|
|
HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS JANUARY 19, 2007 by Dick Powell I have a secret. Actually, I have a lot of secrets but this one I will divulge. At night, when the sun goes down and most Thoroughbred tracks are finished, I love to bet Meadowlands Harness. Their racing is ultra-competitive and offers some pari-mutuel value that other breeds have trouble matching. Because it is the premier Standardbred track in North America -- sorry, Woodbine/Mohawk -- it attracts large wagering pools. Unlike many of the smaller Standardbred tracks, which have very small betting pools with the vast majority coming in at the last minute, Meadowlands has wagering pool sizes that are comparable to mid-level Thoroughbred racetracks. So, for starters, it's not counter-productive to bet on their races and find volatile swings in odds like at smaller tracks. The size of the Meadowlands wagering pools is ample enough and then some. Next is information. We in Thoroughbred racing are used to every imaginable piece of information being made available in past performances, charts or other sources. The Meadowlands web site -- www.thebigm.com -- provides its customers with lots of pertinent handicapping and racing information including a horse-by-horse analysis of every horse in every race each racing night. Dave Brower does a great job and I use his comments to see which horses are nominated for upcoming stakes races. For example, sometimes you see an inexperienced trotter coming up through the ranks that explodes to a much-improved performance. Don't wait until it's too late before learning that he might have been nominated to the Hambletonian. Brower gives you this information before you bet. Here at brisnet.com, we have harness past performances that give you 10 lines of races and speed figures that hold up well. When you consider that most of the people you are wagering against are using a track program that only has four or five lines for each horse, having 10 can be a big edge. They tell you when horses were entered and why they scratched, which the scratch program does not have room to give you. The speed figures in bold are solid and at a glance can tell you how well a horse, in general, fits with the competition. The class rating to the left of the speed figure is a gauge of how tough the field was and can give you a glimpse into what kind of company each horse has been racing against. With 10 past performance lines, you can start making your own judgments on horses going forward or backward in form. Thebigm.com has the best streaming video of any racetrack in the country and it is available to everyone. Sam McKee does a great job of calling the races, and the camera and lighting are as good as it gets for night-time racing. The races themselves are the main reason that I gravitate toward watching and wagering on Meadowlands harness. Unlike the Woodbine/Mohawk circuit, where the field seems to line up single file for the first turn and then only make their moves on the far turn, the action heats up at the Meadowlands early. With most races having 10 horses behind the gate, there is usually a mad scramble to get through the first turn. Once that gets sorted out, it then becomes a cat-and-mouse game to see who is going to pull out and make a move. As the field hits the backstretch, you'll see the horse in second on the inside tip out and go by the leader. That's the easy part. The real action is taking place farther back in the field. If you pay attention to the pan shot on the split screen, you'll see a driver near the back pull to the outside to get the drivers in front to think that they are going to make their move. The drivers in front now have to make a sudden decision to either move out and go or sit tight. Here's the risk: The drivers that sit back and wait run the risk of getting shuffled back to the rear while locked in by the outside horses on the move with nowhere to go. The drivers that take the chance of moving out to go up and challenge run the risk of being parked out for the rest of the mile. But the reward for the driver that can get the others in front to move is a perfect, second-over trip where they get to sit behind a horse who is doing all the work and make their move in the clear down the long stretch. Some nights, when speed is not holding up, horses with second-over and third-over trips are the ones getting their picture taken in the winner's circle. The past performance lines provide some truncated trip comments, but it pays to watch the races to see how each horse fared. A horse can have a perfect trip in terms of ground loss and traffic yet have no shot at winning since the race might be over by the time they get going. Harness horses have the ability to move very quickly in bursts and if you are stuck on the inside three or four spots back, you have no shot. Even though the chart or past performance line will show if the horse was parked out, it won't indicate if it was a tough trip. Recognizing this, inside posts are not always as coveted as they are on half-mile tracks. Unless the horse has speed and likes to run near the front, it can be a big detriment to draw inside. The extreme outside posts can be tough as their drivers look to drop in or have to use too much energy to stay in contact with the leaders. To me, the choice post positions are the middle ones that give the driver the ability to make sensible decisions. When handicapping prior races, pay attention to post positions and how it might have made the driver tip his hand early. A horse who is usually a midpack runner, but drew the rail, goes to the front and then tires, has a pretty legitimate excuse for coming up empty. That horse should finish his race a lot stronger next time out with a better post. I'll be the first to admit that wagering on the Meadowlands can be very frustrating. Sometimes it just seems that none of my horses can catch the flow down the backstretch correctly and get the right trip. But if you pay attention to the early races to see if there are any biases you have plenty of opportunities the rest of the night. Use the past performances that BRIS sells and you have an information edge. Then sit back and enjoy the action.
 Send this article to a friend
|
|
