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PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING JANUARY 13, 2006 Overlay First-Time Starter Sires by Tim Holland Handicappers should often be reminded that the key to success at the betting windows is to locate value. One tool that can be used to accomplish this goal is the TSN Sire Stat Book, which rates every stallion that had runners the previous year in several different categories. Many of the top rated, "A" or "A+," sires in the individual situations are obvious -- such as Sadler's Wells on the turf, or Danzig with first-time starters -- but looking at highly ranked sires that are less famous can often lead to overlays. Twelve months ago, this column suggested following the first-time starters from eight selected stallions who were all rated A or A+ in the then recently published 2006 TSN Sire Stats book. Horseplayers that followed each one of these sires' debutants from February 3 (when the article was published) until the end of the year were rewarded with a healthy flat bet profit:
As one can see, much of the profits were derived from following first-time starters by MUTAKDDIM (Seeking the Gold). A Group 2-placed stakes winner in England, Mutakddim owns a stallion's pedigree coming from the same family as Not for Love, Polish Numbers, Private Account and Rhythm, and he's sired more than 50 stakes winners, including Test S. (G1) winner and millionaire (and incidentally debut winner) Lady Tak. Despite this resume, the Kentucky-based Mutakddim is not considered "commercial" and many of his offspring end up with connections that are less familiar to the betting public. This can be to the advantage of the sire's followers. In 2006, his offspring Jan Bo Nan, Tak Man, and Muted Word, trained by Rick Hiles, Herbert Jones and Scott Sowle, respectively, all returned more than $30 when breaking their maidens at first asking. WEST ACRE (Forty Niner) was another on last year's list whose pedigree spells stallion. By the proven sire of sires Forty Niner, he comes form the same female family as Pulpit, Tale of the Cat and Johannesburg. Being unraced and standing in Florida, it has been tough for West Acre to get established. While he has just two stakes winners, including Bonnie Miss S. (G2) victress Ivanavinalot, to his credit, nearly 80 percent of his runners have become winners. Similar to Mutakddim, many of West Acre's progeny are trained by "under the radar" type handlers, which may have helped 2006 first-time starter winners Pleasure Seeker and Carriette's Acre, trained by Kathleen O'Connell and Jami Poole, respectively, to return more than $20. Storm and a Half (whose 2006 runners included La Brea S. [G1] winner Downthedustyroad), Time Bandit and Seneca Jones were also profitable to follow in the first time out situation last year, while Suggest, Five Star Day and Old Topper were not. For 2007 sires that are rated A and A+ in the Sire Stat book, Mutakddim and West Acre must be included again in the list of those that have a high-win rate and also may provide value with their firsters. The first new addition to the list, and possibly the most exciting, is ERLTON (Buckaroo), who won his own debut by more than 11 lengths and whose biggest moment came through winning the Hirsch Jacobs S. on the 1999 Preakness day undercard at Pimlico. Erlton retired to stud having won eight races out of 27 starts, and, from a smallish first crop of 23 foals, the 11-year-old stallion was represented by 13 runners in 2006, of which eight became winners. Of these performers, four won their debut, including Fine N Dandy, who wired her field at odds of more than 33-1, and Ruston Robber, who returned $16 in his front-running victory, both at Evangeline Downs. As Erlton is based in Louisiana, one can expect to see the majority of his runners in that state. Having been represented by five debut scorers in 2006, it may behoove handicappers to watch out for the Florida-based EXCHANGE RATE (Danzig) this year. Trained by Wayne Lukas, Exchange Rate also broke his maiden at first asking before finishing second to Dixie Union in his next two starts, both Grade 3 events in California. After winning the Risen Star S. early in his three-year-old season, Exchange Rate was put on the Triple Crown trail, for which he possibly did not possess the needed stamina. Indeed, his best victory came via the seven-furlong Tom Fool H. (G2) in his final start. With his oldest runners being four-year-olds of this year, Exchange Rate has made a good start to his stallion career with four stakes winners, including Swap Fliparoo, who won the Test S. (G1), and Kentucky Oaks (G1) runner-up Ermine. Exchange Rate's biggest payoff on a winning debutant in 2006 was the $33.80 that Sugar Exchange returned when winning at Belmont, while Darby's Pal was dispatched at odds of more than 8-1 in her successful first try. Maybe notable is the fact that Darby's Pal's victory came over 1 1/16 miles on the turf at Calder, which suggests that players should not ignore the offspring of this stallion in any situation in their debuts. Another sire to watch with connections to Florida is ELTISH (Cox's Ridge), who stood his first few seasons in that state before being relocated to New York. As a racehorse, while a good enough two-year-old to finish second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), Eltish was more stamina than speed oriented, a quality that may have been inherited from his sire, Cox's Ridge. However, the offspring of Eltish are fast and precocious, making them useful for handicappers to keep an eye on in their first few starts and this quality may be passed down from Eltish's broodmare sire, Danzig. This precocity was displayed last summer by the two-year-olds Shananies Song, who returned over $22 to her supporters when winning at Philadelphia Park, and by Captain Cameron, who finished second at Calder at odds of 22.50-1. As with Erlton and Exchange Rate, LITE THE FUSE (Buckaroo) won his first start, but his debut came as a three-year-old. Trained by Richard Dutrow, Lite the Fuse, who also like Erlton is by Buckaroo, was a very talented sprinter, winning the Carter H. (G1) on two occasions as well as finishing second twice in the prestigious Metropolitan H. (G1). As a stallion Lite the Fuse has passed along his speed, but many of his offspring show their best form as three-year-olds or up. In 2006, two of Lite the Fuse's offspring -- Ferocious Fires and Sister Suzy -- both made winning debuts as three-year-olds, with the latter returning more than $28. Ferocious Fires meanwhile went on to win all of his next four starts, making him a perfect five for five, and he should be a major force in New York-bred races this year. Winner of his first three races, the very fast RICHLY BLENDED (Rizzi) went on to win the Gotham S. (G3) and Withers S. (G3) before running poorly in the Preakness S. (G1) prior to his retirement. Sent to stud in California, Richly Blended was represented by a crop of two-year-olds in 2006 in which 16 started and seven won at least once. Five of these broke their maidens at first asking, and while none returned huge mutuels, Cosma Nan and Magnificent Blend were both sent off at odds of more than 4-1. Richly Blended has 30 two-year-olds to look forward to this year. The final stallion on this list, GIBSON COUNTY (In Excess [Ire]), also had his first runners last year. Trained in California by Bob Baffert, Gibson County was a solid sprinter who won five times from 25 tries for earnings of more than $375,000. From just eight starters in 2006, four were winners, including Genuine Talent, who won his first race and then scored in the Willard L. Proctor Memorial S. Another debut winner by Gibson County was Game Cat, who returned $25.60.Gibson County has 20 two-year-olds of 2007 and, like those of Richly Blended, they should be watched for in California. First-time starter sires to watch for in 2007. Mutakddim
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