Very Good B+
13 Bluegrass Cat 2 M+ B Very Good C+
14 Deputy Glitters 3- M B Very Good ---
15 Seaside Retreat 3+ M-   OK ---
16 Cause to Believe 2+ M+   OK C+
17 Lawyer Ron 2 M+   Excellent A
18 Brother Derek 2+ M   OK ---
19 Storm Treasure 3 M B Excellent B+
20 Flashy Bull 2+ M B Fair B-

Horses who would benefit greatly from a wet track are 1, 4, 13 and 17, plus the ones with bends.

A dry track should help the large-hoofed horses: 2, 8, 15 and 19.

Final Thoughts

Derby: If appearance and works mean anything, Barbaro wins!
Pimlico: Small-hoofed horses love this track.
Belmont: Appears to have no biases

***We hope you enjoy this new feature offered to help sort out Triple Crown contenders and would love to get feedback from you. Please e-mail editstaf@brisnet.com with any comments, suggestions or anecdotes you might have.

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