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TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
Saturday's $100,000 Essex H. (G3) features a legitimate favorite in MR. PURSUIT (General Royal), but there's no standout in the 11-horse field. We've searched for some value in the well-matched field and landed upon RED RAYMOND (Deputy Commander), who turned in two commendable efforts at Oaklawn Park last year when finishing second and third to Lawyer Ron (Langfuhr) in the Rebel S. (G3) and Southwest S., respectively. Listed at 12-1 on the morning line, Red Raymond didn't carry his form forward after the Rebel, heading to the sidelines after unplaced finishes in the Arkansas Derby (G2) and Lone Star Park Derby (G3), and we'll overlook his fifth at Churchill Downs last November following a six-month hiatus. The Bob Holthus trainee improved significantly last out in a tough allowance/optional claiming event at Fair Grounds, finishing a fast-closing second by a half-length in the one-mile and 70-yard race. Five horses out of that race won their next start, and Red Raymond returns to action Saturday off a 62-day freshening. The late runner figures to have plenty of pace in front, is well drawn in post 3 and likes the track. He should be rolling through the stretch under Luis Quinonez. ABSENT FRIEND (Runaway Groom) also figures to benefit from a hot pace over a surface he favors. The well-traveled gelding appeared a bit off form when recording four straight unplaced finishes at the end of last year, but he responded with an encouraging performance when returning to Oaklawn (4-1-1-2 overall) in his 2007 debut, rallying boldly to just miss in second off a slow pace. Absent Friend captured the 2005 Essex with a stout late rush, and he's a threat to run past his rivals once again. Mr. Pursuit is very solid, winning three straight before finishing second in the Maxxam Gold Cup H., and the off track at Sam Houston last time probably didn't help him. A two-time winner in Hot Springs, Arkansas, Mr. Pursuit will likely be midpack stalking the pace before offering a serious run. The four-year-old won four of 10 at the distance, but he is stepping up to face a deeper field in this spot. SAMPSON'S SON (Lil's Lad) owns four runner-up showings from six attempts at Oaklawn and finished a respectable second to Mr. Pursuit in the Governor's Cup S. two starts back. The late-running six-year-old faces a class check in this spot, but he's earned strong BRIS Late Pace numbers in the past and will likely have a good set-up. Consider for the exotics. MORE THAN REGAL (More Than Ready) is one-for-one at Oaklawn, breaking his maiden 13 months ago, and the four-time stakes victor enjoyed a successful 2006 season. We won't count his last effort, a sixth in the Maxxam, against him because of the track, and the Steve Asmussen-trained colt wouldn't surprise us with a formidable showing from off the pace. THUNDER MISSION (Pulpit) finished second in last year's Essex and tuned up for this year's event with a solid second in an allowance/optional claiming event at Fair Grounds last out. He's got the class to challenge with his best effort, but he probably prefers a little less ground. ROTARY (Wagon Limit) is doing well presently with a current three-race winning streak, but he drew a tough post (11) for his stakes debut. We'll give him a race at this level. JONESBORO (Sefapiano) will likely be a pace factor from his outside post, but he'll likely have a difficult time sustaining his speed. COMMANDER BUCK (Deputy Commander) will need to improve significantly to be in the mix. JOEY CARSON (Lord Carson) hasn't proven himself around two turns. The sprinter could easily show speed here, but he'll have a difficult time weathering the pressure. GO NOW (Go for Gin) faces a tall task. He's shown more speed in his last couple of starts and will likely come out running from the rail.
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