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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS MARCH 27, 2015 by Dick Powell The $10 million Dubai World Cup (UAE-G1) will be run for the 20th time at Meydan in the United Arab Emirates and for the first time since Meydan opened up six years ago, it will be run on dirt. As I have pointed out in the past, when Meydan was opened with the main track being surfaced by Tapeta Footings, the races had full fields every year. On the dirt at the old Nad al Sheba track, there were times when the World Cup only had seven starters. At Meydan, a full gate of 14 to 16 starters was the norm. With all the attention that the switch to dirt has garnered, and the appearance of 2014 Horse of the Year California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit) because of it, this year's Dubai World Cup has only attracted nine starters and one of them was quickly added when there was a defection last weekend due to injury. Before the Dubai Carnival begins, a condition sheet is released with all the races laid out months ahead of time. On Tapeta, there was not a single main track race that did not fill. This year, on the dirt, there were numerous instances of scheduled races not filling and being replaced by cheaper, $60K handicap races for horses rated 60 to 80. This is quite the comedown for a track that always had horses rated at least 95. Trainers like Mike de Kock came out at the start of the Carnival and said that he would not race over the dirt, but he quickly changed his mind as he trains for Sheikh Hamdan bin Rashid al Maktoum's Shadwell Stables and it was Sheikh Hamdan who was the primary proponent to move the main track races back to dirt. So we have dirt at Meydan and we have California Chrome as a premier American presence on a card that is very strong. The Dubai World Cup will be decided by either the Americans (California Chrome, Lea [First Samurai] and the imported Candy Boy [Candy Ride]), the locals (last year's winner African Story [Pivotal] and Prince Bishop [Dubawi]) or the Japanese (Hokko Tamurae [King Kamehameha] and Epiphaneia [Symboli Kris S]). The Americans will be very tough to beat. California Chrome can handle the distance but could lose a lot of ground from post 9. Because of the severe kickback on the dirt surface, horses that race in behind others usually hate it so their riders move outside to avoid it. Victor Espinoza, it says here, will have to send him to gain better position as the connections of the other horses have all publicly stated they need to race forwardly. If the race turns into a slugfest and falls apart in the stretch, Japan Cup (Jpn-G1) winner Epiphaneia might pick up the pieces. Most of his races have been going longer and all came on the turf. He handled shipping when he went to Hong Kong and was beaten four lengths by Designs on Rome (Holy Roman Emperor) in the QE II Cup (HK-G1) and after winning the Japan Cup by four lengths, he finished out last season with a close finish in the Arima Kinen (Jpn-G1) behind Gentildonna, who made mince meat of her competition in last year's Sheema Classic (UAE-G1). Epiphaneia is a mystery on dirt and the kickback could be a big problem, but he will be the strong horse in the stretch. His countrymate, Hokko Tamurae, is not a mystery on dirt as he is a Grade 1 winner over it in Japan and like 2011 World Cup winner Victoire Pisa, he does his best racing at 10 furlongs. All reports coming out of Meydan this week indicate that Lea has thrived since arriving. He just missed in the Donn Handicap (G1) last out at Gulfstream Park and that race should set him up well for this. Nine furlongs is the farthest he has ever raced, but he certainly has the right running style and Joel Rosario should break him running from the gate. The local horses have competed at the Dubai Carnival for years and a pair of eight-year-olds (African Story and Prince Bishop) could be taken for granted. Big Mistake! African Story won this race last year on the Tapeta and captured the final round of the 1 1/4-mile Maktoum Challenge (UAE-G1) on the dirt last out. His final time of 2:04 4/5 seconds was especially good since the race was run much earlier in the day and the track had not firmed up like it will this Saturday night when the sun goes down. Stablemate Prince Bishop unleashed furious rallies in the stretch to just miss in the last two legs of the Maktoum Challenge. He likes to go way outside for a clear run and will be coming again. These veteran performers have taken to the dirt like they have raced on it all their lives. One horse that deserves honorable mention is world traveler Side Glance (Passing Glance). At the age of eight, the multi-millionaire's accomplishments include a Group 3 victory in England; a Group 1 score placings in the prestigious Cox Plate (Aus-G1) and Caulfield Cup (Aus-G1) in Australia; a pair of thirds in the last two runnings of the Arlington Million (G1) stateside; and a fourth in the past two runnings of the Dubai World Cup. Throw in some trips to Hong Kong and Singapore and this guy's passport has been filled up in a remarkable career. In an upset, I am going to go with Japanese invader Hokko Tamurae to take down the $6 million first prize. He has won his last three starts, two of them Group 1s, and had the perfect setup last month when he beat listed stakes foes as the 1-to-20 favorite. An earner of more than $8 million, Hokko Tamurae has won 15 of his 29 lifetime starts. Last year, Hokko Tamurae raced in the World Cup on the Tapeta, ran poorly, then suffered a severe case of colic and had to be left behind before he was well enough to return to Japan. He has recovered nicely and should take full advantage of the dirt course to pull off the upset.
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