|
|
HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS SEPTEMBER 22, 2006 by Dick Powell There's an old joke about a guy that bets basketball. Night after night he loses, but he keeps on betting basketball. One night he calls his neighborhood bookie and asks for the betting lines on the basketball games. The bookie says there aren't any basketball games being played that night but that he could give him the betting lines on the hockey games instead. The bettor says, "Hockey! -- what the heck do I know about hockey?" For me, it's Fairplex Park. What do I know about Fairplex? With $988,445 from a three-day carryover going into Wednesday's card, even I brushed up on Fairplex. I have never made a bet on the track in Pomona, California, site of the Los Angeles County Fair each September, but there I was downloading my BRIS Ultimate Past Performances. Nor am I a Pick 6 player. Rarely do I make multiple race bets, let alone Pick 6s. I know how much value Pick 3s and Pick 4s provide, but I rarely cash tickets on them. My betting strategy is win bets that are protected by exactas. I get the low takeout of the win pool and if I run second I have a good chance of cashing a solid exacta. But $988,445 of carryover that is someone else's money presents the unusual opportunity of betting with negative takeout. That is, the carryover money exceeds the takeout of the new money, including mine, that is bet into today's pool. As long as your money is not in the carryover pool, you can be betting into a pool with negative takeout. But, still, it's Fairplex and the question remains, "What do I know about Fairplex?" Nothing to worry about thanks to the BRIS Ultimate Past Performances. For Fairplex, most of the races are run around at least two turns and early speed is extremely important. At six furlongs, the impact value of "early" running styles is 1.91, which means that early running styles win 1.91 times their expected share of races. All the three other running styles are below 1.0, which means that they win less than their expected share of races. Post position is also important at Fairplex but not as important as early running styles. At seven furlongs, the impact value of early running styles is 2.05 and the horses breaking from the rail have an impact value of 1.87. However, horses breaking from posts eight or farther out have an impact value of 1.59, so the rail is an advantage but horses can win from the outside -- especially if they have early speed. In races at 1 1/16 miles, which go around three turns, early running styles win a disproportionate amount of the races and the inside is the place to be. Now that I had the winning profiles of the three distances that would comprise races 6 through 11, it was time to get to work. Not being a Pick 6 player to begin with, there was no sense in my risking much of my bankroll, so I limited my ticket to only 24 combinations. The first two legs were successful as favorites won both races 6 and 7. Race 8 killed me, though. A seven-furlong event for $8,000 claimers that have not won two races lifetime, I missed the very logical VIRGO GENIUS (Beau Genius), who not only had good speed and an inside post but was dropping down from unrestricted $12,500 claimer. A rider switch to Tyler Baze only added to the pain. Virgo Genius outsprinted his rivals into the first turn and dominated from there to win by 1 1/2 lengths as the tepid 28-10 favorite. It was one of those races when it's over and you look at the winner's past performances, you can't believe you didn't use the horse. To paraphrase the late John Campo's comments about jockey Jean Cruguet's chances to stay out of trouble in a two-minute race aboard the immortal Seattle Slew, a Pick 6 provides a lot of races to make a mistake and once I did, it was over. I was out in leg three and now had to root for five of six. I hit the next race when SIGNORETTO SIG (Signoretto [Fr]) rallied from far off the pace to win going away for David Flores at $18.80. In the featured 10th race, the Black Swan S., I had the favorite, Spenditallbaby (Unusual Heat), who took the lead turning for home in the 1 1/16-mile event but couldn’t hold off the late charge of KIMMY POTTER (Broken Vow), who broke her maiden last out at Fairplex going six furlongs in fast time but had a strong pedigree for distance. Sent off as the 26-10 second choice despite being 6-1 on the morning line, the public backed the right horse as Michael Baze gave her a terrific inside-out trip. In the final leg, I keyed Macapule (Mex) (Orange Sunshine) at 7-2, but he could not get by the 14-1 upset winner WALTZ TIME (Dance Floor) despite having the length of the stretch to do so. With a longshot winning the last race, the Fairplex Pick 6 paid $74,794 for six out of six and $455 for five out of six. Three wins and two seconds don't add up to much, but at least I got some thrills out of it and only risked $48. And, thanks to BRIS, I had a fighting chance. Last Saturday in Belmont's 6TH race, ON BOARD AGAIN (Awesome Again) was a very impressive winner of a first-level allowance event going a mile. Trained by Bobby Frankel, he won his career debut impressively at Gulfstream in January then went on the shelf until Saratoga where he just missed in a very fast allowance event going seven furlongs. On Saturday, he chased a fast pace of :45.34 for the half and looked to take over three wide as they approached the top of the stretch. With the demanding fractions, it looked like speed might collapse and Superfly (Fusaichi Pegasus) came flying on the far turn looking like he would blow right by the field. With three quarters in 1:10.18 and all the momentum in Superfly’s favor, it didn't look good for On Board Again, but Javier Castellano went to work on him and was able to regain the lead in the shadow of the wire. On Board Again covered the mile in 1:35.17, showed tremendous heart and earned a stakes-quality BRIS Speed figure of 105. It will be interesting where Bobby Frankel runs him next, but he showed he's ready to take a shot in prime time.
 Send this article to a friend
|
|
